Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1234 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, moist advection over the Southeast will support shower and
thunderstorm development into this evening. Some thunderstorms
may produce damaging wind gusts. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible late tonight as a shortwave
moves over the area. The front will move through the region by
Sunday evening with drier air spreading into the region for
early next week. Temperatures will remain above normal into next
week with dry conditions after the frontal passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Not much change in the current thinking for this
afternoon.  There remains a slight risk of severe weather this
afternoon across much of central South Carolina and the CSRA of
Georgia. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts from
thunderstorm line segments. Highs will be in the 80s.

Many of the near term convective models continue to show shower
and thunderstorm development across the cwa beginning this
afternoon and lasting into the early evening. Continued warm and
moist advection will lead to moderate instability. An upper
level shortwave moving towards the region from the west and
southwest will help to trigger the convection this afternoon.
Regional radars currently showing some light shower development
just west of the cwa, with thunderstorms in progress over
northern GA.  This activity will continue to push east.

With 0-6 km wind shear values from 20 to 30 kts there is
potential for organized thunderstorm lines to develop. Steep
mid-level lapse rates over the area and moderate instability
increases the threat of damaging wind gusts and possibly a few
storms that produce severe hail.

Tonight: Much of the convective activity is expected to move
east of the forecast area during the late evening. However, an
additional shortwave currently associated with convection over
southern MS will move across the forecast area overnight and
may support additional convection late tonight. Overnight lows
in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front and upper trough will push through the region Sunday
morning and early afternoon with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. SPC moved the Marginal Risk of severe weather closer
to the coast last night, therefore the risk of damaging winds is
minimal. The severe weather parameters such as Lifted Index and CAPE
decrease during the day as drier air pushes into the region.

The pattern transitions to a dry zonal flow aloft Sunday Night
through Monday. High pressure aloft establishes itself over the
region on Tuesday.  Expect dry weather and very warm temperatures
for early May.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Medium range forecast models diverge starting Wednesday in terms of
the suppression of high pressure aloft over the Southeast U.S.  The
GFS aggressively breaks down the ridge axis while the ECMWF and
Canadian models keep it in place through Thursday. This model
divergence impacts the timing of convection in the forecast late
next week. Will split the middle and remain consistent with previous
forecasts to start forecasting a chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday.

A southwest flow aloft will bring a series of disturbances into the
region Friday through Saturday with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms on both days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon hours. There
will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon along with associated restrictions during periods of
heavy rain. The afternoon convection should move east of the
TAF sites in the evening with another round of showers and
possibly thunderstorms moving in overnight. There is less
confidence in rainfall at terminals overnight and therefore have
still kept mention of it out of the TAFs at this time.

With moderate low level mixing tonight, do not expect widespread
dense fog to develop. However, redevelopment of low-level
stratus deck remains possible late tonight into Sunday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK..The pattern of showers and
thunderstorms will continue Sunday. Fair weather expected
Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
931 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
051345-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
931 AM EDT Sat May 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe weather this afternoon. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms will develop some of which could produce
damaging wind gusts and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
343 PM EDT SAT MAY 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     HAIL             1 SSE LINCOLNTON        33.78N 82.47W
05/04/2019  E0.25 INCH       LINCOLN            GA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER ON LEWIS FAMILY ROAD REPORTED
            PEA-SIZE HAIL LASTING FROM 3:33 TO 3:38 PM
            EDT.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
355 PM EDT SAT MAY 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             LINCOLNTON              33.79N 82.48W
05/04/2019  E0.70 INCH       LINCOLN            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LINCOLN COUNTY EM REPORTED HAIL SLIGHTLY
            SMALLER THAN A DIME IN THE CITY OF
            LINCOLNTON. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

DA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
404 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

SCZ036-038-042030-
Orangeburg SC-Clarendon SC-
404 PM EDT Sat May 4 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of east central
Orangeburg and southeastern Clarendon Counties Until 430 PM EDT....

At 403 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Holly Hill, or 16 miles northeast of Indian
Field, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and pea sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Holly Hill, Santee Cooper Regional Airport, Santee, Eutawville,
Vance, Eautaw Springs, Indian Bluff Recreation Park, Rocks Pond
Campground and Marina, Blounts Landing, Mill Creek Marina and
Campground, Foreston and Davis Station.

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 91 and 98.

LAT...LON 3350 8010 3350 8012 3348 8015 3346 8013
      3346 8015 3345 8015 3346 8016 3345 8017
      3345 8020 3344 8020 3345 8022 3340 8022
      3337 8024 3328 8045 3344 8055 3376 7999
      3371 7998
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 240DEG 48KT 3342 8038

Okulski