Gale Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

330 
WHUS71 KBUF 111459
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
959 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

LOZ042-043-112300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
959 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
TUESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots today becoming east to 
  30 knots tonight. West winds to 35 knots Wednesday and 
  Wednesday night.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet today, 6 to 10 feet tonight and Tuesday. 
  10 to 13 feet Wednesday and Wednesday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-112300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T0600Z-190214T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
959 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...1 foot or less due to extensive ice cover.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-062>065-112300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
959 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...West to 40 knots.

* WAVES...12 to 16 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

632 
WHUS71 KBUF 111724
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1224 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

LOZ062-063-120130-
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0005.190212T1100Z-190213T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1224 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 6 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday.

* WINDS...East winds to 35 knots on Tuesday, then west to 40 
  knots on Wednesday.

* WAVES...12 to 16 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-120130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1224 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
TUESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...Northeast to east winds to 30 knots through Tuesday, 
  then west to 40 knots on Wednesday.

* WAVES...10 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-120130-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T0600Z-190214T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1224 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...1 foot or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-064-065-120130-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1224 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...12 to 16 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

210 
WHUS71 KBUF 112302
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
602 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

LOZ062-063-120715-
/O.EXT.KBUF.GL.W.0005.190212T1100Z-190213T0600Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
602 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...East winds to 35 knots on Tuesday, then west to 40 
  knots on Wednesday.

* WAVES...12 to 16 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ044-120715-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
602 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect until 4 AM EST Wednesday.

* WINDS...Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots through Tuesday
  evening, then west to 40 knots on Wednesday.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet tonight becoming 2 to 4 feet mainly offshore 
  Tuesday and Tuesday night. Waves 12 to 16 feet Wednesday and 
  Wednesday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-120715-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
602 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...Northeast to east winds to 30 knots through Tuesday
  evening, then west to 40 knots on Wednesday.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet tonight and Tuesday. Waves 10 to 13 feet 
  Wednesday and Wednesday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-120715-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T0600Z-190214T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
602 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...1 foot or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ045-064-065-120715-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
602 PM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...12 to 16 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

942 
WHUS71 KBUF 120551
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1251 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

LOZ062-063-121400-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0005.190212T1100Z-190213T0600Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1251 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...East winds to 35 knots on Tuesday, then west to 40 
  knots on Wednesday.

* WAVES...12 to 16 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-121400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1251 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...Northeast to east winds to 30 knots through Tuesday 
  evening, then west to 40 knots on Wednesday.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet tonight and Tuesday. Waves 10 to 13 feet 
  Wednesday and Wednesday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ044-121400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1251 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...Northeast to east winds 15 to 20 knots through Tuesday 
  evening, then west to 40 knots on Wednesday.

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet tonight becoming 2 to 4 feet mainly 
  offshore Tuesday and Tuesday night. Waves 12 to 16 feet 
  Wednesday and Wednesday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-121400-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T0600Z-190214T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1251 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...1 foot or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ045-064-065-121400-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1251 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...12 to 16 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

067 
WHUS71 KBUF 120838
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
338 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

LEZ040-041-121645-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.GL.W.0005.190213T0300Z-190214T0300Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T0600Z-190214T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
338 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory has also been issued. This
Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 10 PM EST this evening.
The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...East winds 15 to 25 knots today and this evening.
  Southwest gales to 40 knots late tonight through Wednesday
  evening. 

* WAVES...1 foot or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062-063-121645-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0005.190212T1100Z-190213T0600Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
338 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...East gales to 35 knots today. Southwest gales to 40
  knots Wednesday and Wednesday evening. 

* WAVES...13 to 17 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-121645-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.190213T0600Z-190214T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
338 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST
Thursday.

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-121645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
338 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...East winds to 30 knots today. Southwest gales to 40 
  knots Wednesday and Wednesday evening. 

* WAVES...10 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ044-121645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
338 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...East winds 15 to 20 knots today. Southwest gales to 35 
  knots Wednesday and Wednesday evening. 

* WAVES...12 to 16 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ045-064-065-121645-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
338 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...West gales to 35 knots.

* WAVES...13 to 17 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

726 
WHUS71 KBUF 121634
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1134 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

LEZ040-041-130045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0005.190213T0300Z-190214T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1134 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest to 40 knots.

* WAVES...1 foot or less.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062-063-130045-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190213T0600Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1134 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...Southwest to 40 knots.

* WAVES...13 to 17 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-130045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
1134 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...Southwest to 40 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ044-130045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1134 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...South to 35 knots.

