Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Buffalo, NY

415 
WWUS51 KBUF 312327
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
727 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

NYC049-010000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-191101T0000Z/
Lewis NY-
727 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY...

At 726 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near McKeever, or 9
miles west of Old Forge, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lyonsdale, Greig, Port Leyden, Lyons Falls, Soft Maple Reservoir,
Brantingham and Sperryville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 7536 4375 7536 4399 7516 4361 7511
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 235DEG 31KT 4368 7515 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Thomas

691 
WWUS51 KBUF 312346
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
746 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

NYC049-312355-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-191101T0000Z/
Lewis NY-
746 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEWIS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4350 7536 4375 7536 4399 7516 4361 7511
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 235DEG 31KT 4378 7496 

$$

Thomas

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
634 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will deepen while moving across
Western New York tonight before reaching southern Quebec by Friday
morning. This low will produce widespread rain through this
evening, with heavy rain lasting through tonight east of Lake
Ontario. A strong cold front will sweep east across the region
this evening, with damaging winds developing in the wake of the
cold front tonight through Friday. Much colder air will move
into the region Friday through the weekend, with the first
snowflakes of the season possible in some areas east of the
lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A line of convection has develop east of Lake Ontario, extending
south across Central New York. NYS Mesonet site at Central
Square showed a wind gust to 56 mph, suggesting that this rain
is strong enough to help mix the LLJ to the surface, resulting
in a severe weather risk for Oswego an Lewis counties for the
next couple hours.

A very strong and progressive mid level trough currently moving
into the western Great Lakes will cross the central Great Lakes
tonight before ending up in southern Quebec by Friday morning.
6 p.m. surface analysis shows low pressure across eastern Lake
Erie and this low will strengthen rapidly during the evening
hours. The still deepening low will reach southern Quebec by
Friday morning.

Expect two bursts of wind. First will be with a powerful cold
front which will sweep east across the eastern Great Lakes this
evening as the low passes our longitude. This will bring a brief
period of gusty winds as it moves through. The second, and most
damaging winds, will arrive with a subtle surface trough which
will reach far western New York around midnight. Very strong
large scale ascent ahead of the sharp trough will combine with
strong upper level divergence driven by jet dynamics and
diffluent upper level flow to produce a period of deep layer
ascent through this evening. A strong 65+ knot low level jet
will provide ample moisture transport and low level convergence.
All of this forcing and moisture coming together to produce
widespread rain across the region this afternoon. The widespread
rain will last through most of tonight east of Lake Ontario,
while tapering off early this evening across Western New York.

Rainfall...

The highest rainfall amounts will be found east of Lake Ontario,
where the most favorable and long lasting juxtaposition of moisture
transport, forcing, and low level convergence is found. Rainfall
through Friday morning will likely range from 2-3 inches in this
area. This may be enough to produce some flooding in poor drainage
areas and small creeks initially. Flooding may develop on the larger
rivers as well later Friday through Saturday. More on this in the
hydro section below. Farther west, rainfall will likely range from 1-
1.75 inches from the upper Genesee Valley to the western Finger
Lakes and points southeast of Lake Ontario, with closer to 1 inch
across the Niagara Frontier and close to Lake Erie.

Winds...

Southwest winds will increase dramatically early this evening
following the cold frontal passage. The timing of the cold front
still looks to be around 7 p.m. in the Buffalo metro area,
between 8 and 9 p.m. at Rochester and the Genesee Valley and
between 10 and 11 p.m. east of Lake Ontario. This initial front
will produce strong winds gusting to 50 mph, but the strongest
winds will not arrive until after midnight tonight with the
passage of a secondary surface trough. Following the passage of
this late tonight and Friday morning, the boundary layer flow
will veer more westerly as the low reaches southern Quebec.
Following the wind direction change to westerly, there will be a
period of a few hours with 60+ knot winds at 850mb. Past events
have shown this strong westerly flow signaling wind damage
spreading well inland across the interior Southern Tier and
western Finger Lakes, rather than staying in the typical lake
plain locations.

Potential Vorticity analysis of this system is impressive, with
the 1.5 PVU surface descending to below 700mb. This suggests a
tropopause fold and intrusion of stratospheric air into the
troposphere, which will enhance lapse rates and mixing
potential. Furthermore, a fairly impressive isallobaric
fall/rise couplet will pass across the eastern Great Lakes.

Based on the lastest model guidance, thinking has changed little
with the strongest winds occurring tonight northeast of Lake Erie,
centered around the 11 pm to 5 am time frame, and Friday
morning farther east once the flow veers more westerly, centered
around the 4 am to 10 am time frame. Peak wind gusts will
likely reach 60-65 mph in many areas, with some potential for 70
mph gusts especially near the eastern shores of Lake Ontario.
The strong winds will diminish fairly quickly from west to east
Friday morning into the early afternoon as the surface low and
stronger winds aloft move east of the area.

Following the cold front, the airmass will grow rapidly cold enough
to support a lake response off Lake Erie later tonight, and by
Friday morning off Lake Ontario. The boundary layer may become cold
enough to support some wet snowflakes across higher terrain by early
Friday morning, but marginal temperatures and a rapidly drying
synoptic scale airmass should prevent accumulation. The lake effect
rain/snow showers will taper off later Friday, but may not end
altogether.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure across the Ohio Valley will build
northeastward across PA into eastern NY Friday night. This will
cause winds to shift out of the southwest, causing any light lake
effect rain and snow showers to shift northeast of both lakes then
diminish through the night as drier air and subsidence work in
across the area. Cool temperatures expected Friday night with lows
ranging from the upper 20s across the higher terrain to the mid 30s
across the lake plains.

There will be a break in the weather Saturday, with just the chance
for a few rainshowers across far western NY by late in the day ahead
of the next deepening shortwave trough and attendant surface cold
front that will move across western and northcentral NY Saturday
evening through the early overnight. Some warmer air will advect
across the region on a southwesterly flow ahead the approaching
system, which will help to boost temperatures a bit with highs
mainly in the mid to upper 40s.

Things get a bit more interesting Saturday night as cold air deepens
across western and northcentral NY with temperatures aloft at 850mb
dipping to around -6 to -7C overnight. There will be mix of rain and
snow showers initially across the higher terrain, with just plain
rain at lower elevations Saturday evening. Precipitation will
transition to all snow across the higher elevations overnight, with
a mix of rain and snow showers across the lower terrain. Lake effect
rain and snow showers will initially be northeast of the lakes,
transitioning to east of the lakes for the second half of the night.
Increasing lake induced instability combined with equilibrium levels
up to 15 Kft and saturation through the dendritic snow growth zone
may lead to the first accumulating snows across the higher terrain,
with possibly a sloppy coating in a few spots across the lower
terrain. Temperatures will again fall into the upper 20s across the
higher terrain, with mainly low 30s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake snows will be ongoing but in the process of slowly weakening
early Sunday. As we move through the day Sunday, lake snows will
rapidly begin to shut down as equilibrium levels fall with a
strengthening subsidence inversion. Lake snow will also be hampered
by weak warm advection occuring in the mid-level. Additionally, air
temperatures will be gradually warming over the course of the day,
so any additional accumulations will be minor after sunrise Sunday.
With that said, surface high pressure is forecast to build into the
Mid-Atlantic which will bring dry and quiet weather to the Lower
Lakes as we head into Monday.

Monday, surface high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will be the main
player influencing our weather. This feature will bring dry and a
bit warmer conditions to the region with highs rebounding into the
50s. Although, a weak low does race by just to our west and
northwest as it heads into Canada. This feature may introduce some
cloud cover across far Western New York. Tuesday into Tuesday night,
precipitation chances again increase as another low races by to our
west dragging its associated cold front across the region. Behind
the cold front, a much colder air mass filters in across the Lower
Lakes with some lake response. After Wednesday, significant
differences arise with the ECMWF showing high pressure building in
across the Lower Lakes with cold conditions(H850T -12C/-14C). While
the GFS brings another weak weak wave across the forecast area with
some light snow for late Thursday into Friday. Either way, it
appears that the later half of the week will be colder at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread rain across the area this afternoon in advance of a broad
maturing area of low pressure over Ohio. Flight conditions generally
IFR into early this evening as rain continues. A cold front will
cross the region from west to east this evening and into tonight. A
band of heavier showers will develop with the front. Thunder is not
likely with the line of showers this evening, but cannot be
completely ruled out.

VERY WINDY conditions expected to move into the terminals tonight.
West winds 25-30 kts with gusts up to 55 knots are expected behind
the cold front at KIAG, KBUF, KROC and KART this evening through
late tonight. Slightly lower winds expected at KJHW however gusts up
to 45 kts are still expected. Windy conditions will continue into
Friday with wind gusts of 40-50kts expected at the terminals.

Outlook...
Friday...High operational impact expected. Strong winds with
showers likely.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Saturday night and Sunday...Mainly VFR, except IFR in lake
effect rain and snow showers east of the lakes.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will develop across the lower Great Lakes this
evening, ending up in southern Quebec by Friday morning. A
strong cold front will sweep east across the eastern Great Lakes
this evening setting the stage for a high end gale to low end
storm event on the lakes.

Southwest winds will rapidly increase behind the cold front, with
widespread gales on Lakes Erie and Ontario tonight through Friday
morning. The strongest winds will be found on the eastern end of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, where a brief period of storm force
winds is likely very late tonight and Friday morning. Waves will
reach the 16-20 foot range on both lakes Erie and Ontario. The wind
event will be relatively short lived, with winds quickly diminishing
Friday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Model guidance continuing to suggest the axis of heaviest rain
is likely to be found east of Lake Ontario, where 2-3 inches of
rain is expected through Friday morning. This may result in
flooding of poor drainage areas and small creeks initially.
Later Friday through Saturday as the runoff filters into the
larger rivers, they will see significant rises as well. MMEFS
ensemble forecasts suggest minor flooding is possible along the
Black River, and also the Moose River near McKeever. Flooding is
also possible on some of the other larger streams that drain
the Tug Hill Plateau and western Adirondacks. With this in mind,
a Flood Watch remains for the eastern Lake Ontario region this
afternoon through Friday evening.

Farther west, 1.0-1.75" of rain is expected from the Upper
Genesee Valley to the western Finger Lakes, with closer to 1.0
inch close to Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier. This may
result in some ponding of water in poor drainage areas, but
significant flooding is not anticipated.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong southwest winds behind the cold front will produce a
seiche on Lake Erie tonight through midday Friday. This is an
unusual situation, with an initial rise expected shortly
following the passage of a cold front, and then a secondary rise
expected with the strongest winds which will be after midnight.
Typically the highest levels for Lake Erie are with the initial
surge, but in this case its likely that the second surge will
exceed the first. Expect levels to rise to around 8 ft around 8
p.m. this evening, then hold steady before rising again after
midnight. Expect a peak of between 9-10 feet above low water
datum at Buffalo, which would result in lakeshore flooding along
the Lake Erie shore. Flooding is also likely along the Niagara
River. The elevated Lake Erie water results in more water
flowing down the Niagara River, which can cause flooding along
the riverside in locations such as Cayuga Island in the City of
Niagara Falls.

Strong southwest to west winds combined with high lake levels
will result in lakeshore flooding and shoreline erosion across
Jefferson and Oswego counties. Flooding may also develop across
the Thousand Islands region of the Saint Lawrence River as water
is pushed down the river from Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Warning until 1 PM EDT Friday for NYZ001>003-010>012-
     019-020-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 1 PM EDT Friday for NYZ001-010-
     019-085.
     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 4 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ004>008.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT
     Friday for NYZ006-007.
     Flood Watch through Friday evening for NYZ006>008.
     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 1 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ013-014-021.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT Friday for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Friday
         for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT Friday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Friday
         for LOZ042-043-062.
         Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 1 PM EDT Friday for
         LOZ044-045-063>065.
         Gale Warning from 3 AM to 5 PM EDT Friday for SLZ022-
         024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HSK/TMA
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock/TMA/Apffel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
118 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

NYZ008-011730-
Lewis-
118 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-007-011730-
Oswego-Jefferson-
118 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT
FRIDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM
EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-014-021-011730-
Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
118 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002-003-011-012-020-011730-
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
118 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-010-019-085-011730-
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
118 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
FRIDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-011730-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
118 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-011730-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
118 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-011730-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
118 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-043-062-011730-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
118 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ044-045-063>065-011730-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
118 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-011730-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
118 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.
   Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
330 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

NYZ007-008-312230-
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
330 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...Heavy Rain and Isolated Thunder this afternoon...

An area of rain is advancing across the Finger Lakes and towards
Central New York this afternoon...including Jefferson and Lewis
Counties.

Heavy rain for the next 1 to 2 hours will create poor visibilities
and ponding of water on roadways, and could produce low lying or
poor drainage flooding.

Additionally, a few rumbles of thunder are possible.

Heavy rain will taper off to a lighter rain event across the
region.

Thomas

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
427 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-312300-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Buffalo, Batavia,
Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
427 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

...A RAINY EVENING COMMUTE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS...

There will be moderate to heavy rainfall during the evening
commute, with about a half inch of rain expected between 430 and
700 p.m. Expect ponding of water in areas of poor drainage.
Motorists are urged to slow down, and remain alert for localized
flooding, especially in low-lying areas and underpasses.

A strong cold front will reach far western New York this evening
and bring a brief period of gusty winds before the strongest
winds arrive later tonight. Expect wind gusts to 50 mph with this
front. The front will reach Dunkirk and areas west around 6 p.m.
and Buffalo, Niagara Falls, and Batavia around 7 p.m.

Apffel