Winter Storm Watch 13, NWS Buffalo, NY

765 
WWUS41 KBUF 171428
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
928 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

NYZ019-172230-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-191217T2100Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0013.191218T0600Z-191219T1200Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
928 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow. Total snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. For the Winter Storm Watch, 
  heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 
  to 10 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. Winds 
  could gust as high as 35 mph Wednesday and Wednesday night 
  creating areas of blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Chautauqua county.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 4 PM EST this 
  afternoon. For the Winter Storm Watch, from late tonight 
  through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Roads will be snow covered and slippery with reduced
  visibility today. Travel could be very difficult at times late 
  tonight through Wednesday night with heavy snow, and areas of 
  blowing snow which could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ012>014-085-172100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-191217T2100Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, 
Orchard Park, and Springville
928 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions and
  reduced visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ020-021-172100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-191217T2100Z/
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Olean and Wellsville
928 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Cattaraugus and Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions and
  reduced visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will result in slippery
roads and limited visibilities. Slow down and use caution while
driving.

Submit snow and ice reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

057 
WWUS41 KBUF 171840
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
140 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

NYZ019-180245-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-191217T2100Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0013.191218T0600Z-191219T1200Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
140 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 6 to 10 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Chautauqua county.

* WHEN...From 1 AM EST Wednesday through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ012>014-020-021-085-171945-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-191217T2100Z/
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean, 
Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
140 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Light snow will continue to diminish this afternoon, with less
than an inch additional accumulation.

$$

Hitchcock

879 
WWUS41 KBUF 171935
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

NYZ019-180345-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0013.191218T0600Z-191219T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0001.191218T0600Z-191219T1200Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 14 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Chautauqua county. Greatest accumulations across the
  higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on
  roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could 
  impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4243 7875 4245 7895 4255 7915 4241 7958 
        4231 7963 4223 7976 4206 7976 4222 7938 4224 7890 
        4229 7869 
TIME Y19M12D18T0700Z-Y19M12D18T1200Z
COORD...4233 7838 4243 7851 4242 7893 4247 7928 
        4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7897 4201 7873 4199 7850 
        4208 7833 
TIME Y19M12D18T1200Z-Y19M12D19T0000Z
COORD...4229 7886 4245 7925 4245 7952 4236 7968 
        4227 7967 4223 7976 4199 7977 4201 7923 4200 7867 
        4212 7868 
TIME Y19M12D19T0000Z-Y19M12D19T0600Z
COORD...4217 7934 4223 7944 4229 7945 4228 7959 
        4224 7964 4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7947 4201 7947 
        4199 7929 
TIME Y19M12D19T0600Z-Y19M12D19T1200Z

$$

NYZ020-180345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0001.191218T0600Z-191219T1200Z/
Cattaraugus-
Including the city of Olean
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 14 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Cattaraugus county. Greatest accumulations over the
  higher terrain in the western portion of the county.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on
  roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could 
  impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4243 7875 4245 7895 4255 7915 4241 7958 
        4231 7963 4223 7976 4206 7976 4222 7938 4224 7890 
        4229 7869 
TIME Y19M12D18T0700Z-Y19M12D18T1200Z
COORD...4233 7838 4243 7851 4242 7893 4247 7928 
        4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7897 4201 7873 4199 7850 
        4208 7833 
TIME Y19M12D18T1200Z-Y19M12D19T0000Z
COORD...4229 7886 4245 7925 4245 7952 4236 7968 
        4227 7967 4223 7976 4199 7977 4201 7923 4200 7867 
        4212 7868 
TIME Y19M12D19T0000Z-Y19M12D19T0600Z

$$

NYZ007-008-180345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0001.191218T1000Z-191218T2100Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 14 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting
  snow. Snowfall rates may briefly reach 3 to 4 inches per hour.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest accumulations
  across the Tug Hill Plateau, with much lower accumulations
  across lower elevations.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on
  roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could 
  impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4404 7531 4417 7538 4420 7567 4420 7581 
        4412 7608 4395 7636 4379 7630 4372 7622 4370 7606 
        4384 7556 
TIME Y19M12D18T1000Z-Y19M12D18T1400Z
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7534 4406 7579 4391 7615 
        4383 7623 4348 7623 4346 7561 4353 7548 4371 7531 
        4373 7513 
TIME Y19M12D18T1400Z-Y19M12D18T2000Z

$$

NYZ006-180345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0001.191218T1400Z-191219T0000Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting
  snow. Snowfall rates may briefly reach 2 to 4 inches per hour.

