Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Columbia, SC

782 
WWUS52 KCAE 220943
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
543 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

SCC017-027-061-085-220953-
/O.EXP.KCAE.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-190622T0945Z/
Lee SC-Calhoun SC-Clarendon SC-Sumter SC-
543 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LEE...EASTERN CALHOUN...
CENTRAL CLARENDON AND SUMTER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 545 AM EDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Columbia.

LAT...LON 3382 7992 3377 7999 3372 7997 3360 8004
      3368 8060 3435 8027 3432 8024 3437 8018
      3432 8017 3423 8011 3420 8011 3416 8016
      3415 8015 3409 8008 3408 8003 3399 7989
      3395 7998 3388 7994 3388 7988
TIME...MOT...LOC 0943Z 268DEG 55KT 3419 7947 3368 7980 

$$

JAQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
513 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain in the forecast area through
tonight bringing a possibility of severe thunderstorms. The
front will become diffuse under upper ridging early next week
and this pattern supports mainly scattered afternoon
thunderstorms and above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The main concern is a possibility of thunderstorms with damaging
wind and hail.

A mesoscale convective system in the northwest flow has tracked
through the forecast area early this morning. Severe wind
gusts have been associated with this complex. Recovery of
moisture and instability will likely occur behind this morning's
mesoscale convective system later today. There should be
continued low-level convergence into a lingering boundary. The
models depict a mid-level shortwave troughing sinking
southeastward into the area this afternoon and lingering
tonight. The NAM and GFS indicate extreme instability with
surface-based LI values -8 to -12. The greatest instability was
depicted in the south section. Forecast soundings indicate a
low- to mid-level cap breaking with heating this afternoon. The
instability indicates some of the thunderstorms will have
damaging wind and hail. The shear will be mainly uni-directional
so the threat will be mainly straight-line wind although if the
extreme instability does develop then a tornado is possible.
The high-resolution models have a high spread with the timing of
most intense convection. We leaned toward the ARW with the
timing because this model has had a somewhat better handle with
convection early this morning. Precipitable water is forecast to
peak around 2 inches. Heavy downpours may occur but with the
northwest flow and storm movement there may be a diminished
flood threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridge extending from the upper Gulf Coast into the Ohio
Valley will gradually shift east through Sunday and Sunday night.
Meanwhile at the surface, a rather diffuse front will linger over
the area. A series of upper disturbances and potentially rounds of
convection could continue to track across the area within the
northwest flow aloft along the periphery of the ridge. The greatest
potential for showers and thunderstorms will come in the mid-
afternoon through early evening time frame. Will maintain chance
PoPs across the area. With at least moderate instability in place
and dry air aloft, there is the potential for some strong if not
isolated severe thunderstorms. High temperatures have been adjusted
downward another degree or so into the upper 80s and lower 90s based
on latest model trends, which seem reasonable given the expected
cloud cover and potential for showers. Lows Sunday night will be in
the lower 70s.

The upper ridge axis shifts east over the region on Monday as the
low level flow shifts southerly in advance of an approaching cold
front. Increased subsidence over the area should limit the coverage
of any convection during the day, but still some isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible with sufficient daytime heating and
moisture. The ridge axis shifts east of the area Monday night,
allowing a cold front to shift southeast into the area. The front
could provide a focus for isolated convection Monday night, but the
potential for severe weather appears low given limited instability.
Monday still looks to be the warmest day of the week given strong
subsidence and compressional heating ahead of the front, with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Mild temperatures are expected Monday
night, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridging will become established over the western Atlantic
during the Long Term period, resulting in a more typical summertime
pattern. Generally expect isolated to scattered convection each
day, with increasing coverage possible toward the end of the
week as Atlantic moisture advects into the region. There is even
some model support for nocturnal convection so will maintain at
least some rain chances during the nighttime periods.
Temperatures appear to be near to slightly above normal through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There will be restrictions at times in thunderstorms during the
24-hour TAF period. Severe wind gusts and hail are possible.

Outside of scattered to numerous thunderstorms expect mainly VFR
conditions as indicated by the NAM MOS and GFS MOS and LAMP.
The GFS LAMP suggested general wind gusts around 18 knots this
afternoon.

A mesoscale convective system in the northwest flow has tracked
through the forecast area early this morning. Severe wind
gusts have been associated with this complex. Recovery of
moisture and instability will likely occur behind this morning's
mesoscale convective system later today. There should be
continued low-level convergence into a lingering boundary. The
models depict a mid-level shortwave troughing sinking
southeastward into the area this afternoon and lingering
tonight. The NAM and GFS indicate extreme instability with
surface-based LI values -8 to -12. The greatest instability was
depicted in the south section. Forecast soundings indicate a
low- to mid-level cap breaking with heating this afternoon. The
instability indicates some of the thunderstorms will have
damaging wind and hail. The shear will be mainly uni-
directional so the threat will be mainly straight-line wind
although if the extreme instability does develop then a tornado
is possible. The high-resolution models have a high spread with
the timing of most intense convection. There was too much
uncertainty with the timing to include thunderstorms in the
terminal forecasts later in the forecast period.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms and associated restrictions will occur during
the period. A few locations may have early morning stratus and
fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
230230-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible during the early morning and sunrise hours
mainly in the western Midlands and northern Central Savannah River
Area. Strong and gusty winds are possible however the potential for
severe thunderstorms is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is the potential for severe thunderstorms during the afternoon
and early evening on Saturday. The primary hazard will be damaging
straight-line winds, but large hail could also occur.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
436 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE SILVERSTREET      34.21N 81.70W
06/22/2019                   NEWBERRY           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED TREES DOWN SC34 AND
            SC121.

&&

RJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
442 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SAINT ANDREWS           34.04N 81.10W
06/22/2019                   RICHLAND           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED TREES DOWN NUNAMAKER
            RD AND BROAD RIVER RD.

&&

RJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
455 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW LIVINGSTON        33.57N 81.19W
06/22/2019                   ORANGEBURG         SC   PUBLIC

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED TREES DOWN NINETY
            SIX RD AND EUGENE ST.

&&

RJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
506 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ESE CAYCE             33.92N 80.96W
06/22/2019                   RICHLAND           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED TREES DOWN BLUFF RD
            AND JOHN MARK DIAL RD.

&&

RJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
507 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW GIRARD             33.02N 81.74W
06/22/2019                   BURKE              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON MILLHOUSE ROAD BETWEEN
            SARDIS AND GIRARD. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

&&

JAQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
510 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 AM     TSTM WND DMG     9 ESE VIDETTE           32.97N 82.13W
06/22/2019                   BURKE              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            POWERLINE DOWN IN THE 5500 BLOCK OF HIGHWAY
            56 SOUTH. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

JAQ