Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
106 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper and surface trough will move into the region today and
provide better chances of scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms today and Friday. A surface trough will continue
to support scattered afternoon thunderstorms through the weekend.
An upper-level trough will dig into the eastern US early next
week with a frontal boundary entering the region mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level trough over the Carolinas this afternoon and
overnight as ridge has shifted slightly south of the area.
With strong insolation, relatively steep low to mid level lapse
rates resulting in moderate instability and perhaps strong late
in the afternoon. SB CAPE around 2500 J/kg. Some mid level dry
air noted on soundings and relatively high LFC with inverted V
suggest some potential for strong gusty winds. So can't rule out
an isolated severe pulse storm. With the potential for short
wave energy, enhanced lift may result in stronger potential for
convection. The latest high resolution models develop convection
in the Piedmont and move southeast across the Midlands (likely
scattered) and possibly increase toward the coastal plain.
Precipitable water near 1.89 inches so some heavy rain possible
but storm movement should limit amounts. Max temps in the mid to
upper 90s with heat index around 107 degrees. Muggy tonight
with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will again be in the mid to upper 90s with maximum Heat
Index values from 100 to around 105. Expect scattered thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening.

An upper ridge will be centered north of the forecast area Friday
with a weak inverted trough to our south. At the surface, a lee-side
trough will provide convergence for convective development. PWAT
values will remain high as abundant moisture resides over the
region with values around 2 inches. All these factors support
scattered thunderstorm development and a high chance (40%-50%)
of rain. Rain chances are not as high on Saturday as the upper
trough flattens out with little vorticity advection into the
region. Severe weather potential each day is low given the tall,
skinny CAPE profiles and little dry air aloft to promote strong
downdrafts. With less convective coverage Saturday it may be a
slightly warmer than Friday with fewer thunderstorms to disturb
diurnal heating. Overnight lows will continue to be warmer than
normal with values in the mid 70s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Late this weekend into early next week, an upper ridge prevails over
the forecast area with PWAT water values dropping to around
1.5-1.8 inches. The presence of a lee-side surface trough will
continue to promote scattered diurnal convection.

Midweek, a deep upper level trough is forecast to dig into the
eastern US. This will push a cold front into the Southeast
before stalling near the forecast area. This will support cooler
daytime temperatures and higher rainfall chances. The highest
convective activity will depend on the location and timing of
the front which will be better known over the next several days.
At this time, rainfall appears likely on Tuesday and Wednesday
for at least portions of the area. The ECMWF has leaned closer
to the GFS towards the end of the extended, keeping the stalled
upper level trough over the eastern US for a longer period of
time. High temperatures will remain above normal Sunday and
Monday with highs in the mid 90s but then fall to near normal
with increased clouds and precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper and surface trough, diurnal heating, and sufficient atmospheric
moisture expected to result in increased convective coverage
this afternoon/evening. High resolution models suggest scattered
coverage. Isolated severe pulse storm possible. Satellite
showing cumulus developing northwest of CAE at 16z with
thunderstorms in north GA moving southeast. Will add tempo
groups to terminals 20-24z. Convection will diminish mid to late
evening with mainly mid level ceilings overnight although there
could be some stratus late. MVFR fog possible at fog prone sites
AGS/OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms and some potential for late night/early morning
stratus/fog through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
409 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
190815-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
409 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Very warm temperatures combined with low level moisture will result
in heat indices well over 100 degrees and as high as 107 degrees.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and
evening as an upper disturbance moves into the region. Damaging wind
gusts will be the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat indices over 100 degrees will continue through the weekend.
Isolated severe thunderstorms will also be possible on Friday with
moderate instability and the upper disturbance over the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
337 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

SCZ027-028-037-182000-
Lexington SC-Calhoun SC-Richland SC-
337 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of east central
Lexington...northwestern Calhoun and south central Richland Counties
Until 400 PM EDT....

At 336 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Pine Ridge, or near Springdale, moving east
at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph. This storm produced a wind
           gust of 46 mph at the Columbia Metro Airport.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Columbia, West Columbia, Cayce, Springdale, Oak Grove, Red Bank,
South Congaree, Pine Ridge, SC State Farmer's Market, Columbia Metro
Airport, SC State Fair Grounds, Hopkins, New Zion, Olympia, Rosewood,
Lexington Acres Pond, Cayce Riverwalk, Silver Lake, Guignard Park and
Fort Jackson Cantonment Area.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 111 and 122.
 Interstate 77 between mile markers 0 and 11.

LAT...LON 3386 8120 3397 8120 3402 8087 3381 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 272DEG 23KT 3392 8110

LCV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
338 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW SPRINGDALE        33.94N 81.12W
07/18/2019  M46 MPH          LEXINGTON          SC   ASOS

            KCAE ASOS REPORTED 40 KT (46 MPH) WIND GUST
            ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
341 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW SPRINGDALE        33.94N 81.12W
07/18/2019  M48 MPH          LEXINGTON          SC   PUBLIC

            CAE ASOS REPORTED 42-KT (48 MPH) WIND GUST
            ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
343 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W PINE RIDGE          33.91N 81.10W
07/18/2019  M45 MPH          LEXINGTON          SC   PUBLIC

            RC-WINDS SENSOR AT SC EMD REPORTED A 45-MPH
            WIND GUST ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
352 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PROSPERITY              34.21N 81.53W
07/18/2019                   NEWBERRY           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES DOWN
            IN THE TOWN OF PROSPERITY.

&&

DA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
353 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

SCZ027-028-036-037-182045-
Orangeburg SC-Lexington SC-Calhoun SC-Richland SC-
353 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northwestern
Orangeburg...southeastern Lexington...northwestern Calhoun and south
central Richland Counties Until 445 PM EDT....

At 353 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Gaston, or 10 miles south of Cayce, moving
east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Pine Ridge, Gaston, Congaree National Park, Sandy Run, Swansea, New
Zion, Silver Lake and Lexington Acres Pond.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

This includes Interstate 26 between mile markers 119 and 140.

LAT...LON 3377 8116 3390 8111 3388 8077 3360 8088
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 286DEG 17KT 3381 8108

LCV