* WHERE...Oswego county. Greatest accumulations across the Tug
  Hill Plateau, with much lower amounts across lower elevations.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on
  roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7534 4406 7579 4391 7615 
        4383 7623 4348 7623 4346 7561 4353 7548 4371 7531 
        4373 7513 
TIME Y19M12D18T1400Z-Y19M12D18T2000Z
COORD...4340 7586 4346 7581 4352 7644 4347 7659 
        4339 7661 4330 7645 4328 7645 4326 7622 4328 7620 
        4322 7587 
TIME Y19M12D18T2000Z-Y19M12D19T0000Z

$$

NYZ012-085-180345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.191218T0600Z-191219T0000Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4
  to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as
  high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult with snow covered roads and
  poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ021-180345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.191218T1200Z-191219T0300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3
  to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as
  high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions
  along with poor visibility at times. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002>005-180345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.191218T1600Z-191219T1200Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3
  to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as
  high as 40 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with
  poor visibility at times. The hazardous conditions could impact
  the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
401 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will impact the region through most of today as an area
of low pressure tracks from the Tennessee Valley to the Southern New
England coast through the day. A weak disturbance and associated
cold front will track across the area Wednesday morning bringing
cooler temperatures and accumulating lake effect snow through late
Thursday. The weather turns quiet for the end of the week into the
weekend with warming temperatures for holiday shoppers as a large
area of high pressure dominates the weather over the Northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The northern shield of light snow has crossed into the Western
Southern Tier early this morning, with JHW, ELZ and OLE reporting
light snow. Light snow will continue to slowly track northeast
through the morning, making it to the Buffalo and Rochester metro
areas for the morning commute. At that time, snowfall rates look to
briefly peak to around a half inch per hour for an hour or two,
causing some slowdowns for the morning drive.

An area of low pressure currently over the Tennessee Valley will
track northeast toward the southern New England coast by this
evening. This system, currently producing severe weather on its
southern flank and accumulating snow on its northern side, has
caused snow to expand across the Western Southern Tier early this
morning. Snow will continue to expand in coverage over the area as
this system tracks northeast. An inverted trough over the region is
helping to expand the accumulating snow farther north from the main
system, along with upper divergence within the right entrance region
of a potent 250H 165kt jet, and mid level frontogenesis.

The most recent model runs have maintained most consistency with just
some slight adjustments in QPF, but most areas can expect around 2-4
inches for the Niagara Frontier and counties bordering Lake Ontario.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for areas to the south, in
the Western Southern Tier, S. Erie, Wyoming, Livingston, and Ontario
counties, where 3-6 inches of snow can be expected today. For areas
south of Lake Ontario, light snow should be falling by the morning
commute, with some slightly heavier snow fall rates of around a half
inch per hour from I90 southward around the time of the morning
commute. Snow should continue through the early afternoon across far
WNY with the back edge of the steady snow tracking east and snow
becoming more showery in nature. Steady light snow should be
completely out of the area by the late afternoon. As the back edge
of the steadier snow moves east, snow showers behind this main
shield will continue for a few hours across the area.

As the system departs to the east, cooling temps aloft at 850H may
cause some lake enhancement southeast of Lake Ontario and east of
Lake Erie through the evening. Highs today will range from the upper
20s to near 30 across the higher elevations to the low 30s across
the Lake Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The widespread synoptic snow from Tuesday will be exiting the
eastern Lake Ontario region early Tuesday evening. There will be at
least some limited lake effect snow developing in the wake of this
system as temperatures aloft become marginally cold enough.

Off Lake Erie...

Expect lake enhanced upslope snow showers to continue through the
first half of the night across the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills
on northwest flow. Overnight, boundary layer flow will begin to back
to the west and southwest ahead of the next system. This will allow
the upslope snow showers to re-organize into a more shore parallel
band along the Chautauqua County shoreline after midnight. This band
will then move northward towards Buffalo by the pre-dawn hours of
Wednesday. The ever changing mode and location of the lake snow
should keep accumulations relatively light, with 2-3 inches possible
where the snow persists.

Off Lake Ontario...

Lake effect snow will organize in the evening over Wayne County in
northwest flow. Boundary layer flow will then back to westerly
overnight. This will push the lake effect snow eastward along the
south shore of the lake from Wayne to Oswego counties. The steady
movement of this band should also limit accumulations to the 2-3
inch range.

A very interesting setup then evolves for Wednesday. A very strong
and sharp mid level trough will move southeast across Ontario,
reaching New England Wednesday night. Despite the closed off 500MB
low, this system will remain very progressive. An associated cold
front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday morning. The cold
front will combine with pre-existing lake effect snow bands to
produce a brief burst of heavy lake effect snow east of the lakes,
and raise the possibility of fast moving snow squalls even inland
from the immediate lake effect areas.

Off Lake Erie...

Expect the band of lake snow to briefly make it up to about Buffalo
and Batavia. Note, this idea is north of most of the high resolution
model guidance, which often has a notable southward bias in these
situations. This will occur right during the morning commute. The
cold front will then capture the lake band and drive it rapidly
south and east through the western Southern Tier from mid morning
through midday. The rapid band movement during this time should keep
accumulations in the advisory range, even if the snow becomes heavy.
Expect accumulations of 3-5 inches on average for Wednesday where
the bands persist the longest.

Late Wednesday and Wednesday night boundary layer flow continues to
veer to the northwest. This will carry the lake effect snow into the
western Southern Tier, primarily Chautauqua and western Cattaraugus
counties. Mesoscale model guidance suggests an upstream connection
to Lake Huron will develop and enhance the snow in this area despite
the short fetch across Lake Erie. The upstream connection may
support an additional 3-5 inches in persistent bands. The lake
effect snow will begin to weaken later Wednesday night, then end
Thursday morning as high pressure builds over Lake Erie.

Off Lake Ontario...

Lake effect snow will re-organize to the northeast of the lake by
mid morning with the approach of the cold front. A combination lake
effect snow band and frontal squall will then move east across the
eastern Lake Ontario region late morning and early afternoon,
dropping a quick 2-4 inches, with 3-5 inches possible on the Tug
Hill with added orographic enhancement. By mid to late afternoon
boundary layer flow will become WNW, allowing lake effect snow to
focus southeast of the lake from Wayne to southern Oswego counties.

Wednesday night boundary layer flow will continue to veer to the
northwest. This will allow the lake effect snow band to move onshore
and back westward along the south shore, from Wayne County westward
to at least Orleans County, including the Rochester Metro area.
Mesoscale model guidance suggests an upstream connection to Georgian
Bay will develop during this time, enhancing the Lake Ontario snow.
This will bring a good chance of 3-5 inches across much of the south
shore of the lake from Orleans to Wayne counties, including the
Rochester area. There could be locally more if the band and upstream
connection stall for several hours in one location, but right now it
looks like this band will keep moving.

Northwest flow will maintain a spray of multiple bands southeast of
Lake Ontario through Thursday, but additional accumulations should
be light during this time as inversion heights lower, synoptic scale
moisture continues to decrease, and the Georgian Bay connection is
lost.

Wednesday and Wednesday night winds will become quite strong, with
gusts of 35-40 mph common on the lake plains and 30-35 mph farther
inland. This will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. It
will turn very cold Wednesday night, some of the coldest air we have
seen this early winter season. Lows will drop into the single digits
away from the immediate lakeshores, and below zero east of Lake
Ontario. Wind chills will drop below zero, and may approach wind
chill advisory criteria for a brief time late Wednesday night and
Thursday morning across the eastern Lake Ontario region and the
higher terrain of the Southern Tier.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An unusually quiet period of weather looks to set up late this week
through early next week as the pattern becomes more zonal across the
US with an expansive ridge dominating the mid section of the nation.
Our region will remain on the edge of the above normal temperatures
that will build across much of the US. The upper level pattern
leaves the door open for the potential of weak fronts moving south
out of Canada, which may prevent the well above normal temperatures
from reaching the eastern Great Lakes.

Looking at the details, any lingering light lake effect snow showers
southeast of Lake Ontario will end Thursday night. High pressure
will then dominate the eastern US Friday through the weekend. Sunday
night and Monday the Canadian GEM, and to some extent the GFS, bring
a trough through Ontario and Quebec, with a weak front possibly
moving south into our region. The ECMWF keeps this system much
farther north and west. Given the weak signal, kept the forecast dry
through Monday for now. Despite the lack of systems, the warming
temperatures aloft at this time of year will likely support a
steepening low level inversion, so we may end up with low stratus
clouds much of the time.

Temperatures aloft will warm through the period, although surface
temperatures may lag behind with the expectation of a steepening
inversion. Went with a gradual warming trend through the weekend to
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through early overnight with only JHW
seeing some MVFR cigs at times.

Weak low pressure will track south of the area and bring widespread
steady snow to New York State late tonight and Tuesday. Prevailing
cigs will start to lower to MVFR across the Southern Tier by 06z,
then areas south of the NYS Thruway will deteriorate to IFR in light
snow by 12z Tuesday. While periods of heavier snow is possible,
light snow is expected through this event for the TAF sites. IFR
vsbys are likely across western NY Tuesday. Steady snow doesn't
reach KART until Tuesday morning. Expect improvements from west to
east late Tuesday afternoon. A brief period of VFR conditions will
then occur on Tuesday evening before localized IFR develops late
Tuesday night east of the lakes as lake effect snow develops.

Outlook...

Wednesday...IFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes, with VFR
elsewhere.
Thursday...IFR in lake effect snow showers southeast of the
lakes, VFR elsewhere.
Friday and Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds expected today. Winds pickup to small crafts tonight
ahead of and as cold front crosses the region. Winds will start out
of the northeast today and shift to the northwest through the day.
Winds will continue to shift to the west-southwest ahead of the
approaching cold front, before shifting back to the northwest behind
passing front Wednesday morning. Small Craft Advisory in effect
starting late this evening over Lake Erie and expanding eastward
through the night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning
     for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday
         for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
         Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
         Thursday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST
         Thursday for LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...HSK/JLA
MARINE...SW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
515 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

NYZ013-014-021-171015-
Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
515 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Wind chill values will likely fall below zero Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-171015-
Niagara-Orleans-
515 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Wind chill values will likely fall below zero Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-011-171015-
Northern Erie-Genesee-
515 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Lake effect snow may develop late Tuesday night through Wednesday
east of Lake Erie. The snow may briefly impact the area from Buffalo
to Batavia before moving south into the Southern Tier. Moderate
accumulations are possible if the band remains across the area long
enough.

Wind chill values will likely fall below zero Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-019-020-085-171015-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
515 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Lake effect snow will develop late Tuesday night through Wednesday
night to the east of Lake Erie. Moderate accumulations are possible.

Wind chill values will likely fall below zero Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-171015-
Jefferson-Lewis-
515 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Lake effect snow may develop east of Lake Ontario Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Moderate accumulations are possible.

Wind chill values will likely fall well below zero Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>005-171015-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
515 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Northwest winds will pickup late Wednesday into Wednesday night
producing an increase in wave heights. Due to the high Lake Ontario
water levels lakeshore flooding is possible during this time.

Wind chill values will likely fall below zero Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-171015-
Oswego-
515 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Lake effect snow may develop east of Lake Ontario Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Moderate accumulations are possible.

Wind chill values will likely fall below zero Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning.

Northwest winds will pickup late Wednesday into Wednesday night
producing an increase in wave heights. Due to the high Lake Ontario
water levels lakeshore flooding is possible during this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-171015-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
515 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Gale force winds are possible late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-171015-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
515 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf