Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1234 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, moist advection over the Southeast will support shower and
thunderstorm development into this evening. Some thunderstorms
may produce damaging wind gusts. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible late tonight as a shortwave
moves over the area. The front will move through the region by
Sunday evening with drier air spreading into the region for
early next week. Temperatures will remain above normal into next
week with dry conditions after the frontal passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Not much change in the current thinking for this
afternoon.  There remains a slight risk of severe weather this
afternoon across much of central South Carolina and the CSRA of
Georgia. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts from
thunderstorm line segments. Highs will be in the 80s.

Many of the near term convective models continue to show shower
and thunderstorm development across the cwa beginning this
afternoon and lasting into the early evening. Continued warm and
moist advection will lead to moderate instability. An upper
level shortwave moving towards the region from the west and
southwest will help to trigger the convection this afternoon.
Regional radars currently showing some light shower development
just west of the cwa, with thunderstorms in progress over
northern GA.  This activity will continue to push east.

With 0-6 km wind shear values from 20 to 30 kts there is
potential for organized thunderstorm lines to develop. Steep
mid-level lapse rates over the area and moderate instability
increases the threat of damaging wind gusts and possibly a few
storms that produce severe hail.

Tonight: Much of the convective activity is expected to move
east of the forecast area during the late evening. However, an
additional shortwave currently associated with convection over
southern MS will move across the forecast area overnight and
may support additional convection late tonight. Overnight lows
in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front and upper trough will push through the region Sunday
morning and early afternoon with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. SPC moved the Marginal Risk of severe weather closer
to the coast last night, therefore the risk of damaging winds is
minimal. The severe weather parameters such as Lifted Index and CAPE
decrease during the day as drier air pushes into the region.

The pattern transitions to a dry zonal flow aloft Sunday Night
through Monday. High pressure aloft establishes itself over the
region on Tuesday.  Expect dry weather and very warm temperatures
for early May.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Medium range forecast models diverge starting Wednesday in terms of
the suppression of high pressure aloft over the Southeast U.S.  The
GFS aggressively breaks down the ridge axis while the ECMWF and
Canadian models keep it in place through Thursday. This model
divergence impacts the timing of convection in the forecast late
next week. Will split the middle and remain consistent with previous
forecasts to start forecasting a chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday.

A southwest flow aloft will bring a series of disturbances into the
region Friday through Saturday with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms on both days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon hours. There
will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon along with associated restrictions during periods of
heavy rain. The afternoon convection should move east of the
TAF sites in the evening with another round of showers and
possibly thunderstorms moving in overnight. There is less
confidence in rainfall at terminals overnight and therefore have
still kept mention of it out of the TAFs at this time.

With moderate low level mixing tonight, do not expect widespread
dense fog to develop. However, redevelopment of low-level
stratus deck remains possible late tonight into Sunday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK..The pattern of showers and
thunderstorms will continue Sunday. Fair weather expected
Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
931 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
051345-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
931 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms will develop some of which could produce
damaging wind gusts and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
355 PM EDT SAT MAY 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             LINCOLNTON              33.79N 82.48W
05/04/2019  E0.70 INCH       LINCOLN            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LINCOLN COUNTY EM REPORTED HAIL SLIGHTLY
            SMALLER THAN A DIME IN THE CITY OF
            LINCOLNTON. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

DA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
404 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

SCZ036-038-042030-
Orangeburg SC-Clarendon SC-
404 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of east central
Orangeburg and southeastern Clarendon Counties Until 430 PM EDT....

At 403 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Holly Hill, or 16 miles northeast of Indian
Field, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Holly Hill, Santee Cooper Regional Airport, Santee, Eutawville,
Vance, Eautaw Springs, Indian Bluff Recreation Park, Rocks Pond
Campground and Marina, Blounts Landing, Mill Creek Marina and
Campground, Foreston and Davis Station.

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 91 and 98.

LAT...LON 3350 8010 3350 8012 3348 8015 3346 8013
      3346 8015 3345 8015 3346 8016 3345 8017
      3345 8020 3344 8020 3345 8022 3340 8022
      3337 8024 3328 8045 3344 8055 3376 7999
      3371 7998
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 240DEG 48KT 3342 8038

Okulski

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
439 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

SCZ030-035>037-041-042130-
Orangeburg SC-Barnwell SC-Aiken SC-Calhoun SC-Bamberg SC-
439 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of Orangeburg...
northeastern Barnwell...east central Aiken...Calhoun and Bamberg
Counties Until 530 PM EDT....

At 438 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles east of
Aiken State Park to near Lodge, moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Orangeburg, Bamberg, Denmark, Brookdale, Blackville, St. Matthews,
Holly Hill, Branchville, Bowman, Elloree, Santee State Park, Claflin
College, South Carolina State University, Orangeburg County Airport,
Sandy Run, Edisto Gardens, Santee, North, Ehrhardt and Springfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local radio
and television stations for additional information and possible
warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 85 and 99.

LAT...LON 3356 8143 3369 8126 3366 8118 3375 8093
      3378 8101 3375 8106 3387 8100 3377 8082
      3377 8066 3348 8044 3343 8034 3332 8027
      3326 8041 3328 8048 3333 8051 3313 8089
      3306 8090 3310 8094 3303 8107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 234DEG 43KT 3354 8134 3306 8102

fwa

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
500 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

SCZ022-027>029-031-042145-
Lexington SC-Sumter SC-Richland SC-Kershaw SC-Lee SC-
500 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of eastern Lexington...
northwestern Sumter...Richland...Kershaw and northwestern Lee
Counties Until 545 PM EDT....

At 500 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Lake Murray Dam to
near SC State Farmer's Market to 10 miles south of Gaston, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Columbia, Sumter, Lexington, West Columbia, Cayce, Irmo, Forest
Acres, Camden, Springdale, St. Andrews, Dentsville, Lake Murray Dam,
Oak Grove, Shaw Air Base, McEntire Air Base, Lake Wateree Dam, Red
Bank, South Congaree, Pine Ridge and Gaston.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 126 between mile markers 0 and 3.
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 55 and 111.
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 55 and 111,  Interstate 77
between mile markers 0 and 28.

LAT...LON 3394 8038 3376 8075 3377 8082 3381 8087
      3381 8091 3383 8091 3383 8094 3388 8102
      3387 8103 3375 8106 3378 8101 3376 8093
      3366 8117 3383 8115 3406 8131 3425 8095
      3427 8083 3434 8079 3453 8044 3429 8035
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 235DEG 49KT 3404 8120 3388 8109 3367 8110

fwa

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
503 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

SCZ115-116-042130-
Northern Lancaster SC-Southern Lancaster SC-
503 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of Lancaster County
Until 530 PM EDT....

At 502 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Catawba, or 8 miles northwest of Lancaster,
moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Lancaster, Waxhaw, Elgin, Andrew Jackson State Park, USC Lancaster,
Van Wyck, Irwin, Buford, Bell Town Fire Station, Arrowood Estates,
Tradesville, Camp Creek Fire Station, Antioch, Kirk Air Base, Faith
Christian School, Unity Fire Station, Lancaster Mill, McWhirter
Airfield, Bear Creek Park and McDonald Green Elementary School.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3482 8079 3482 8056 3479 8055 3477 8052
      3473 8050 3453 8087 3463 8089 3470 8086
      3474 8088 3479 8087 3483 8090 3484 8087
      3486 8088 3494 8078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 249DEG 12KT 3481 8088

WRS