* WAVES...12 to 16 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-130045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.190213T0600Z-190214T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1134 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO
4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-064-065-130045-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1134 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...13 to 17 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

721 
WHUS71 KBUF 122057
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
357 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

LOZ062-063-130500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.GL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190214T0900Z/
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
357 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Gale
Watch.

* WINDS...Southwest to 40 knots.

* WAVES...13 to 17 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-130500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0900Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.GL.W.0005.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
357 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST
Thursday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...Southwest to 40 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-130500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0900Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.GL.W.0005.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
357 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST
Thursday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...Southwest to 35 knots.

* WAVES...12 to 16 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-064-065-130500-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0004.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.GL.W.0005.190213T1200Z-190214T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
357 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST
Thursday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...13 to 17 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-130500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-190213T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0005.190213T0300Z-190214T0300Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
357 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest to 40 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-130500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.190213T0600Z-190214T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
357 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO
4 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1227 AM EST Mon Feb 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will move southeast across the area tonight with spotty
light snow and very minor accumulations. A stronger storm system
will move into the eastern Great Lakes late Monday night and
Tuesday. This will spread accumulating snow into the area, which
will then change to a wintry mix and even just rain in some areas
later Tuesday before changing back to snow by Wednesday as colder
air moves back into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Radar imagery showing lots of virga still across the area, with a
few pockets of light snow starting to reach the ground now along the
south shore of Lake Ontario and east of Lake Ontario.

Moisture advection will prove just efficient enough to properly
saturate the column with enough depth to translate into a period of
light snow across most of western and north central NY overnight.
Model guidance shows a notable decrease in forecast magnitude and
duration of mid level upward vertical motion across the area. The
short residence time of both greater moisture depth and meaningful
forcing generally 4 to 6 hours will keep accumulation potential
limited to an inch or less for most locations, largely centered
between 2 AM and 6 AM. There may be a brief period of very minor
lake enhancement along the south shore of Lake Ontario late tonight
when 925-850mb flow becomes northeast from Monroe to Niagara
counties, but any enhancement to accumulations will be minimal.

As we get later into the overnight period and into Monday morning
profiles showing mid level moisture decreasing causing a marginal
thermal profile which become less favorable in supporting mid level
ice nucleation, therefore become increasingly susceptible to a
possible mix or switch to supercooled droplets. This may introduce a
window for the potential for some freezing drizzle as moisture
quality only slowly diminishes with time below 5k feet. Any ice
accretion potential likely minimized by the limited overall coverage
and intensity, while also falling on top of freshly fallen snow.
Later shifts will need to monitor how this unfolds.

A break in the precipitation is expected for most of Monday as
moisture in temporarily shunted south of the area as drier air
around high pressure over western Quebec works into the area. This
will allow for some clearing skies, especially for areas east of the
Finger Lakes. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the 20s
to lower 30s across southwestern New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...Winter Storm Warning Issued for the North Country...

During the first 36 hours of this period...the 12z/10 guidance suite
remains in good agreement on ejecting an increasingly negatively
tilted upper level trough northeastward across the Plains States...
Great Lakes...and into the Northeastern States. Meanwhile at the
surface...an attendant initial cutter-type low will steadily deepen
as it tracks from the south-central Plains to the central Great
Lakes Monday night and Tuesday...with the low then passing by a
little to our north and filling Tuesday night as it begins
transferring its energy to a secondary surface cyclone developing
off the New England coastline. This system will be accompanied by
increasingly plentiful moisture and deep forcing for ascent as it
approaches and passes through our region...resulting in light
precipitation initially developing into portions of far western New
York Monday night...before overspreading the remainder of the region
and becoming steadier/heavier on Tuesday...then continuing right on
through Tuesday night.

With respect to precipitation type...our airmass will initially be
cold enough for this to start off as some light snow Monday night
and early Tuesday morning. As we move through Tuesday and Tuesday
evening though...a surge of milder air...first aloft and then at
the surface...will push into western New York out ahead of this
system's trailing cold/occluded front. This will result in the snow
giving way to a wintry mix and eventually a cold rain for the bulk
of the area south of Lake Ontario...where surface temperatures
currently look to climb into the mid to upper 30s later Tuesday
and Tuesday evening. Further to the northeast colder air will hang
tough across the North Country...resulting in the precipitation
primarily remaining in the form of snow through Tuesday evening.

As we push through the second half of Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning the surge of milder air will try to push further northeastward...
but will become increasingly muted and pinched off on both sides as
the cold/occluded front pushes across western New York...and as the
developing secondary surface low off the New England coastline wraps
colder air back into our region from the northeast. The end result
of all this will be rain mixing with and then changing back to snow
across western New York...while mixed precipitation MAY push into
portions of the North Country for a short period (mainly south of
Tug)...before also transitioning back to all snow. Lingering
wraparound moisture...cold air advection...and upsloping behind the
consolidating low will then lead to continued lighter snow through
the second half of Wednesday.

