Small Craft Advisory 43, NWS Buffalo, NY

522 
WHUS71 KBUF 141348
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
948 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

LEZ040-142200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.190414T1400Z-190415T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
948 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...East 15 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-042-043-142200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.190414T1400Z-190415T0400Z/
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
948 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WINDS...Northeast 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

859 
WHUS71 KBUF 141736
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

LEZ041-150145-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T0800Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday.

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-150145-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T0900Z-190416T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday.

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-150145-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T1500Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM EDT
Tuesday.

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-150145-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...Northeast 15 to 25 knots through this evening. West 20 
  to 25 knots Monday.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-150145-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...Northeast 15 to 25 knots through this evening. West 15
  to 25 knots Monday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-150145-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...Northeast to 30 knots through this evening. Northwest 
  20 to 25 knots Monday and Monday evening.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-150145-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
136 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northeast 15 to 25 knots through this evening. 
  Northwest 20 to 25 knots Monday and Monday night.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

621 
WHUS71 KBUF 142346
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

LEZ040-150800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ041-150800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T0800Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-150800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-150800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T0900Z-190416T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-150800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-150800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-150800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T1500Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
746 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO
5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Reynolds

952 
WHUS71 KBUF 150537
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

LEZ040-151345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ041-151345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T0800Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-151345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T0900Z-190416T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-151345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-151345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-151345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-151345-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T1500Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
137 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

339 
WHUS71 KBUF 150940
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

LEZ040-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ041-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-151745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.190415T1500Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
540 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

477 
WHUS71 KBUF 151716
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

LEZ040-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ041-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-160000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-160130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-160130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-160130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
116 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

086 
WHUS71 KBUF 152345
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

LEZ040-160300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ041-160300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-160300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-160300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lower Niagara River-
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-160300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-160745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-160745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
745 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
Reynolds

253 
WHUS71 KBUF 160244
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1044 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

LEZ040-LOZ030-160345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lower Niagara River-
1044 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds and waves have subsided below Small Craft conditions. 

$$

LEZ020-041-160345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1044 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds and waves have subsided below Small Craft conditions. 

$$

LOZ042-160600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1044 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-160900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1044 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-160900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1044 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$
Reynolds

838 
WHUS71 KBUF 160537
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
137 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

LOZ042-160645-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
137 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...


$$

LOZ043-160900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
137 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-160900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
137 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
THIS MORNING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

922 
WHUS71 KBUF 160837
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
437 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

LOZ043-161200-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
437 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-161200-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
437 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

821 
WHUS71 KBUF 161139
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
739 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

LOZ043-161245-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0043.000000T0000Z-190416T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
739 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds and waves have fallen below advisory levels, therefore the 
advisory has been cancelled. 

$$

LOZ044-045-161245-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0044.000000T0000Z-190416T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
739 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.

Winds and waves have fallen below advisory levels, therefore the 
advisory has been cancelled. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
747 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track from eastern Texas into the Ohio Valley
Sunday and then into northern New England Monday. A soaking rain
will develop Sunday and continue Sunday night, with more
intermittent light rain lasting through Monday. Temperatures will
cool to below normal early next week before warming again later in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, surface high pressure will briefly build east towards the
eastern Great Lakes before retreating into southern Quebec by early
Sunday. Warm advection and moisture transport will begin to increase
out ahead of the system moving into the Ohio Valley, supporting an
increase in mid/high clouds from southwest to northeast tonight. Any
rain should hold off until around or just after daybreak. Lows will
be in the upper 30s in most areas, with some low to mid 30s across
the North Country.

Sunday and Sunday night a deep mid level trough will advance out of
the Midwest and into the central Great Lakes. Meanwhile a surface
low will move from the Ohio Valley Sunday to Lake Erie Sunday
evening before moving down the Saint Lawrence Valley late Sunday
night and Monday. Forcing for rainfall will come in several distinct
waves. The first will be a surge of strong warm advection/isentropic
upglide and moisture transport supported by a 45+ knot low level
jet. The warm advection rain will reach the western Southern Tier
around or shortly after daybreak Sunday, spreading quickly northeast
across the remainder of the area through midday. The best coverage
of warm advection rain will be across Western NY, and especially the
Niagara Frontier where a sharp near surface baroclinic zone will set
up. Precipitation will be much lighter and more intermittent in
nature with eastern extent, removed from the better forcing.

The next phase of support will cross the region from west to east
Sunday night as a pre-frontal trough and convectively enhanced mid
level shortwave moves into the eastern Great Lakes. Quality moisture
will be in place by then with PWAT exceeding 1 inch. Strong forcing
from DPVA ahead of the shortwave and strong convergence along the
pre-frontal trough will support a broken to solid line of convective
showers moving from west to east across the region. Enough
instability may move into the area to support a few thunderstorms as
well, mainly south of Lake Ontario.

Speaking of thunderstorms, SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe storms
into the western Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes. Strong
low/mid level flow and strong synoptic scale support are all there.
The severe weather risk will be conditional upon sufficient boundary
layer destabilization. Latest 12Z NAM suggests 500-600J/kg of SBCAPE
being advected into the western Southern Tier and western Finger
Lakes during the evening, and this may be sufficient to support a
low risk of damaging winds if a linear storm mode is realized. Some
recent runs of CAMS guidance suggest this possibility.

The rainfall forecast is quite difficult, given that all of the
heavier rainfall will be associated with deep moist convection.
Initially on Sunday the only heavy rain potential will be across the
Niagara Frontier where isentropic ascent will be enhanced by a sharp
low level boundary. Sunday night the heavy rain will be associated
with a fairly fast moving band of showers and possible storms moving
west to east across the area. Given the convective nature of the
rain, totals will vary widely with 0.75-1.25 inches on average. A
few areas may exceed 1.25 inches locally in heavier convection and
also across the Niagara Frontier. The heaviest amounts will likely
miss the eastern Lake Ontario region where snowpack remains across
the higher terrain. The forecast amounts do not support any
organized flood potential at this time, but trends will continue to
be monitored.

Temperatures will be intriguing Sunday. The warm sector will mix
into the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes with temperatures
rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Low level northeast flow may
stay locked in from Rochester to the Niagara Frontier including
Buffalo, and also across the North Country. This will likely keep
temperatures in the 40s, if not low 40s, through the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
On Monday, the axis of an upper level trough will be moving east
across the Northeast US while a still deepening surface low moves
into Northern New England.  Cold air advection throughout the
atmospheric column together with a northwest upslope flow and plenty
of low and mid level moisture should allow for at least a likelihood
of showers, cloudy skies, and chilly afternoon highs about 10F below
normal (which should be in the mid 50s for this time of year).

The generally light precipitation, possibly ending with a few
flakes, will finally come to an end Monday night as an upper level
ridge moves toward the region along with corresponding surface high
pressure. The airmass will dry out fairly quickly aloft, with low
clouds dissipating as well during the evening.  The result may result
in temperatures dropping to around the freezing mark overnight.

On Tuesday and lasting into Tuesday night, the next system may
already by starting to impact the region. The origins of this system
are still crossing south of the Aleutian Islands, with an eventual
evolution that is kind of similar to the last large-scale synoptic
system that developed over the central portion of the US earlier in
the week. As the next upper level PV anomaly moves southeast into
the Intermountain West, it will spawn a surface low east of the
Rockies.  A far reaching warm front will extend east all the way to
NYS, with an arm of precipitation (mostly rain except perhaps at the
highest elevation spots) eventually stretching across the region
along a tightening stubborn baroclinic zone.  Eventually, the warm
advection south of the region should win out, but it's too early to
know if this will happen Tuesday night or later on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Wednesday, a west to east oriented frontal boundary will extend
across our region. Meanwhile, a closed 500 mb low across the mid-
west will gradually open up and drift towards the Great Lakes
Region. This will provide a southerly flow of moisture which will
interact with the strengthening frontal boundary and cause rain to
spread into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. There is fairly
good model agreement, enough so to support likely PoPs along the
boundary.

