Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2019

Small Craft Advisory 44, NWS Buffalo, NY

April 14, 2019

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at Apr 14, 2019, 1:36 PM EDT. It took effect at Apr 15, 2019, 4:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 28 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 14, 2019, 1:36 PM EDT (17:36 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 15, 2019, 4:00 AM EDT
Expired
Apr 16, 2019, 7:39 AM EDT
In force
28 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

The text

As transmitted.

859 
WHUS71 KBUF 141736
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

LEZ041-150145-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T0800Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday.

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-150145-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T0900Z-190416T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday.

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-150145-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T1500Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM EDT
Tuesday.

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-150145-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...Northeast 15 to 25 knots through this evening. West 20 
  to 25 knots Monday.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-150145-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...Northeast 15 to 25 knots through this evening. West 15
  to 25 knots Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-150145-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...Northeast to 30 knots through this evening. Northwest 
  20 to 25 knots Monday and Monday evening.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-150145-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northeast 15 to 25 knots through this evening. 
  Northwest 20 to 25 knots Monday and Monday night.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
9 follow-up statements
621 
WHUS71 KBUF 142346
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

LEZ040-150800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ041-150800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T0800Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-150800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-150800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T0900Z-190416T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-150800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-150800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-150800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T1500Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO
5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Reynolds
952 
WHUS71 KBUF 150537
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

LEZ040-151345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ041-151345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T0800Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-151345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T0900Z-190416T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-151345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-151345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-151345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-151345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T1500Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
339 
WHUS71 KBUF 150940
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

LEZ040-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ041-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T1500Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
477 
WHUS71 KBUF 151716
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

LEZ040-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ041-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-160130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-160130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-160130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
086 
WHUS71 KBUF 152345
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

LEZ040-160300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ041-160300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-160300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-160300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lower Niagara River-
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-160300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-160745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-160745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
Reynolds
253 
WHUS71 KBUF 160244
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1044 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

LEZ040-LOZ030-160345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lower Niagara River-
1044 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds and waves have subsided below Small Craft conditions. 

$$

LEZ020-041-160345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1044 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds and waves have subsided below Small Craft conditions. 

$$

LOZ042-160600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1044 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-160900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1044 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-160900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1044 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
Reynolds
838 
WHUS71 KBUF 160537
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
137 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

LOZ042-160645-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
137 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...


$$

LOZ043-160900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
137 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-160900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
137 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
922 
WHUS71 KBUF 160837
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
437 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

LOZ043-161200-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
437 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-161200-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
437 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
821 
WHUS71 KBUF 161139
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
739 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

LOZ043-161245-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
739 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds and waves have fallen below advisory levels, therefore the 
advisory has been cancelled. 

$$

LOZ044-045-161245-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
739 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds and waves have fallen below advisory levels, therefore the 
advisory has been cancelled. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Apr 14, 1:26 PM EDT, 10 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 14, 1:26 PM EDT, 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
126 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track directly across the eastern Great Lakes
tonight before exiting across northern New England Monday. This
system will produce periods of rain today and tonight, with a line
of thunderstorms also crossing the region from west to east tonight.
Periods of light rain and wet snow will continue through Monday
before high pressure brings a return to dry weather Monday night and
early Tuesday. Temperatures will run below normal early in the week
before a significant warming trend arrives later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Radar imagery showing an area of widespread light rain with a few
embedded areas of moderate rain moving northeast across the region
early this afternoon. This initial area of rain is being supported
by strong isentropic upglide and moisture transport along a warm
frontal boundary, enhanced by convergence on the nose of a 50 knot
low level jet. This first batch of rain will continue to move
northeast across the area, focusing on the eastern Lake Ontario
region by mid to late afternoon. There will then be a several hour
break in the steady rain across Western NY late afternoon and early
evening, and across Central NY early to mid evening prior to the
next round of rainfall.

There will be a stark dichotomy in temperatures this afternoon and
evening. Low level northeast flow will stay locked in across the
Niagara Frontier and south shore of Lake Ontario, and the eastern
Lake Ontario region. Temperatures will remain in the upper 30s to
lower 40s most of the time in this area. Meanwhile, the warm sector
will surge northward into the western Southern Tier this afternoon,
reaching as far north as southern Erie/Wyoming counties and the
western Finger Lakes by this evening. Areas that break into the warm
sector will likely warm into the low to mid 60s by early this
evening.

The main event with this system will be through the first half of
tonight along the pre-frontal trough. Latest guidance still shows
the surface low tracking near the south shore of Lake Erie to near
KROC and then KART tonight. Latest high-res CAMS guidance
strengthens a line of convection along a pre-frontal trough just
ahead of the cold front this afternoon across central/eastern Ohio.
This line of showers and thunderstorms will arrive in far Western NY
around or shortly after 00Z, then progress rapidly east across the
area, crossing the Genesee Valley by 03Z and moving to Central NY
and east of Lake Ontario by 06Z. Behind this main line of
convection, a few light showers will persist overnight as DPVA with
the main mid level trough crosses the eastern Great Lakes.

Severe Potential...

The strongly forced synoptic scale setup will produce a high
shear/low CAPE environment. Forecast soundings show SBCAPE rising to
400-600J/kg this evening in the warm sector. The instability is not
being diurnally driven, rather, unstable air will be advected into
the region after dark by strong theta-E advection in the warm
sector. Very strong deep layer shear and strongly forced convergence
along the pre-frontal trough will likely support a linear storm
mode, as shown by most CAMS guidance. The line of storms will be
capable of producing damaging winds as the primary risk. Poor mid
level lapse rates and relatively shallow convective depth will
greatly limit the large hail potential. Low level shear is
impressive, with effective 0-1km helicity on the order of 300-400
m2/s2. Strong synoptic scale forcing and associated ageostrophic
flow adjustments combined with the strong low level shear may
support a few LEWP structures along the line of storms, with an
isolated QLCS tornado risk not out of the question. The severe
weather risk will primarily be from the western Southern Tier into
the western Finger Lakes. Farther north, near surface cold air and
associated strong low level inversion will likely prevent convective
wind from reaching the surface, including both Buffalo and Rochester.

Heavy Rain Potential...

The bulk of the heavy rain will fall in a very short period along
the convective line through the first half of tonight. The fast,
forward propagating nature of the convective line will greatly limit
potential for flooding. Rainfall totals will likely reach 0.75-1.25"
on average for most of the area from today through tonight, with a
few spots seeing 1.5" where the strongest convection develops. This
rain will likely be enough to produce ponding of water in poor
drainage areas, but more significant flooding is not expected. RFC
river forecasts show some rises on rivers, but none are forecast to
reach flood stage.

Monday the surface low will move through northern New England. The
mid level trough and wrap around moisture will slowly cross the
eastern Great Lakes, and combine with northwest upslope flow to
produce plenty of light rain and light, wet snow through the day. It
will be a chilly, breezy day with temperatures falling into the
upper 30s to lower 40s at lower elevations and mid 30s higher
terrain following warmer temperatures before daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A broad and low amplitude upper level longwave ridge will be over
the Central US Monday night, with the next system dropping through
the Pacific Northwest.  The resulting surface pattern will feature
high pressure over the Southeast US extending across NYS, while
cyclogenesis begins east of the Rockies Tuesday morning.

East of the developing low, a pseudo-stationary baroclinic boundary
will become a focus for showers that will eventually stretch from
the surface low in the central plains all the way across either NYS
or PA and off the coast. For the past several days, models have had
a good handle on the existence of this boundary, but have struggled
a little with location.  Being that the rain swath won't be
consistent and will have a relatively narrow N-S width of ~150 mi,
have no choice but to continue with a long period (Tue-Wed) of a
general chance of showers.  Similarly problematic will be
temperature forecasts.  If the boundary ends up to our south, we'll
see less precipitation but also lower temperatures. If overhead or
north, temperatures will be higher.  In short, the midweek period
features an overall low confidence forecast much of WNY.  There is
higher confidence for cooler and dry weather east of Lake Ontario
however, at least through Wednesday.

Wednesday night, the stalled frontal boundary, should eventually
move north into Ontario/Quebec, taking any rain across NYS, or into
and then north of NYS.  This will will put WNY in the warm sector
east of the deepening surface low over the midwest late Wednesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
By Thursday, most if not all of our region will be in the warm
sector as this boundary pushes northward into Canada. Depending on
the position of the boundary, there is a small risk of showers, but
the day should be mainly dry and pleasant with high temperatures in
the mid 60s to lower 70s.

As the low tracks across the central Great Lakes and into southern
Ontario, an associated cold/occluded front will move into the area.
However, there is poor model agreement on the strength and timing of
this, which introduces considerably uncertainty into the forecast
for Friday and Saturday. The 12Z GGEM is considerably faster and
stronger than GFS/ECMWF guidance, with the forecast hedging toward
the latter consensus. If this holds, Friday will remain on the warm
side with highs in the 60s (and possibly 70s). This said, some GFS
ensemble members support the much cooler GGEM, so it's possible that
it will turn out to be 10-20 degrees cooler. Either way, there is a
persistent risk of showers with the frontal boundary, and then with
the upper level low/trough. These will most likely be Friday or
Friday night, when there is ample instability to support some
embedded thunderstorms. The front should be through by Saturday
with cooler temperatures in the 50s and a continued risk of
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The first batch of rain will continue to move northeast across the
area this afternoon, focusing on the eastern Lake Ontario region by
late afternoon. There will then be a brief break in the steady rain
late afternoon and early evening across Western NY, and early to mid
evening across Central NY. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will then cross the area from west to east, reaching
far Western NY (KBUF,KIAG,KJHW) by around or shortly after 00Z, KROC
and KDSV by 03Z, and KART by 06Z. The thunderstorm potential will
only last for an hour or two at any one location. The line of storms
may produce gusty winds across the western Southern Tier and western
Finger Lakes.

CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR from west to east this afternoon,
with MVFR to IFR continuing tonight. VSBY will drop to IFR in areas
of heavier rainfall, especially along the convective line through
the first half of tonight. Some patchy fog may also develop for
several hours tonight in the KBUF,KIAG,KROC areas and south shore of
Lake Ontario in the low level chilly northeast flow off the lake,
with local IFR VSBY.

There will be a period of low level wind shear later this afternoon
and evening ahead of the convective line as a strong 50 knot low
level jet crosses the region.

The surface low will move across northern New England Monday.
Extensive wrap around moisture will produce occasional light rain
and wet snow on Monday with areas of MVFR VSBY. Widespread MVFR CIGS
will continue, with some IFR across higher terrain in the morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with showers likely.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will move across the eastern Great Lakes tonight before
exiting across northern New England Monday. Northeast winds will
increase ahead of this system this afternoon and evening, bringing
another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to the south shore
of Lake Ontario, and Lake Erie mainly from Dunkirk southwestward.
The northeast winds will quickly diminish later tonight as the low
moves by. West to northwest winds will quickly increase again Monday
morning in the wake of this system, with Small Craft Advisory worthy
winds and waves continuing through Monday night. A ridge of high
pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday,
bringing with it lighter winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LEZ040.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for
         LEZ041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for
         LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday
         for LOZ044-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Zaff
LONG TERM...Apffel/TMA
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 14, 5:34 AM EDT, 8 hours 2 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
534 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

NYZ012-013-019>021-085-150945-
Wyoming-Livingston-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
534 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of rain will move across the region through tonight.
Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.25 inches are expected. These rainfall
amounts may result in minor ponding of water in poor drainage areas.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this evening and early
tonight. Damaging winds will be the main threat, with isolated large
hail also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-010-011-150945-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-
534 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of rain will move across the region through tonight.
Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.25 inches are expected. These rainfall
amounts may result in minor flooding in poor drainage areas.

A line of thunderstorms will also develop this evening and early
tonight and move from west to east across the area. Some of these
storms will produce locally heavy rainfall, and some may also produce
gusty winds. There is a Marginal Risk of a few thunderstorms with
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-014-150945-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Ontario-
534 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of rain will move across the region through tonight.
Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.25 inches are expected. These rainfall
amounts may result in minor ponding of water in poor drainage areas.

A line of thunderstorms will also develop tonight and move from west
to east across the area. Some of these storms will produce locally
heavy rainfall, and some may also produce gusty winds. There is a
Marginal Risk of a few thunderstorms with damaging winds, especially
across the western Finger Lakes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-150945-
Jefferson-Lewis-
534 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Periods of rain will move across the region through tonight.
Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.25 inches are expected. These rainfall
amounts may result in minor ponding of water in poor drainage areas.

Runoff from the combination of rain and continued snowmelt from the
higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks will
result in another period of rising water along the Black River and
tributaries. While the river will experience rises, flooding is not
expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-150945-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
534 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-150945-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
534 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this evening and early
tonight. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 13, 8:28 PM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF59 hr
Apr 14, 7:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFChautauqua53 min
Apr 14, 7:41 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningBUF34 min
Apr 14, 7:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie41 min

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2019Every small craft advisory in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.