In terms of potential snowfall amounts...at this still-early juncture
it still appears that the best potential for a significant (i.e. warning-
criteria) snowfall will lie across the far eastern Finger Lakes/Eastern
Lake Ontario region and especially the North Country...where the potential
for any mix will be lowest and the briefest...and consequently the precip
should remain in the form of snow the longest...potentially leading
to total snowfall accumulations of 12 to 18 inches over a rough 24
to 36 hour period. Have thus upgraded the Winter Storm Watch for
Jefferson and Lewis counties to a Winter Storm Warning. Elsewhere...
snowfall amounts should decrease with increasing southwestward
extent owing to the progressively earlier arrival of the milder air
and the attendant wintry mix/changeover to rain...though current
projected snowfall amounts and the potential for a wintry mix of
sleet/freezing rain will still likely eventually warrant Winter
Weather Advisories.

As has been pointed out previously...it goes without saying that all
of this remains highly dependent upon the exact track/strength of the
initial primary low and how quickly the transfer of energy to the
secondary coastal system takes place. A more northwesterly track to the
primary low...a stronger primary low...and/or a delayed transfer of
energy to the coastal system would all point to a warmer overall
scenario and less snow areawide...while the opposite conditions would
favor a colder scenario and more snow overall.

One other hazard this system could present may be a couple rounds
of stronger gusty winds. The first of these could come in the form
of strong southeasterly downslope winds along the Lake Erie shoreline
during the day Tuesday...with the NAM/GFS (both of which have a stronger
primary low following a more northwesterly track...and consequently a
stronger associated southeasterly low level jet) currently suggesting
this possibility. The second would be a possible round of stronger
west-southwesterlies/westerlies across western New York following
the passage of the trailing cold/occluded front later Tuesday night
and Wednesday morning...as has been consistently advertised by the GFS
over the past several days. While the potential for both will greatly
depend on the track/strength of the primary low and how quickly it
transfers its energy to the secondary coastal system...at this point
at least some advisory-worthy winds appear a possibility during both
of these time frames...so will add a mention of both to the HWO.

Following the passage of this system...lingering scattered to numerous
snow showers (most numerous downwind of Lake Ontario due to lake
enhancement) will diminish from west to east Wednesday night as high
pressure and drier air build across our region...and as warm air
advection commences aloft. Otherwise drier and quieter conditions
can be expected...with overnight lows settling into the upper teens
to lower 20s.

On Thursday the surface ridge axis will slide off to our east...while
yet another notable southern-stream system pushes into the central
Plains states...thereby placing our region within a broad southwesterly
flow of milder air. This will allow high temperatures to recover back
to above normal fairly quickly...with highs returning to the lower to
mid 30s across the North Country and to around 40 south of Lake Ontario.
Meanwhile the bulk of the day should be dry...with the overall warm
air advection regime/development of a warm frontal boundary possibly
leading to just a few spotty light rain or snow showers along and
north of the I-90 corridor.

Finally...during Thursday night the surface low will make its way
further northeastward into the Upper Midwest. Continued broad warm
air advection well out ahead of this system may support some additional
scattered rain and snow showers across our region...along with milder
(and mainly evening) lows ranging from the mid 20s across the North
Country to the mid 30s across western New York.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
It will be quite unsettled over our forecast area for the bulk of
this period...as a very active southern stream within a split flow
will pound the area with yet ANOTHER significant storm system. In
fact...there could very well be another round of headlines. The
active southern branch of the jet should come as no surprise to
those familiar with ENSO though...as Pacific based storms within
moderate to strong El Nino's often make their away across the
southern half of the country before making the turn to the Great
Lakes or Northeast. There is currently a moderately strong El Nino
in place across the Equatorial Pacific. Now the day to day details.

A deepening cyclone will track northeast across the mid western
states on Friday...with its associated warm frontal boundary
extending across the western counties of our forecast area. While
there is high confidence in this general scenario...the subtlety as
to whether the warm front can actually move past the south shore of
Lake Ontario is still being debated by the various guidance
packages. Why is this important? Temperatures Friday will approach 50
across the Southern Tier in the wake of said front...but there will
be a tight thermal gradient to Lake Ontario...with temperatures near
the south shore and also over the Eastern Lake Ontario region
possibly having trouble climbing out of the 30s. Both the ECMWF and
particularly the GFS operational runs suggest the colder solution
for these areas. This will present the headache of mixed
precipitation... which should be found across the bulk of the region
for at least the early morning. The mix of rain or wet snow could
also include some freezing rain...but from this range...will avoid
complicating an already complex system.

That all being said...mixed precipitation will spread northeast
across our forecast area during the course of Friday. Fairly
widespread rain should be found west of the Finger Lakes and also
for the Thousand Islands region for the afternoon.

The deep storm system will advance to western Lake Erie by Friday
evening where it should begin the process of transferring its energy
to the coast. As we have already seen several times in the past few
weeks...ANOTHER Miller B cyclogenetic event. Watch for closed mid
level storms with a negative tilt for keys to these events...as they
are often more telling than the actual MSLP output. For what its
worth...the ECMWF seems to do very well with these patterns. In this
particular case though...both the ECMWF and GFS based ensembles seem
to be in solid agreement. In fact...the GFS has been locking in on
this solution for the past 3 days. This only adds to the very
confidence in the pops...which will be restrained to just 90 for
better collaboration. Deep lift will be provided by plummeting
heights...a divergent UL flow...and significant forcing from being
under the RR entrance region of a 100kt jet over Quebec. This lift
will be applied to a deep plume of sub tropical moisture...so its
possible that rainfall amounts could exceed a half inch.

By Saturday morning...the transference of energy to the New England
coast should be nearly complete. This will leave a general weakness
in the pressure field over our forecast area where the primary low
would be. While we will lose our deep forcing...there will still be
enough lift from convergence within the mid level trough to support
fairly widespread rain and snow showers that will change to all snow
showers by the afternoon. Given the pressure gradient on the
backside of the sub 980mb secondary low...it should become rather
windy over our area as well.

Saturday night and Sunday...the secondary storm will chug across the
open St Lawrence to eastern Quebec and eventually the Labrador Sea.
A deep cyclonic flow of moist...increasingly cold air will keep the
likelihood of snow showers in place for our forecast area...with
lake enhancement expected southeast of both lakes...especially Lake
Ontario.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pockets of light snow will continue through early Monday morning
across the region with areas of MVFR to IFR VSBY. Some MVFR CIGS
will also develop, mainly across the higher terrain of the western
Southern Tier. The light snow will taper off by mid to late morning
Monday with a return to mainly VFR VSBY. Some MVFR CIGS will
continue, mainly across the higher terrain of the western Southern
Tier.

Dry weather will then continue Monday afternoon through Monday
evening as high pressure over Quebec briefly noses southward into
NY. A storm system moving out of the Midwest States will then
approach the area later Monday night. Snow will develop first across
the western Southern Tier with IFR VSBY developing by 06Z Tuesday.
The snow will overspread the rest of Western NY including KBUF and
KROC after 09Z Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Widespread IFR with snow changing to wintry mix and then
rain.
Wednesday...Areas of IFR with snow likely. Very windy.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds will increase late tonight and Monday as the
pressure gradient tightens between high pressure over Quebec and low
pressure moving into the Upper Midwest. This will bring another
round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to the south shore of Lake
Ontario.

The easterly winds will continue to strengthen Monday night and
Tuesday as the low approaches. This low will cross the eastern Great
Lakes later Tuesday night, with winds becoming southwest Wednesday
with Small Craft advisory conditions continuing. Gales force winds
are possible on Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 10 PM EST Wednesday
     for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for NYZ005-006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 10 PM EST
         Tuesday for LOZ042-043.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/HSK/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR/RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...HSK/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
605 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

NYZ019-085-112300-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
605 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A storm system will bring a wintry mix to the region Monday night
through Wednesday. Initially the precipitation will begin as snow
Monday night and early Tuesday, with several inches accumulating
before mixing with sleet/freezing rain Tuesday, then eventually
turning over to plain rain later Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
precipitation will then change back to all snow late Tuesday night
and Wednesday with a few additional inches of accumulation
possible.

In addition, a couple rounds of stronger winds with gusts to
50 mph will be possible, with the first of these coming Tuesday
and the second later Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>004-010>014-020-021-112300-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
605 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A storm system will bring a wintry mix to the region Monday night
through Wednesday. Initially the precipitation will begin as snow
Monday night and Tuesday morning, with several inches accumulating
before mixing with sleet/freezing rain Tuesday, then eventually
turning over to plain rain later Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
precipitation will then change back to all snow late Tuesday night
and Wednesday with a few additional inches of accumulation possible.

In addition, a round of strong winds with gusts to 50 mph will be
possible later Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-006-112300-
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
605 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-112300-
Jefferson-Lewis-
605 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 10 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-112300-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
605 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale force winds will be possible later Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-112300-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
605 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale force winds will be possible from early Wednesday morning
through at least Wednesday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-112300-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
605 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf