Alert archive / New York / High Wind Watches in 2019

High Wind Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 6, 20198 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this high wind watch at Feb 6, 2019, 2:49 PM EST for 8 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 7, 2019, 11:00 PM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 6, 2019, 2:49 PM EST (19:49 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 7, 2019, 11:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 7, 2019, 10:11 AM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2019-02-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2019-02-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 319 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
852 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
319 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
396 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

866 
WWUS71 KBUF 061949
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
249 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085-070400-
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.A.0001.190208T0400Z-190208T2200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
249 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a High Wind
Watch, which is in effect from Thursday evening through Friday
afternoon.

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, 
  and Chautauqua counties.

* TIMING...From late Thursday evening through late Friday 
  afternoon.

* WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts will bring down trees and power 
  lines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property 
  damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel 
  in high profile vehicles will be very difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage,
including downed trees and power lines that could result in power
outages. Home owners should secure personal property.

&&

$$

NYZ007-070400-
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.A.0001.190208T0900Z-190208T2200Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
249 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a High Wind
Watch, which is in effect from late Thursday night through Friday
afternoon.

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* TIMING...From late Thursday night through late Friday 
  afternoon.

* WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts will bring down trees and power 
  lines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property 
  damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel 
  in high profile vehicles will be very difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage,
including downed trees and power lines that could result in power
outages. Home owners should secure personal property.

&&

$$

Apffel
3 follow-up statements
683 
WWUS71 KBUF 070209
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
909 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085-071015-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.190208T0400Z-190208T2200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
909 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, 
  and Chautauqua counties.

* TIMING...From late Thursday evening through late Friday 
  afternoon.

* WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts will bring down trees and power 
  lines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property 
  damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. 
  Travel in high profile vehicles will be very difficult at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage,
including downed trees and power lines that could result in power
outages. Home owners should secure personal property.

&&

$$

NYZ007-071015-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.190208T0900Z-190208T2200Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
909 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* TIMING...From late Thursday night through late Friday 
  afternoon.

* WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts will bring down trees and power 
  lines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property 
  damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. 
  Travel in high profile vehicles will be very difficult at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage,
including downed trees and power lines that could result in power
outages. Home owners should secure personal property.

&&

$$
922 
WWUS71 KBUF 070850
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
350 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085-071700-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.190208T0400Z-190208T2200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Jamestown, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
350 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, 
  and Chautauqua counties.

* TIMING...From late this evening through late Friday afternoon.

* WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts will bring down trees and power 
  lines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property 
  damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. 
  Travel in high profile vehicles will be very difficult at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage,
including downed trees and power lines that could result in power
outages. Home owners should secure personal property.

&&

$$

NYZ007-071700-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0001.190208T0900Z-190208T2200Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
350 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* TIMING...From late tonight through late Friday afternoon.

* WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts will bring down trees and power 
  lines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property 
  damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. 
  Travel in high profile vehicles will be very difficult at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong winds of 58 mph or greater could produce property damage,
including downed trees and power lines that could result in power
outages. Home owners should secure personal property.

&&

$$
775 
WWUS71 KBUF 071511
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1011 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

NYZ019-072315-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0001.190208T0400Z-190208T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0001.190208T0500Z-190208T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.190207T1511Z-190207T2000Z/
Chautauqua-
Including the city of Jamestown
1011 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to 5 PM EST
Friday. A Dense Fog Advisory has also been issued. This Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect until 3 PM EST this afternoon.

* LOCATIONS...Chautauqua county.

* TIMING...The Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through late this 
  afternoon. The High Wind Warning is in effect from midnight 
  tonight through late Friday afternoon.

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...Visibilities a quarter of a mile or less at times.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts will bring down trees and power
  lines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property
  damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. Travel
  in high profile vehicles will be very difficult at times. Prior
  to the wind, dense fog will cause low visibilities, particularly
  over higher terrain. This will result in poor driving
  conditions. 
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and
could result in property damage, including downed trees and power
lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Home owners should
secure loose objects.

A Dense Fog Advisory is issued when dense fog will substantially
reduce visibilities, resulting in hazardous driving conditions in
some areas. Motorists are advised to use caution and slow down,
as objects on and near roadways will be seen only at close range.
Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv stations for
further details or updates.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>012-085-072315-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0001.190208T0400Z-190208T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0001.190208T0500Z-190208T2200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Orchard Park, and Springville
1011 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to 5 PM EST
Friday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Erie, Genesee, and 
  Wyoming counties.

* TIMING...From midnight tonight through late Friday afternoon.

* WINDS...Southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts will bring down trees and power 
  lines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property 
  damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. 
  Travel in high profile vehicles will be very difficult at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and
could result in property damage, including downed trees and power
lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Home owners should
secure loose objects.

&&

$$

NYZ007-072315-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0001.190208T0900Z-190208T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0001.190208T0900Z-190209T0000Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
1011 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday. The
High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* LOCATIONS...Jefferson county.

* TIMING...From late tonight through early Friday evening.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts will bring down trees and power 
  lines and result in scattered power outages. Minor property 
  damage is also possible, especially to roofs and siding. 
  Travel in high profile vehicles will be very difficult at 
  times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds of 58 mph or greater will make driving difficult and
could result in property damage, including downed trees and power
lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Home owners should
secure loose objects.

&&

$$

NYZ013-014-020-021-072315-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FG.Y.0001.190207T1511Z-190207T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.190208T0500Z-190208T2200Z/
Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Including the cities of Geneseo, Canandaigua, Olean, 
and Wellsville
1011 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Dense Fog
Advisory, which is in effect until 3 PM EST this afternoon. A
Wind Advisory has also been issued. This Wind Advisory is in
effect from midnight tonight to 5 PM EST Friday.

* LOCATIONS...Livingston, Ontario, Cattaraugus, and Allegany 
  counties.

* TIMING...The Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through late this 
  afternoon. The Wind Advisory is in effect from midnight 
  tonight through late Friday afternoon.

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...Visibilities a quarter of a mile or less at
  times.

* IMPACTS..Dense fog today will cause low visibilities,
  particularly over higher terrain. This will result in poor
  driving conditions. Winds overnight and Tues may bring down a
  few tree limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in
  high profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Dense Fog Advisory is issued when dense fog will substantially
reduce visibilities, resulting in hazardous driving conditions in
some areas. Motorists are advised to use caution and slow down,
as objects on and near roadways will be seen only at close range.
Stay tuned to weather radio or other radio and tv stations for
further details or updates.

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-072315-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.190208T0900Z-190209T0600Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
1011 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM EST
Saturday.

* LOCATIONS...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.

* TIMING...From late tonight through overnight Friday night.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

NYZ008-072315-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0003.190208T0900Z-190209T0000Z/
Lewis-
Including the city of Lowville
1011 AM EST Thu Feb 7 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Friday.

* LOCATIONS...Lewis county.

* TIMING...From late tonight through early Friday evening.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* IMPACTS...Winds of this magnitude may bring down a few tree
  limbs and result in isolated power outages. Travel in high
  profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts of up to 57 mph will make driving difficult and
could result in minor property damage. Home owners should secure
personal property.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high wind watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind watch went out at Feb 6, 2:06 PM EST, 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 6, 2:06 PM EST, 43 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
206 PM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue eastward through the night. Rain and
freezing rain will transition to widespread drizzle and freezing
drizzle as that occurs. On Thursday, another surface low will
track to our west and north, bringing milder and wet conditions
by afternoon followed by windy and colder conditions Thursday
night and Friday. Cold air flowing across Lake Ontario Friday
night and Saturday will bring accumulating lake effect snow to
areas east and southeast of the Lake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Amorphous inverted surface troughing can be noted extending up
into western New York in the surface observations. The axis of
this aligns fairly well with the surface freezing line which
currently extends through Erie County eastward, basically down
the Thruway. As we go through the evening, hi-res model
solutions favor closing off the troughing into a closed surface
low and tracking said low down the then location of the surface
trough axis. The exact corridor of this track isn't particularly
well agreed upon even at this close juncture, however the mere
presence of the closed surface circulation suggest a stronger
possibility of sub-freezing temperatures lingering to the north
of its track through the evening hours than an open solution
would. That said, northeasterly flow to the north of the track
will continually feed colder air toward the western Lake Ontario
shoreline. This will lead to the strongest ice accumulations
north of the Niagara Escarpment, where below freezing
temperatures should remain for the duration. South of the
Thruway, temperatures have risen enough to at least temporarily
halt ice accretion.

Behind the passing surface wave this evening, large scale
forcing for ascent should start to wane. This will allow for
steady precipitation to end around the evening rush hour in
Buffalo and shortly thereafter in Rochester, while lingering in
the North Country through the evening. However, almost no dry
advection is present in the wake of this wave. As a result,
abundant low level moisture will likely result in widespread
drizzle/freezing drizzle (dependent upon the surface
temperatures) and fog right into Thursday morning. And in
particular for the Buffalo and Rochester areas, while we may
slide slightly above freezing this evening, there is a good
likelihood that we drop back below overnight with drizzle
transitioning back to freezing drizzle.

Warm advection increases rapidly on Thursday with southerly flow
increasing. This should mix out fog and low level moisture. As a
result, temperatures should jump rapidly during the day into the
50s as rain ahead of a cold from approaches from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The system dry slot will punch through the region late Thursday
night into Friday, as the low pressure center continues to
deepen as it lifts through Ontario into Quebec, forcing a
powerful cold front through the area. This will bring a quick
end to the precipitation as the cold front swings through. Cold
air will rapidly rush into the area in wake of the front, with
temperatures dropping into the 20s through the day Friday. There
will be the potential for a flash freeze given wet surfaces
from all the preceding rain.

In addition, an increasing pressure gradient coupled with drier air
and cold air advection into the region will likely result in a
period of strong gusty winds. The potential for the strongest
wind gusts look to be in the typically favored west-southwest
flow areas northeast of Lake Erie and Ontario, including the
Buffalo/Niagara Falls area over to Rochester. Momentum transfer
profiles suggesting these areas will likely see gusts of 50 to
55 mph, perhaps even higher. Wind headlines will need to be
considered as the event nears.

The incoming colder air will allow for a brief lake response later
Friday into Friday night, this will especially be the case east
and southeast of a fully open Lake Ontario. A few inches of
snowfall is not out of the question.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Saturday a cold...but increasingly dry west-northwesterly flow
will be in place across our region...in between departing low
pressure over Labrador and high pressure building across the Central
Great Lakes. This should result in scattered lake effect snow
showers gradually diminishing downwind of Lake Ontario...with mainly
dry conditions the rule elsewhere. With 850 mb temps in the lower
half of the negative teens...highs will struggle to get out of the
lower to mid 20s in most locations...with portions of the North
Country not making it out of the upper teens.

Saturday night and Sunday the aforementioned surface ridge will
settle southeastward and off the mid-Atlantic coastline...with
its axis drifting across our region and eventually into central
and eastern New York. This will provide our area with mainly dry
and quiet weather...with just an outside chance of some light snow
attendant to a developing weak baroclinic zone aloft/passing upper
level jet streak possibly reaching the Southern Tier later Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise temperatures will continue to run a bit below
average...with lows in the 5 to 15 above range Saturday night
followed by highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s on Sunday.

Sunday night and Monday the above mentioned weak baroclinic zone and
passing upper level jet will bring a general chance of some light
snow areawide...with the bulk of this likely to come Sunday night.
Following the passage of these features...Canadian high pressure
will then build across our region and bring a return to mainly dry
weather during Monday. As for temperatures...lows Sunday night
should range from the teens across the North Country/interior
portions of the Southern Tier to the lower 20s south of Lake
Ontario...with highs on Monday then climbing back into the upper
20s to mid 30s.

As we move on into the last 24 hours of this period...another system
of southern stream origins then looks to advance into the region
during the Monday night-Tuesday time frame. Given the distant time
frame and with model guidance not surprisingly all over the place on
its  strength...track...and timing...for now have just introduced
some broadbrush chance PoPs for rain and snow...with temperatures
nudging back up to a little above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low end MVFR conditions will likely yield to IFR conditions as
rain and freezing rain gradually yields to drizzle and freezing
drizzle overnight. Visibilities and ceilings will remain
degraded into Thursday morning, after which increasing southerly
flow should allow for a period of VFR conditions before the
arrival of a cold front Thursday night.

Outlook...

Thursday...IFR/MVFR with rain and possibly a thunderstorm.
Friday...IFR/MVFR windy with rain to snow.
Saturday..VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Sunday...VFR.
Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow.

&&

.MARINE...
An inverted trough will pass across the Eastern Great Lakes region
today and tonight, with an easterly flow across Lake Ontario.
Freshening winds will increase to around 20 knots on the western
waters of Lake Ontario, with small craft advisories continuing. As
this surface feature advances eastward winds will slacken, with
conditions falling below small craft thresholds early Thursday
morning.

Another surface low will pass by to our west and north Thursday
night and Friday. This track, and deepening to the surface low will
bring much stronger winds...possibly to gale force on the Great
Lakes. This potential will be added to the HWO product.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Another system is expected to track to our west on Thursday,
with another period of warmer temperatures and rain expected.
This system has the potential to produce more substantial
rainfall from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. This has
the potential to cause additional flooding in some areas due to
rainfall and run-off, depending on how much rainfall and how
warm it gets. This has the potential to again start to move the
ice jams on the Buffalo area creeks, thus a flood watch was
issues for Thursday to Friday morning.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Users should be wary of unrepresentative gauge
readings with ice as hydro gauges are designed to measure for
ice free conditions. High levels seen on many of the Buffalo
Area Creek gauges are not representative of the true flow of
water. Ice buildup around the gauge can result in much higher
readings than are actually occuring on the river as a whole. For
these reasons, gauge readings due to ice jams are not counted
as records.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ004>006-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ001>003-
     010-011.
     Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for
     NYZ010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042-043.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Fries/Thomas
NEAR TERM...Fries
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Fries
MARINE...Thomas
HYDROLOGY...Apffel/TMA/Fries
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 6, 5:23 AM EST, 9 hours 26 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
523 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

NYZ001>003-010-011-071030-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-
523 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the potential for substantial rainfall along with warmer
temperatures Thursday afternoon and Thursday night which could have
possible impacts on area creeks and rivers, especially any that
recently experienced ice jam flooding.

A strong cold front will cross the area late Thursday night through
early Friday. Strong gusty west-southwest winds in its wake will be
common across much of western and north central New York through
Friday afternoon. Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-071030-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
523 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the potential for substantial rainfall along with warmer
temperatures Thursday afternoon and Thursday night which could have
possible impacts on area creeks and rivers, especially any that
recently experienced ice jam flooding.

A strong cold front will cross the area late Thursday night through
early Friday. Gusty west-southwest winds in its wake will be common
across much of western and north central New York through Friday
afternoon. Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-071030-
Lewis-
523 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the potential for substantial rainfall along with warmer
temperatures Thursday afternoon and Thursday night which could have
possible impacts on area creeks and rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-013-020-021-071030-
Wyoming-Livingston-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
523 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the potential for substantial rainfall along with warmer
temperatures Thursday afternoon and Thursday night which could have
possible impacts on area creeks and rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-014-071030-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Ontario-
523 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the potential for substantial rainfall along with warmer
temperatures Thursday afternoon and Thursday night which could have
possible impacts on area creeks and rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-071030-
Jefferson-
523 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM
EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the potential for substantial rainfall along with warmer
temperatures Thursday afternoon and Thursday night which could have
possible impacts on area creeks and rivers.

A strong cold front will cross the area Friday morning. Gusty west-
southwest winds in its wake will be common across much of western and
north central New York through Friday afternoon. Wind gusts could
exceed 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-071030-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
523 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gales force winds are possible late Thursday night into Friday,
possibly into Friday night on Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 6, 8:50 AM EST, 5 hours 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
850 AM EST WED FEB 06 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 AM     FREEZING RAIN    NIAGARA FALLS AIRPORT   43.11N  78.94W
02/06/2019  M0.04 INCH       NIAGARA            NY   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900706

JAM
Local storm report, Feb 6, 10:10 AM EST, 4 hours 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EST WED FEB 06 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     FREEZING RAIN    3 S WILSON              43.27N  78.83W
02/06/2019  M0.10 INCH       NIAGARA            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0810 AM     FREEZING RAIN    2 NW TONAWANDA          43.00N  78.90W
02/06/2019  M0.00 INCH       ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRACE OF ICING.

0900 AM     FREEZING RAIN    3 WSW ELMA              42.81N  78.68W
02/06/2019  M0.00 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            TRACE OF ICING.

1000 AM     FREEZING RAIN    DUNKIRK AIRPORT         42.49N  79.28W
02/06/2019  M0.09 INCH       CHAUTAUQUA         NY   ASOS

1000 AM     FREEZING RAIN    BUFFALO AIRPORT         42.94N  78.74W
02/06/2019  M0.17 INCH       ERIE               NY   ASOS

1000 AM     FREEZING RAIN    NIAGARA FALLS AIRPORT   43.11N  78.94W
02/06/2019  M0.15 INCH       NIAGARA            NY   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900707
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900708
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900709
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900710
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900711
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900712

JAM
Local storm report, Feb 6, 10:24 AM EST, 4 hours 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1024 AM EST WED FEB 06 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     FREEZING RAIN    ROCHESTER AIRPORT       43.12N  77.68W
02/06/2019  M0.01 INCH       MONROE             NY   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900713

JAM
Local storm report, Feb 6, 12:35 PM EST, 2 hours 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1235 PM EST WED FEB 06 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 AM     FREEZING RAIN    LOCKPORT                43.17N  78.70W
02/06/2019  E0.25 INCH       NIAGARA            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MINOR TREE DAMAGE AND OVER 1,000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT
            POWER DURING PEAK OF OUTAGE.

1157 AM     FREEZING RAIN    2 SSW BLASDELL          42.78N  78.84W
02/06/2019  M0.10 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

1200 PM     FREEZING RAIN    BUFFALO AIRPORT         42.94N  78.74W
02/06/2019  M0.32 INCH       ERIE               NY   ASOS

1200 PM     FREEZING RAIN    ROCHESTER AIRPORT       43.12N  77.68W
02/06/2019  M0.10 INCH       MONROE             NY   ASOS

1200 PM     FREEZING RAIN    NIAGARA FALLS AIRPORT   43.11N  78.94W
02/06/2019  M0.34 INCH       NIAGARA            NY   ASOS

1214 PM     FREEZING RAIN    OSWEGO COUNTY AIRPORT   43.35N  76.39W
02/06/2019  M0.01 INCH       OSWEGO             NY   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900714
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900715
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900716
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900717
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900718
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900719

JAM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 5, 7:51 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningBUFErie17 hr
Feb 6, 12:23 PM ESTFlood WatchBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Livingston and 4 more39 hr
Feb 6, 2:50 PM ESTGale WatchBUF13 hr

Nearby

High Wind Watches in New York, 2019Every high wind watch in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.