By Thursday, most if not all of our region will be in the warm
sector as this boundary pushes northward into Canada. Depending on
the position of the boundary, there is a small risk of showers, but
the day should be mainly dry and pleasant with high temperatures in
the mid 60s to lower 70s.

As the low tracks across the central Great Lakes and into southern
Ontario, an associated cold/occluded front will move into the area.
However, there is poor model agreement on the strength and timing of
this, which introduces considerably uncertainty into the forecast
for Friday and Saturday. The 12Z GGEM is considerably faster and
stronger than GFS/ECMWF guidance, with the forecast hedging toward
the latter consensus. If this holds, Friday will remain on the warm
side with highs in the 60s (and possibly 70s). This said, some GFS
ensemble members support the much cooler GGEM, so it's possible that
it will turn out to be 10-20 degrees cooler. Either way, there is a
persistent risk of showers with the frontal boundary, and then with
the upper level low/trough. These will most likely be Friday or
Friday night, when there is ample instability to support some
embedded thunderstorms. The front should be through by Saturday
with cooler temperatures in the 50s and a continued risk of
showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will be the rule at area terminals tonight with
thickening mid/high clouds. Otherwise, deepening low pressure system
over eastern Texas will track NE overnight sending copious amounts
of moisture towards the lower lakes as it steams northward into the
Ohio Valley by Sunday morning. Rain will reach the western Southern
Tier by 12Z Sunday, spreading northeast across the rest of the area
by 18Z Sunday. The best coverage of rain on Sunday will be near Lake
Erie from DKK to KBUF and KIAG, with lighter, more intermittent rain
farther east.

CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR across Western NY by Sunday
afternoon as the low levels saturate. MVFR to IFR VSBY may also
develop in BR or areas of fog at KBUF-KIAG where low level cold air
remains in place, and possibly across the hilltops of the Southern
Tier.

Outlook...

Sunday night...MVFR/IFR with showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms.
Monday...MVFR with light showers.
Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will bring a brief lull in the wind tonight and early
Sunday morning. Low pressure will then move from the Ohio Valley
Sunday across the eastern Great Lakes Sunday night, then down the
Saint Lawrence Valley Monday. Northeast winds will increase ahead of
this system Sunday and Sunday evening, bringing another round of
Small Craft Advisory conditions to the south shore of Lake Ontario,
and Lake Erie mainly from Dunkirk southwestward. The northeast winds
will quickly diminish later Sunday night as the low moves by. West
to northwest winds will quickly increase again Monday morning in the
wake of this system, with Small Craft Advisory worthy winds and
waves continuing. A ridge of high pressure will build into the
eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday, bringing with it lighter winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...AR/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Zaff
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR/Hitchcock
MARINE...AR/Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
137 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

NYZ001>003-010-011-141745-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-
137 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periods of rain will move across the region Sunday through Sunday
night. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches are expected. These
rainfall amounts may result in minor flooding in poor drainage areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-012>014-019>021-085-141745-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
137 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periods of rain will move across the region Sunday through Sunday
night. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.25 inches are expected. These
rainfall amounts may result in minor ponding of water in poor
drainage areas.

A line of thunderstorms may also develop Sunday night and move from
west to east across the area. Some of these storms will produce
locally heavy rainfall, and some may also produce gusty winds. There
is a Marginal Risk of a few thunderstorms with damaging winds,
especially across the western Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-141745-
Jefferson-Lewis-
137 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periods of rain will move across the region Sunday through Sunday
night. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.25 inches are expected. These
rainfall amounts may result in minor ponding of water in poor
drainage areas.

Runoff from the combination of rain and continued snowmelt from the
higher terrain of the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks will
result in another period of rising water along the Black River and
tributaries. While the river will experience rises, flooding is not
expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-141745-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
137 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock