Gale Watch 7, NWS Buffalo, NY

655 
WHUS71 KBUF 092117
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
417 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

LEZ040-041-100530-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0009.190310T0400Z-190311T0200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
417 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST THIS EVENING TO
10 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...South to 35 knots.

* WAVES...1 foot or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-100530-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.190309T2117Z-190312T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
417 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-100530-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.190309T2117Z-190312T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
417 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...8 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-100530-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.190310T0400Z-190312T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
417 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...9 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-100530-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.190310T0600Z-190312T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
417 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST SUNDAY TO
2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-100530-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0007.190310T1800Z-190311T1800Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
417 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...Southwest to 35 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$
Reynolds

511 
WHUS71 KBUF 100007
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
707 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

LEZ040-041-100815-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0009.190310T0400Z-190311T0200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
707 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST THIS EVENING TO
10 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WINDS...South to 35 knots.

* WAVES...1 foot or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-100815-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-190312T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
707 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-100815-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-190312T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
707 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...8 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-100815-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.190310T0400Z-190312T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
707 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...9 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-100815-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.190310T0600Z-190312T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
707 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST SUNDAY TO
2 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-100815-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0007.190310T1800Z-190311T1800Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
707 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...Southwest to 35 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

Reynolds

527 
WHUS71 KBUF 100814
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
414 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2019

LOZ062>065-101615-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0007.190310T1800Z-190311T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.GL.W.0009.190310T1800Z-190311T1800Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
414 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
Monday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...Southwest to 35 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-101615-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-190311T0200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
414 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest to 35 knots.

* WAVES...1 foot or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-101615-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-190311T2300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
414 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect until 7 PM EDT Monday.

* WINDS...Southwest to 30 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-101615-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-190311T2300Z/
Lower Niagara River-
414 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect until 7 PM EDT Monday.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-101615-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-190312T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
414 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-101615-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-190312T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
414 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-101615-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-190312T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
414 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...9 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-101615-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0028.000000T0000Z-190312T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
414 AM EDT Sun Mar 10 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest to 30 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
237 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will drift east of the area this afternoon but
continue to provide dry and slightly warmer conditions. A low
pressure system will then track across the central Great Lakes
tonight through Sunday. This system will bring a period of rain to
the region tonight through early Sunday, which will start as a brief
period of wintry mix across portions of the Southern Tier and east
of Lake Ontario. This system will also bring strong winds to the
region later tonight and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery showing clear skies and full sunshine
across the entire region this afternoon, with the first of some
high/thin cirrus moving into Western NY. The full sunshine will
begin to fade behind increasing high clouds across Western NY
later this afternoon. Temperatures will top out in the mid to
upper 30s in most areas.

A sharp mid level trough and associated surface low will move into
the central Great Lakes late tonight and early Sunday before
reaching western Quebec by Sunday evening. A warm front ahead of
this system will cross the region from southwest to northeast
tonight, followed by a strong cold front on Sunday. This system will
bring a myriad of concerns to the area, including mixed precipitation
and high winds.

A strong push of warm advection and isentropic upglide will reach
Western NY late this evening, then overspread the remainder of the
area overnight. The low/mid level warm advection will have some
support from a leading mid level shortwave and increasingly
diffluent flow aloft. Expect precipitation to reach Chautauqua
County first by around 03Z, then spread quickly across the rest of
Western NY by 06Z before reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region by
09Z. Temperatures aloft and in the boundary layer should warm enough
to support just rain across the lower elevation lake plains of
Western NY from Rochester westward, although a few sleet pellets
cannot be ruled out if there is enough evaporational cooling.

Low level cold air will be more difficult to displace across the
interior Southern Tier, and this may allow for a few hours of
freezing rain across the interior Southern Tier, western Finger
Lakes, and points southeast of Lake Ontario. The freezing rain will
end by daybreak Sunday as temperatures warm above freezing, and most
of the precipitation tapers off. East of Lake Ontario, the column is
just a little colder, supporting both sleet and some freezing rain,
and possibly even some snow across Lewis and northeast Jefferson
counties. The wintry mix will continue through late morning Sunday
before temperatures rise above freezing and most of the
precipitation ends. Ice accumulations will be very light, on the
order a few hundredths of an inch. A Winter Weather Advisory has
been issued for the areas noted above for the wintry mix.

Winds will be the other main concern, and will come in two phases. A
very strong 70+ knot low level jet will cross the area tonight and
early Sunday. Forecast soundings show a steep low level inversion
based near the ridge tops and near ridge flow perpendicular to the
Chautauqua Ridge. This will set the stage for a downslope wind event
along the Lake Erie shore as a portion of the low level jet is
ducted down the lee slopes of the Chautauqua Ridge. Wind gusts may
reach 60-65 mph in the favored areas along and just inland from Lake
Erie in Chautauqua and southern Erie counties later tonight. A High
Wind Warning remains in place to cover this.

The same low level jet will cross the eastern Lake Ontario region
late tonight and Sunday morning. This will force downslope winds to
develop off the Tug Hill Plateau, and also allow for terrain
channelled SSE flow down the Black River Valley to near Fort Drum.
The setup looks to be favorable to support gusts in the 55-60 mph
range across eastern Jefferson and central/northern Lewis counties
in the favorable downslope and valley channeling areas. With this in
mind, the Wind Advisory has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning.

The second phase of the event will be a more classic post-frontal
southwest flow event northeast of the lakes. The track of the
surface low is very favorable to our north and west, although the
surface low is no longer deepening, and in fact beginning to fill by
the time it reaches our longitude. Model soundings continue to show
about 55 knots just off the deck behind the cold front for Sunday
afternoon. Cold advection will steepen low level lapse rates
sufficiently to mix a good portion of this down to the surface,
supporting wind gusts of 55-60 mph along and northeast of the Lake
Erie shore from the Niagara Frontier to Rochester. It should be
noted that this event is not as strong as what we saw two weekends
ago, but still likely sufficient to bring down a few trees and
powerlines and result in scattered power outages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The storm system responsible for our forthcoming round of strong
winds will begin to fill while slowly meandering its way across
Quebec Province Sunday night and Monday...while high pressure over
the Northern Plains builds across the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Coupled with the loss of diurnally-driven mixing...the
resultant weakening of the pressure gradient/wind field aloft will
allow the stronger winds to gradually subside to just general windy
conditions from west to east Sunday night...with the latter then
persisting through most of Monday.

Meanwhile the combination of the large-scale cyclonic flow...slow
but steady cold air advection...and orographically-driven ascent
will lead to rain showers east of both lakes changing over to snow
showers Sunday night...with the latter then continuing through
Monday. The best chances for these will lie east of Lake Ontario...
where better moisture may allow for some minor accumulations of a
couple of inches or so across the Tug Hill and western slopes of
the Adirondacks both Sunday night and Monday. Elsewhere accums
should be limited to just a few tenths of an inch or so every
12 hours...with much more scattered activity found east of Lake
Erie. As for temperatures...the steady cold air advection regime
will allow lows to fall back into the upper 20s to mid 30s Sunday
night...with highs on Monday then reaching into the mid to upper
30s for the most part.

Monday night the low will depart into the Canadian Maritimes...
while the aforementioned surface ridge begins building east into
our region. With the low level flow across our region consequently
turning more west-northwesterly and possibly becoming just cold
enough to support some lake effect...any lingering snow showers
should migrate to areas southeast of the lakes...though these
may be largely on the scattered/light side given only very marginal
temperatures aloft. This will especially be the case off Lake Erie...
where the short fetch across the nearly completely frozen over
lake should help keep activity to a minimum. Otherwise the rest
of the region will be mainly dry with just a few flurries...with
lows dropping into the upper teens to mid 20s areawide.

Tuesday and Tuesday evening the aforementioned ridge will build
directly overhead...with attendant drying and warming aloft finally
bringing about the demise of any lingering scattered light snow
showers and flurries. Outside of these dry and quiet weather will
prevail...with highs peaking in the lower to mid 30s on Tuesday...
then nearly ideal conditions for radiational cooling under the
surface ridge allowing for lows to tumble into the mid teens to
lower 20s Tuesday night.

Finally for Wednesday...the surface ridge will slide east and off
the Atlantic coastline. On its backside...a developing return
southerly flow/warm air advection regime will combine with plenty
of sunshine to allow for a quick recovery in temperatures...with
afternoon highs reaching into the lower to mid 40s across the North
Country and eastern Finger Lakes...and into the upper 40s and lower
50s across the rest of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As low pressure over the Central Plain tracks northeast into the
Upper Great Lakes it will bring increasing chances for some rain
showers starting Wednesday night and especially Thursday. Friday,
this low pressure system will tracks off into Canada sending its
associated cold front across the region with additional chances for
showers. It will also turn much colder behind the front with rain
showers changing over to snow showers Friday night into Saturday.
Otherwise, look for highs during this period to average well above
normal with upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure will move into the central Great Lakes late tonight,
then reach western Quebec by Sunday evening. A warm front will move
across our region in advance of the surface low tonight, with rain
spreading from southwest to northeast across the area. The rain will
start as a few hours of freezing rain from the interior Southern
Tier to the western Finger Lakes and points southeast of Lake
Ontario. The North Country will see a mix of sleet, freezing rain,
and snow. CIGS will deteriorate to a mix of MVFR and IFR across
higher terrain once the precipitation begins tonight. Southeast
downslope winds will likely hold the lake plains to VFR through
early Sunday, including all the TAF sites except KJHW.

The steadier precipitation will end from west to east Sunday
morning, leaving just scattered light showers. CIGS on the lake
plains will likely deteriorate to MVFR once the downslope winds
diminish, with lower end MVFR continuing across higher terrain.

There will be strong low level wind shear tonight into Sunday
morning as a strong 70+ knot low level jet crosses the region.
Strong downslope winds will develop at the surface overnight along
the Lake Erie shore near KDKK, and also Sunday east of Lake Ontario
on the north slopes of the Tug Hill including KGTB. Finally, strong
southwest winds will develop northeast of Lake Erie Sunday
afternoon, including KBUF, KIAG, and KROC.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...MVFR in scattered snow showers.
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong low pressure will move across the central Great Lakes Sunday
morning before reaching western Quebec by Sunday evening. Easterly
winds will increase ahead of this system this evening, then become
south late tonight and increase further to 30 knots on Lake Ontario
and 35 knot gales on Lake Erie. Winds will become southwest on
Sunday following the passage of a cold front, with 35 knots on Lake
Erie and 30 knots on Lake Ontario.

Strong westerly winds will continue Sunday night into early Monday
on Lake Ontario as the surface low moves east across Quebec. This
will support at least 30 knots on Lake Ontario, with some potential
for a period of low end gales.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Cold air of recent days has allowed new ice to form on rivers
and creeks. Ice conditions are variable, but there is some thin
ice and shore ice on some of the Buffalo area creeks.

Warmer temperatures are expected this weekend with temperatures
possibly reaching the lower 50s Sunday. The critical thawing
degree hours of 300 may just be met. Snowmelt is expected, as
well as a modest round of rainfall tonight into Sunday
producing a third to a half inch. Even with conditions favorable
to break up the ice, the thin nature of the ice cover will
likely prevent any notable ice jams. Any ice jams that try to
develop will not last long, breaking free and flowing
downstream.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Another round of strong winds will arrive Sunday on the eastern
Great Lakes. Visible satellite imagery today showing widespread,
solid ice cover at the northeast end of the lake with plenty of
ice cover farther west as well. The ice is better developed now
than it was two weekends ago during the previous high wind
event.

Given the better developed ice cover and the marginal nature of
this high wind event, we believe the rise in lake levels at the
northeast end of Lake Erie will not reach thresholds for a
Lakeshore Flood Advisory or Warning. The marginally high winds
and thicker ice will also likely reduce the potential for
additional ice shoves onto shoreline areas.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST to 11 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ006.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight EST tonight to 8 AM EDT
     Sunday for NYZ004-005-013-014.
     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ001>003-010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM EST this evening to 8 AM
     EDT Sunday for NYZ012-020-021.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM EST this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Sunday for NYZ019-085.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM EST this evening to 11 PM EDT Sunday
     for NYZ012.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 PM EST this evening to 10 PM EDT Sunday
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM EST this evening to 2
        PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM EST Sunday to 2 PM EDT
         Tuesday for LOZ045.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EST this evening to 2 PM
         EDT Tuesday for LOZ044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...TMA/Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
157 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

NYZ007-008-101900-
Jefferson-Lewis-
157 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ020-021-101900-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
157 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING TO
8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-010-011-101900-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-
157 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-013-014-101900-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
157 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT TO
8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-101900-
Oswego-
157 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-101900-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
157 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 11 PM
EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-101900-
Wyoming-
157 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
SUNDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING TO
8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-101900-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
157 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EST THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-101900-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
157 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf