Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2019

Lake Effect Snow Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 17, 20195 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Dec 17, 2019, 2:35 PM EST for 5 counties in New York. It took effect at Dec 18, 2019, 1:00 AM EST. It was in force for 27 hr. 50 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Dec 17, 2019, 2:35 PM EST (19:35 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 18, 2019, 1:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 19, 2019, 3:41 AM EST
In force
27 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Dec 18, 5:00 AM ESTSNOW 51 Wnw Fredonia, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 5:00 AM ESTSNOW 6Watertown, NY
Dec 18, 5:15 AM ESTSNOW 5.2Highmarket, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 6:00 AM ESTSNOW 3.84 Sse Lacona, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 6:00 AM ESTSNOW 4Lowville, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 6:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.55 Nnw Jamestown, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 6:30 AM ESTSNOW 4.2Perrysburg, NY
Dec 18, 6:30 AM ESTSNOW 7.2Perrysburg, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 3.5Wsw Falconer, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.1Fulton, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.51 Sse Silver Creek, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.5Mexico 2sw, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 5Little Valley, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 5Osceola 1e, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.1Redfield 8n, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 81 Ese Watertown, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 7:30 AM ESTSNOW 3.51 Ene Randolph, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 7:50 AM ESTSNOW 6.7Se Minetto, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 7:54 AM ESTSNOW 6.21 Nne Franklinville, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 7:55 AM ESTSNOW 3.71 N Gerry, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 43 Se Kennedy, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 5Cattaraugus, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 8:00 AM ESTSNOW 5.2W Fulton, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 8:35 AM ESTSNOW 8.5Watertown, NY
Dec 18, 9:00 AM ESTSNOW 4.53 Ssw Redfield, NY
Dec 18, 9:00 AM ESTSNOW 9.7S Watertown, NY
Dec 18, 10:04 AM ESTSNOW 6.5Redfield, NY
Dec 18, 10:22 AM ESTSNOW 58 N Redfield, NYSINCE 7AM
Dec 18, 11:00 AM ESTSNOW 9.53 Ssw Redfield, NY
Dec 18, 11:00 AM ESTSNOW 108 N Redfield, NY
Dec 18, 11:30 AM ESTSNOW 10.34 Nw Altmar, NY
Dec 18, 12:00 PM ESTSNOW 91 Ne Pulaski, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 12:00 PM ESTSNOW 113 Ssw Redfield, NY
Dec 18, 12:57 PM ESTSNOW 82 N Richland, NY
Dec 18, 1:00 PM ESTSNOW 4.4Oswego East, NYSINCE 730AM
Dec 18, 1:25 PM ESTSNOW 11.3S Watertown, NY
Dec 18, 1:50 PM ESTSNOW 11.5Redfield, NY
Dec 18, 2:30 PM ESTSNOW 12.4S Watertown, NY
Dec 18, 3:00 PM ESTSNOW 6.52 Sw Forestville, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 3:00 PM ESTSNOW 122 Wsw Parkers, NY
Dec 18, 5:00 PM ESTSNOW 4.4Oswego, NY24-HOUR SNOWFALL.
Dec 18, 5:00 PM ESTSNOW 5Se Mannsville, NY
Dec 18, 5:09 PM ESTSNOW 15Eddyville, NY
Dec 18, 6:24 PM ESTSNOW 11Ellicottville, NY
Dec 18, 6:30 PM ESTSNOW 9Jamestown, NY
Dec 18, 7:26 PM ESTSNOW 9.5Richland, NY
Dec 18, 7:45 PM ESTSNOW 6Palermo, NY
Dec 18, 8:15 PM ESTSNOW 11.5Franklinville, NY
Dec 18, 9:39 PM ESTSNOW 11.8Perrysburg, NY
Dec 18, 10:00 PM ESTSNOW 122 Ssw Redfield, NY

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2019-12-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2019-12-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 33 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
680 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
83 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
256 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

879 
WWUS41 KBUF 171935
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

NYZ019-180345-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0013.191218T0600Z-191219T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0001.191218T0600Z-191219T1200Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 14 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Chautauqua county. Greatest accumulations across the
  higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on
  roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could 
  impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4243 7875 4245 7895 4255 7915 4241 7958 
        4231 7963 4223 7976 4206 7976 4222 7938 4224 7890 
        4229 7869 
TIME Y19M12D18T0700Z-Y19M12D18T1200Z
COORD...4233 7838 4243 7851 4242 7893 4247 7928 
        4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7897 4201 7873 4199 7850 
        4208 7833 
TIME Y19M12D18T1200Z-Y19M12D19T0000Z
COORD...4229 7886 4245 7925 4245 7952 4236 7968 
        4227 7967 4223 7976 4199 7977 4201 7923 4200 7867 
        4212 7868 
TIME Y19M12D19T0000Z-Y19M12D19T0600Z
COORD...4217 7934 4223 7944 4229 7945 4228 7959 
        4224 7964 4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7947 4201 7947 
        4199 7929 
TIME Y19M12D19T0600Z-Y19M12D19T1200Z

$$

NYZ020-180345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0001.191218T0600Z-191219T1200Z/
Cattaraugus-
Including the city of Olean
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 14 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Cattaraugus county. Greatest accumulations over the
  higher terrain in the western portion of the county.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on
  roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could 
  impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4243 7875 4245 7895 4255 7915 4241 7958 
        4231 7963 4223 7976 4206 7976 4222 7938 4224 7890 
        4229 7869 
TIME Y19M12D18T0700Z-Y19M12D18T1200Z
COORD...4233 7838 4243 7851 4242 7893 4247 7928 
        4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7897 4201 7873 4199 7850 
        4208 7833 
TIME Y19M12D18T1200Z-Y19M12D19T0000Z
COORD...4229 7886 4245 7925 4245 7952 4236 7968 
        4227 7967 4223 7976 4199 7977 4201 7923 4200 7867 
        4212 7868 
TIME Y19M12D19T0000Z-Y19M12D19T0600Z

$$

NYZ007-008-180345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0001.191218T1000Z-191218T2100Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 8 to 14 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting
  snow. Snowfall rates may briefly reach 3 to 4 inches per hour.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest accumulations
  across the Tug Hill Plateau, with much lower accumulations
  across lower elevations.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on
  roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could 
  impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4404 7531 4417 7538 4420 7567 4420 7581 
        4412 7608 4395 7636 4379 7630 4372 7622 4370 7606 
        4384 7556 
TIME Y19M12D18T1000Z-Y19M12D18T1400Z
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7534 4406 7579 4391 7615 
        4383 7623 4348 7623 4346 7561 4353 7548 4371 7531 
        4373 7513 
TIME Y19M12D18T1400Z-Y19M12D18T2000Z

$$

NYZ006-180345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0001.191218T1400Z-191219T0000Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds
  gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting
  snow. Snowfall rates may briefly reach 2 to 4 inches per hour.

* WHERE...Oswego county. Greatest accumulations across the Tug
  Hill Plateau, with much lower amounts across lower elevations.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on
  roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7534 4406 7579 4391 7615 
        4383 7623 4348 7623 4346 7561 4353 7548 4371 7531 
        4373 7513 
TIME Y19M12D18T1400Z-Y19M12D18T2000Z
COORD...4340 7586 4346 7581 4352 7644 4347 7659 
        4339 7661 4330 7645 4328 7645 4326 7622 4328 7620 
        4322 7587 
TIME Y19M12D18T2000Z-Y19M12D19T0000Z

$$

NYZ012-085-180345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.191218T0600Z-191219T0000Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4
  to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as
  high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult with snow covered roads and
  poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ021-180345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.191218T1200Z-191219T0300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3
  to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as
  high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions
  along with poor visibility at times. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002>005-180345-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.191218T1600Z-191219T1200Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
235 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3
  to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as
  high as 40 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions with
  poor visibility at times. The hazardous conditions could impact
  the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
7 follow-up statements
115 
WWUS41 KBUF 180306
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1006 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

NYZ019-020-181115-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.191218T0600Z-191219T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
1006 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 14 inches in the most persistent lake 
  snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing 
  and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover 
  on roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4243 7875 4245 7895 4255 7915 4241 7958 
        4231 7963 4223 7976 4206 7976 4222 7938 4224 7890 
        4229 7869 
TIME Y19M12D18T0700Z-Y19M12D18T1200Z
COORD...4233 7838 4243 7851 4242 7893 4247 7928 
        4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7897 4201 7873 4199 7850 
        4208 7833 
TIME Y19M12D18T1200Z-Y19M12D19T0000Z
COORD...4229 7886 4245 7925 4245 7952 4236 7968 
        4227 7967 4223 7976 4199 7977 4201 7923 4200 7867 
        4212 7868 
TIME Y19M12D19T0000Z-Y19M12D19T0600Z
COORD...4217 7934 4223 7944 4229 7945 4228 7959 
        4224 7964 4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7947 4201 7947 
        4199 7929 
TIME Y19M12D19T0600Z-Y19M12D19T1200Z

$$

NYZ007-008-181115-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.191218T1000Z-191218T2100Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1006 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 14 inches in the most persistent lake 
  snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing 
  and drifting snow. Snowfall rates may briefly reach 3 to 4 
  inches per hour.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest accumulations 
  across the Tug Hill Plateau, with much lower accumulations 
  across lower elevations.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover 
  on roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4404 7531 4417 7538 4420 7567 4420 7581 
        4412 7608 4395 7636 4379 7630 4372 7622 4370 7606 
        4384 7556 
TIME Y19M12D18T1000Z-Y19M12D18T1400Z
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7534 4406 7579 4391 7615 
        4383 7623 4348 7623 4346 7561 4353 7548 4371 7531 
        4373 7513 
TIME Y19M12D18T1400Z-Y19M12D18T2000Z

$$

NYZ006-181115-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.191218T1400Z-191219T0000Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
1006 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake 
  snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing 
  and drifting snow. Snowfall rates may briefly reach 2 to 4 
  inches per hour.

* WHERE...Oswego county. Greatest accumulations across the Tug 
  Hill Plateau, with much lower amounts across lower elevations.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover 
  on roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7534 4406 7579 4391 7615 
        4383 7623 4348 7623 4346 7561 4353 7548 4371 7531 
        4373 7513 
TIME Y19M12D18T1400Z-Y19M12D18T2000Z
COORD...4340 7586 4346 7581 4352 7644 4347 7659 
        4339 7661 4330 7645 4328 7645 4326 7622 4328 7620 
        4322 7587 
TIME Y19M12D18T2000Z-Y19M12D19T0000Z

$$

NYZ012-085-181115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.191218T0600Z-191219T0000Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
1006 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  4 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting 
  as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the 
  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ021-181115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.191218T1200Z-191219T0300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
1006 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting 
  as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions 
  along with poor visibility at times. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002>005-181115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.191218T1600Z-191219T1200Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
1006 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting 
  as high as 40 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions 
  with poor visibility at times. The hazardous conditions could 
  impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
Reynolds
485 
WWUS41 KBUF 181109
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
609 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

NYZ019-020-181915-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191219T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
609 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 14 inches in the most persistent lake 
  snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing 
  and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover 
  on roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4226 7831 4244 7842 4247 7928 4228 7959 
        4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7897 4201 7873 4199 7850 
        4208 7833 
TIME Y19M12D18T1100Z-Y19M12D19T0000Z
COORD...4229 7886 4245 7925 4245 7952 4236 7968 
        4227 7967 4223 7976 4199 7977 4201 7923 4200 7867 
        4212 7868 
TIME Y19M12D19T0000Z-Y19M12D19T0600Z
COORD...4217 7934 4223 7944 4229 7945 4228 7959 
        4224 7964 4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7947 4201 7947 
        4199 7929 
TIME Y19M12D19T0600Z-Y19M12D19T1200Z

$$

NYZ007-008-181915-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191218T2100Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
609 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 14 inches in the most persistent lake 
  snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing 
  and drifting snow. Snowfall rates may briefly reach 3 to 4 
  inches per hour this morning.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest accumulations 
  across the Tug Hill Plateau, with much lower accumulations 
  across lower elevations.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover 
  on roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4384 7547 4389 7513 4408 7515 4412 7527 
        4407 7584 4393 7620 4370 7625 4350 7620 4347 7570 
        4353 7550 
TIME Y19M12D18T1300Z-Y19M12D18T1800Z
COORD...4340 7586 4342 7550 4352 7542 4356 7598 
        4349 7634 4339 7661 4325 7661 4322 7647 4328 7620 
        4316 7588 
TIME Y19M12D18T1800Z-Y19M12D19T0000Z

$$

NYZ006-181915-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.191218T1400Z-191219T0000Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
609 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake 
  snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce blowing 
  and drifting snow. Snowfall rates may briefly reach 2 to 4 
  inches per hour.

* WHERE...Oswego county. Greatest accumulations across the Tug 
  Hill Plateau, with much lower amounts across lower elevations.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover 
  on roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4384 7547 4389 7513 4408 7515 4412 7527 
        4407 7584 4393 7620 4370 7625 4350 7620 4347 7570 
        4353 7550 
TIME Y19M12D18T1300Z-Y19M12D18T1800Z
COORD...4340 7586 4342 7550 4352 7542 4356 7598 
        4349 7634 4339 7661 4325 7661 4322 7647 4328 7620 
        4316 7588 
TIME Y19M12D18T1800Z-Y19M12D19T0000Z

$$

NYZ012-085-181915-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T0000Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
609 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  4 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting 
  as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the 
  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ021-181915-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.191218T1200Z-191219T0300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
609 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting 
  as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions 
  along with poor visibility at times. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002>005-181915-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.191218T1600Z-191219T1200Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
609 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS
MORNING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 
  3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting 
  as high as 40 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions 
  with poor visibility at times. The hazardous conditions could 
  impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

TMA
758 
WWUS41 KBUF 181447
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
947 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

NYZ019-020-182300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191219T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
947 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting
  as high as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. Greatest
  accumulations will be across the higher terrain of the
  Chautauqua Ridge.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult at times with deep snow
  cover on roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4226 7831 4244 7842 4247 7928 4228 7959 
        4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7897 4201 7873 4199 7850 
        4208 7833 
TIME Y19M12D18T1400Z-Y19M12D19T0000Z
COORD...4229 7886 4245 7925 4245 7952 4236 7968 
        4227 7967 4223 7976 4199 7977 4201 7923 4200 7867 
        4212 7868 
TIME Y19M12D19T0000Z-Y19M12D19T0600Z
COORD...4217 7934 4223 7944 4229 7945 4228 7959 
        4224 7964 4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7947 4201 7947 
        4199 7929 
TIME Y19M12D19T0600Z-Y19M12D19T1200Z

$$

NYZ007-008-182100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191218T2100Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
947 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. West winds 
  will gust to 35 mph producing blowing and drifting snow. 
  Snowfall rates may briefly reach 3 to 4 inches per hour through 
  midday.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis counties. Greatest accumulations
  will be across the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be extremely difficult or nearly
  impossible at times with deep snow cover on roads and near zero
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4411 7518 4412 7545 4383 7629 4361 7623 
        4343 7664 4332 7636 4333 7587 4341 7583 4352 7539 
        4367 7512 
TIME Y19M12D18T1400Z-Y19M12D18T2000Z

$$

NYZ006-182300-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191219T0000Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
947 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  6 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting
  as high as 40 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.
  Snowfall rates may briefly reach 3 to 4 inches per hour through
  early afternoon.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be extremely difficult or nearly
  impossible at times with deep snow cover on roads and near zero
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4411 7518 4412 7545 4383 7629 4361 7623 
        4343 7664 4332 7636 4333 7587 4341 7583 4352 7539 
        4367 7512 
TIME Y19M12D18T1400Z-Y19M12D18T2000Z
COORD...4346 7584 4353 7634 4351 7650 4343 7661 
        4334 7662 4324 7648 4322 7626 4328 7620 4320 7608 
        4316 7588 
TIME Y19M12D18T2000Z-Y19M12D19T0000Z

$$

NYZ012-085-182300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T0000Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
947 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 
  3 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as 
  high as 40 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Southern Erie counties. Greatest
  accumulations across the Boston Hills and higher elevations of
  Wyoming County.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.
  Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ021-182300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T0300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
947 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high
  as 35 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Allegany county. Greatest accumulations across the
  higher terrain in the northern and western portion of the
  county.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.
  Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002>005-182300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.191218T1600Z-191219T1200Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
947 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4
  to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as
  high as 40 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.
  Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
444 
WWUS41 KBUF 182042
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
342 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

NYZ006-190500-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191219T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
342 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS REPLACED BY A WINTER WEATHER 
ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  5 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as 
  high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold
  wind chills as low as 10 below zero could result in hypothermia
  if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ008-190500-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191218T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.191219T0200Z-191219T1500Z/
Lewis-
Including the city of Lowville
342 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 
  25 below zero.

* WHERE...Lewis county.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

&&

$$

NYZ007-182145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191218T2100Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
342 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Lake effect snow will continue to taper off through this evening.

$$

NYZ019-020-190500-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191219T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
342 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 
  of 5 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds 
  gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4226 7831 4244 7842 4247 7928 4228 7959 
        4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7897 4201 7873 4199 7850 
        4208 7833 
TIME Y19M12D18T1900Z-Y19M12D19T0300Z
COORD...4229 7886 4245 7925 4245 7952 4236 7968 
        4227 7967 4223 7976 4199 7977 4201 7923 4200 7867 
        4212 7868 
TIME Y19M12D19T0300Z-Y19M12D19T0600Z
COORD...4217 7934 4223 7944 4229 7945 4228 7959 
        4224 7964 4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7947 4201 7947 
        4199 7929 
TIME Y19M12D19T0600Z-Y19M12D19T1200Z

$$

NYZ012-085-190000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T0000Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
342 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 
  3 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as 
  high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Wyoming and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ021-190300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T0300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
342 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 
  4 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as 
  high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002>005-190500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T1200Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
342 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as 
  high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
799 
WWUS41 KBUF 182319
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
619 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

NYZ012-085-190030-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T0000Z/
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
619 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Steadier bands of lake effect snow have moved out of the area.

$$

NYZ019-020-190730-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191219T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
619 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 
  of 3 to 6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4226 7831 4244 7842 4247 7928 4228 7959 
        4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7897 4201 7873 4199 7850 
        4208 7833 
TIME Y19M12D18T1900Z-Y19M12D19T0300Z
COORD...4229 7886 4245 7925 4245 7952 4236 7968 
        4227 7967 4223 7976 4199 7977 4201 7923 4200 7867 
        4212 7868 
TIME Y19M12D19T0300Z-Y19M12D19T0600Z
COORD...4217 7934 4223 7944 4229 7945 4228 7959 
        4224 7964 4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7947 4201 7947 
        4199 7929 
TIME Y19M12D19T0600Z-Y19M12D19T1200Z

$$

NYZ021-190300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T0300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
619 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up 
  to 2 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Allegany county.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002>005-190730-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T1200Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
619 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  6 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as 
  high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006-190730-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
619 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 
  4 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as 
  high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The 
  cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero could result in 
  hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ008-190730-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.191219T0200Z-191219T1500Z/
Lewis-
Including the city of Lowville
619 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 
  25 below zero.

* WHERE...Lewis county.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

&&

$$
942 
WWUS41 KBUF 190151
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
851 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

NYZ021-190300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T0300Z/
Allegany-
Including the city of Wellsville
851 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The steadiest snows have moved out of the area.

$$

NYZ019-020-191000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191219T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
851 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations 
  of 3 to 5 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. Mainly across
  southern portions of the counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4226 7831 4244 7842 4247 7928 4228 7959 
        4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7897 4201 7873 4199 7850 
        4208 7833 
TIME Y19M12D18T1900Z-Y19M12D19T0300Z
COORD...4229 7886 4245 7925 4245 7952 4236 7968 
        4227 7967 4223 7976 4199 7977 4201 7923 4200 7867 
        4212 7868 
TIME Y19M12D19T0300Z-Y19M12D19T0600Z
COORD...4217 7934 4223 7944 4229 7945 4228 7959 
        4224 7964 4223 7976 4199 7977 4199 7947 4201 7947 
        4199 7929 
TIME Y19M12D19T0600Z-Y19M12D19T1200Z

$$

NYZ002>005-191000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T1200Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
851 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 
  5 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as 
  high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006-191000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
851 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high 
  as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute. The cold wind 
  chills as low as 10 below zero could result in hypothermia if 
  precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ008-191000-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.191219T0200Z-191219T1500Z/
Lewis-
Including the city of Lowville
851 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 
  25 below zero.

* WHERE...Lewis county.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

&&

$$
279 
WWUS41 KBUF 190841
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
341 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019

NYZ019-020-190945-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-191219T1200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
341 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The steadiest snows have weakened over the area with only brief 
periods of light snow expected.

$$

NYZ002>005-191200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T1200Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, and Fair Haven
341 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2
  inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds may gust to 30
  MPH near the lakeshore. 

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Wayne, and Northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could reduce visibility. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for changing road conditions and 
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006-191200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0047.000000T0000Z-191219T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the city of Oswego
341 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds may gust to 30
  MPH near the lakeshore. 

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could reduce visibility. The cold wind chills as low as 10
  below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not 
  taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for changing road conditions and 
visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ008-191500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-191219T1500Z/
Lewis-
Including the city of Lowville
341 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 
  25 below zero.

* WHERE...Lewis county.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a potentially dangerous situation to be outdoors. If you
must be outside, be sure to cover all exposed skin. Frostbite can
occur in 30 minutes or less with apparent temperatures of
15 below zero or colder.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Dec 17, 2:33 PM EST, 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 17, 2:33 PM EST, 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
233 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow will taper off from west to east through early this
evening. Lake effect snow will develop overnight southeast of Lakes
Erie and Ontario. The lake effect snow will become heavy Wednesday
east of the lakes as a strong cold front crosses the area. Outside
of lake effect areas, the cold front will produce snow showers and a
few brief heavy snow squalls. Lake effect snow will continue
Thursday night southeast of the lakes before tapering off Thursday.
Very cold air will arrive Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with
wind chills below zero at times.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The synoptic snow from earlier is quickly fading away. Additional
accumulations will be less than an inch in most areas, and 1-2
inches east of Lake Ontario. With this in mind, the Winter Weather
Advisory has been cancelled.

Our attention then turns to lake effect snow. Conditions will become
marginally supportive tonight, then much more favorable on Wednesday
as a strong cold front crosses the area. Lake induced equilibrium
levels will rise steadily Wednesday morning as cold air pours into
the region, peaking at around 15K feet on both lakes. The most
favorable setup will be for just a few hours right around the time
of the cold frontal passage. During this time, deep synoptic scale
moisture will be available through a deep mixed phase layer,
supporting large dendrites. Furthermore, strong convergence along
the advancing cold front will combine with developing lake generated
bands of convergence to create a brief period of strong convergence
along the long axis of both lakes. Later Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night boundary layer flow quickly veers to northwest, with
heavier lake snow closely tied to upstream connections. CIPS analogs
are keying in on relatively high chances of warning criteria snow
east of both lakes Erie and Ontario.

Off Lake Erie...

Expect light, upslope snow showers through the first half of tonight
with minor accumulations along the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston
Hills. By around midnight, boundary layer flow will back to the WSW,
which should allow a band to consolidate along the shoreline from
Chautauqua to southern Erie counties. This band may briefly make it
as far north as the Buffalo southtowns and far southern Genesee
County very briefly late tonight, before quickly moving back south
again by 7AM Wednesday.

A fairly strong band should briefly move southeast from southern
Erie and Wyoming counties into the western Southern Tier as the lake
band merges with the advancing cold front. This may drop some brief,
heavy snowfall rates across the western Southern Tier Wednesday
morning.

The lake effect snow will then likely break up for a time from late
morning through early afternoon following the passage of the cold
front as boundary layer flow quickly veers more northwesterly.
Following this brief lull, lake effect snow will re-organize as the
upstream connection begins to develop to Lake Huron by late
afternoon. This Lake Huron connection will initially set up from
central and northern Chautauqua to western Cattaraugus late
Wednesday afternoon. The band of heaviest snow should then move
slowly southwestward as boundary layer flow continues to veer.

This is a very complex scenario given all the band movement and the
upstream connections. Warning criteria amounts will likely be
closely tied to the upstream Lake Huron connection, making placement
particularly difficult. Even so, the setup appears favorable for
warning criteria amounts when the entire event is taken as a whole.
Storm totals of 8-12 inches are expected, with a few locations
possibly exceeding 12 inches if the Lake Huron connection stays in
one spot long enough.

With this in mind, we will go with a lake effect snow warning for
Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, with an advisory for southern
Erie, Wyoming, and Allegany counties.

Off Lake Ontario...

Lake effect snow will develop southeast of Lake Ontario this evening
across Wayne County. This area of snow will be relatively light
given the marginal setup. The lake snow will then move quickly east
into Oswego County late tonight, before weakening further at the
east end of the lake by daybreak. Accumulations of 2-3 inches are
possible tonight as this band moves east from Wayne to Oswego
counties.

Following a very brief lull around 10-12Z Wednesday, a band of snow
will rapidly intensify over Lake Ontario as conditions improve with
the approach of the cold front. Expect a band to rapidly intensify
early to mid morning across central Jefferson County, then settle to
the northern Tug Hill by late morning. The band may linger in this
area for just a few hours, then progress quickly south across the
rest of the Tug Hill region into Oswego County during the early
afternoon. Latest high-resolution guidance such as the WRFNMM,
WRFARW, and high-res window of the Canadian RGEM suggest the band
may max out in intensity briefly across the northern half of the Tug
Hill mid to late morning, with snowfall rates possibly reaching 3-4
inches per hour briefly. This will be a short lived event, with the
band moving rapidly south and weakening during the afternoon.

Following this brief intense phase of lake effect snow, a band will
move or re-develop at the southeast corner of the lake by mid
afternoon across Wayne/N.Cayuga/S.Oswego counties. An upstream
connection to Georgian Bay is expected to develop during this time
frame. The combo Georgian Bay/Lake Ontario band will then move
westward along the south shore of Lake Ontario later Wednesday
afternoon and night as boundary layer flow veers more northwesterly
with time. The Georgian Bay connection should break down later
Wednesday night, with snow becoming light but still fairly
widespread southeast of Lake Ontario.

Given the above expectations, accumulations may reach 8-12 inches
across the Tug Hill region Wednesday, with a few spots over a foot
if the band maxes out and stalls for a few hours. Fluff factor
should be ideal given the thermal profiles. After that, northwest
flow will spread 4-6 inches along the south shore from Orleans to
southern Oswego counties Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night,
including the Rochester area. Local warning amounts are not out of
the question in this area if the Georgian Bay connection stalls for
several hours.

We will go with Lake Effect Snow Warnings for Jefferson, Lewis, and
Oswego counties, primarily for the Tug Hill region Wednesday. This
will be followed by advisories along the south shore from Orleans to
Northern Cayuga counties including Rochester.

Finally, between the main areas of lake effect snow the cold front
will produce a few snow showers and snow squalls Wednesday morning
across much of the region. A spray of Lake Huron snow showers is
also likely across much of the region Wednesday afternoon and
evening, with relatively light accumulations away from the main lake
effect areas. Blowing snow will be common Wednesday and Wednesday
night with wind gusts up to 40 mph on the lake plains, and 30 mph
farther inland.

Temperatures will drop into the teens Wednesday afternoon, on the
way to single digits Wednesday night, and below zero east of Lake
Ontario. Wind chills will be below zero. Wind chill values may
briefly drop to near advisory criteria across the higher terrain of
the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Northwest flow continues Thursday as the core of the cold air and
upper level trough move further east. Lake effect snow showers will
be ongoing mainly impacting areas southeast of the Lakes. While high
pressure and subsidence move into the region through the afternoon,
an upstream weak shortwave trough may drive some moisture into the
region by afternoon. This may help lake effect snow showers
especially southeast of Lake Ontario linger through the afternoon.
Additional accumulations of a inch are possible in the most
persistent lake bands and showers Thursday.

Surface high pressure will linger over the region Thursday night
into Friday while a upper level ridge persists over southeast U.S.
Cold temperatures expected Thursday night with lows in the single
digits to teens across western NY to the minus single digits east of
Lake Ontario. Temperatures will rebound to the upper 20s to low 30s
across western NY to the teens east of Lake Ontario Friday.

Surface high pressure will track into New England and winds will
become light and southerly Friday night. Another chilly night
expected with lows in the teens across western NY to the minus
single digits east of Lake Ontario. A fast moving shortwave trough
may track across the Great Lakes Saturday while a cold front moves
across the region. Very little moisture is associated with this
feature and may only produce some passing clouds. Temperatures look
to break freezing across western NY Saturday with highs in the mid
to upper 30s and the upper 20s to low 30s east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fairly quiet weather continues through the Christmas holiday across
the eastern Great Lakes. Another fast moving shortwave trough will
likely track across Canada Saturday night into Sunday with moisture
staying north of the border and  marginal temperatures. Greatest
chance of rain or snow showers will be east of Lake Ontario, closer
to the surface low. High pressure will move back into the region
Monday and Monday night before the next shortwave trough tracks to
the north.

Temperatures will climb above normal Sunday into early next week
with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and overnight lows in the
upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through the afternoon and early evening hours...elongated low
pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states will push eastward and off the
east coast...with its associated swath of light snow consequently
diminishing from west to east. This will allow visibilities to
generally improve back to VFR...though lingering low level moisture
and upsloping will help keep ceilings confined to the IFR and MVFR
ranges.

This evening a short period of ridging and drier air will allow
conditions to briefly improve to VFR across the Niagara Frontier
and the western Finger Lakes...while continued upsloping and some
lake effect snow showers will keep a mix of IFR to MVFR conditions
intact across the remainder of the region.

Overnight and Wednesday morning...a clipper system will pass by to
the north of our region. This feature will bring a brief period of
scattered to numerous snow showers and associated IFR/MVFR
restrictions...with areas of lake effect snow and attendant IFR east
of the lakes briefly moving northward late tonight and early
Wednesday...before drifting back south again during Wednesday
following the passage of the system's trailing cold front. Off Lake
Erie the lake snows will primarily affect areas from a little south
of KBUF to KJHW...while the Lake Ontario lake snows appear likely to
reach as far north as KART late tonight and Wednesday morning.

Following the passage of the cold front...areas southeast of the
lakes will see lake effect snow showers and a mix of IFR/MVFR
conditions prevailing through the rest of Wednesday...with a mix
of MVFR/VFR and generally more scattered activity prevailing
elsewhere.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...IFR/MVFR in lake effect snow showers southeast
of the lakes...with MVFR/VFR and more scattered snow showers
elsewhere.
Thursday...IFR/MVFR with lake effect snow showers likely southeast
of the lakes...with mainly VFR elsewhere.
Friday through Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front will cross the area late tonight and early
Wednesday morning. Moderate to strong WSW winds late tonight will
quickly veer to the northwest Wednesday and Wednesday night. Winds
look to peak at 30 knots on both Lakes Erie and Ontario, producing
high end Small Craft Advisories on both lakes. Winds will gradually
diminish later Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds
into the Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for
     NYZ007-008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
     NYZ006.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ002>005.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
     NYZ012-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for
     NYZ021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday
         for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
         Thursday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST
         Thursday for LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...Hitchcock
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 17, 1:44 PM EST, 51 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
144 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

NYZ001-002-013-014-021-181845-
Niagara-Orleans-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
144 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-011-181845-
Northern Erie-Genesee-
144 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Lake effect snow may be ongoing Wednesday morning east of Lake Erie.
The snow may briefly impact the area from Buffalo to Batavia before
moving south into the Southern Tier. Moderate accumulations are
possible if the band remains across the area long enough.

Wind chill values will likely fall below zero Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-181845-
Chautauqua-
144 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

Wind chill values will likely fall below zero Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-020-085-181845-
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
144 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Accumulating lake effect snow will continue Wednesday into
Wednesday night east of Lake Erie. Moderate accumulations are
possible. Gusty winds will create areas of blowing and drifting
snow.

Wind chill values will likely fall below zero Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-181845-
Jefferson-Lewis-
144 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Lake effect snow may develop east of Lake Ontario Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Moderate accumulations are possible. Gusty winds
could bring areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Wind chill values will likely fall well below zero Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>005-181845-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
144 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Lake effect snow will develop Wednesday and Wednesday night. The
lake snows are expected to move around, but if the snows remain
across an area long enough moderate accumulations are possible.
Gusty winds could bring areas of blowing and drifting snow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-181845-
Oswego-
144 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Lake effect snow may develop east of Lake Ontario Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Moderate accumulations are possible. Gusty winds
could bring areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Wind chill values will likely fall below zero Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-181845-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
144 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gale force wind gusts are possible Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-181845-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
144 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 16, 7:50 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF64 hr
Dec 17, 4:05 AM ESTWinter Storm WatchBUFChautauqua11 hr
Dec 17, 2:35 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryBUFAllegany, Cayuga, Erie, Monroe, Orleans, Oswego and 2 more40 hr
Dec 17, 2:54 PM ESTLakeshore Flood WatchBUFCayuga, Oswego, Wayne13 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2019Every lake effect snow warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.