Gale Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

996 
WHUS71 KBUF 290239
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
939 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

LOZ042-291045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-190130T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
939 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...Northeast 20 to 25 knots through tonight. Southwest to 
  35 knots Tuesday through Thursday afternoon.

* WAVES...8 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ043-291045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-190130T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
939 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...East 20 to 25 knots becoming southeast through tonight.
  Southwest to 35 knots Tuesday through Thursday.

* WAVES...8 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ044-291045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-190130T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
939 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...Southeast 20 to 25 knots becoming south through Tuesday
  morning. Southwest to 35 knots Tuesday afternoon through
  Thursday afternoon.

* WAVES...11 to 15 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LOZ045-291045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0013.190129T0700Z-190130T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
939 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO
10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...Southeast becoming south 20 to 25 knots through Tuesday
  morning. Southwest to 30 knots Tuesday afternoon through
  Thursday afternoon.

* WAVES...10 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-291045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-190201T1100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
939 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest to 30 knots.

* WAVES...7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-291045-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0002.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
939 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West to 40 knots.

* WAVES...12 to 16 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased, but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

947 
WHUS71 KBUF 290843
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
343 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

LOZ042-291645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-190130T1500Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0003.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
343 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST
Thursday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...Southwest to 35 knots.

* WAVES...9 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-291645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-190130T1500Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0003.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
343 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST
Thursday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...Southwest to 35 knots.

* WAVES...9 to 12 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-291645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-190130T1500Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0003.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
343 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST
Thursday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...Southwest to 35 knots.

* WAVES...11 to 15 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-291645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-190130T1500Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0003.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
343 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST
Thursday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...Southwest to 35 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-291645-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-190130T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0003.190130T0800Z-190131T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
343 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 3 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST
Thursday.

* WINDS...Southwest to 40 knots.

* WAVES...8 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062>065-291645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0002.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0003.190130T1500Z-190131T2300Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
343 AM EST Tue Jan 29 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 6 PM EST
Thursday. The Gale Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...West to 40 knots.

* WAVES...13 to 17 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
120 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring a brief period of mainly dry weather
today. Low pressure will move across the region tonight through
Tuesday with a few periods of snow, especially east of Lake
Ontario where more significant accumulations are expected.
Following this system, a bitterly cold airmass will move into
the region with dangerously low wind chills. Locally heavy lake
effect snow will also develop east and northeast of Lakes Erie
and Ontario with significant accumulations and severe blowing
and drifting snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid-level clouds will continue to thicken this afternoon as the
next system approaches. Radar imagery is now showing moisture
moving across the Niagara Pennsiula headed for western NY. Much
of this is virga and will not reach the ground. Dry air in the
low-levels will keep light snow from moving into the region
until late this afternoon and early this evening. Wouldn't rule
out scattered flurries through the afternoon. Highs will reach
the low to mid 20s in most areas, with teens east of Lake
Ontario and even single digits near the Saint Lawrence.

Tonight surface low pressure will move across southern Lower
Michigan to Lake Huron. Large scale forcing will increase from west
to east with the approach of the upper level trough and associated
DPVA. The initial precipitation tonight will be driven by warm
advection and moisture convergence on the nose of a strong low level
jet this evening. Expect areas of light snow to develop in response
to this, first across Western NY and then across the eastern Lake
Ontario region by around midnight. The better coverage of this warm
advection snow will be found near Lake Ontario where forcing is
maximized. By late tonight the associated cold front will arrive in
Western NY, supporting a few more areas of light snow.

By late tonight and early Tuesday morning the advancing front and
leading edge of the trough will reach the eastern Lake Ontario
region, while a weak baroclinic wave begins to develop on the front.
This will increase frontogenesis to the east of Lake Ontario, with
coverage of snow becoming more widespread. Southerly upslope flow
will also develop across the southern end of the Tug Hill later
tonight, enhancing snowfall locally.

For most areas expect just an inch or two of accumulation tonight,
even less in the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes due to
downslope flow. Snowfall will be greater east of Lake Ontario, with
2-4 inches possible by daybreak Tuesday, and more to come
thereafter. More on that in the short term section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
...Severe winter conditons expected during this period...

On Tuesday, an occluding area of low pressure centered over James
Bay in the morning will shift north into Quebec, and in the process
its trailing cold front will cross the area through the morning.
This will bring the potential for a band of light to moderate snow
and gusty winds as it crosses the area. As the cold front tracks
east, a secondary area of low pressure will track north along the
front boundary. This second area of low pressure will center over
Eastern NY by the late afternoon. This area of low pressure will
bring increased moisture northward and cause additional snow to
overspread the eastern portion of the forecast area, especially from
the Finger Lakes area eastward. Model guidance still has some spread
for how long the western fringe of the secondary system will stay
over the Eastern Lake Ontario area, with the ECMWF holding the
precipitation shield farther west for longer, which would result in
increased snow amounts. The NAM and GFS pull the precip eastward
quicker, with the GFS being the middle ground for the three models.
Areas east of Lake Ontario can expect three inches or more of
snowfall for the day on Tuesday, with 4 to 8 inches possible over
the higher terrain of the Tug Hill. Farther west across Western NY
to the Northern Finger Lakes, the widespread snowfall on Tuesday
will primarily result from the cold front moving through during the
morning. The lower snow amounts will be along the south shore of Lake
Ontario where around an inch or so is expected. Snow amounts
increase southward toward the NY/PA border where 2 to 3 inches is
possible across the higher terrain. Additional snowfall will also
occur northeast of Lake Erie as lake effect snow begins to develop
Tuesday afternoon as cold air advection increases through the day.
This area can expect up to four inches of snow through the early
evening between lake effect snow and the earlier snowfall with the
frontal passage.

A potentially significant lake effect event off of Lake Erie will
start Tuesday afternoon, with the potential for more than a foot of
snow accumulation. Behind the passing cold front from Tuesday
morning, cold air advection will begin across the area, this as a
strong polar low tracks from the Upper Midwest to the Western Great
Lakes by Tuesday evening. Cyclonic flow will continue over the
region as the strong polar low tracks closer to the area. This will
result in winds remaining mostly out of the southwest, and combined
with the cold air advection over the area behind the cold front, the
potential for lake effect will increase northeast of Lake Erie. 850
temperatures will drop from early morning values of around
-5C to near -15C by the afternoon, causing increasing lake induced
equilibrium heights and increased instability off of Lake Erie. A
band of light to moderate lake effect snow should start to take
shape by the early to mid afternoon on Tuesday off of Lake Erie.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be warmest earlier in the day ahead of
the passing cold front when highs are expected to be in the low 30s
for most area, except in the Northern Finger Lakes and Genesee
Valley, where temperatures may briefly reach the mid 30s. Behind the
cold front, temperatures will drop to the low 20s across WNY by the
early afternoon. This drop in temperatures will continue from west
to east through the evening.

Tuesday night, will mark the beginning of a potentially significant
lake effect event off of Lake Ontario with feet of snow possible.
850 temperatures will drop to near -25C across WNY and to -21C east
of Lake Ontario by Wednesday morning. East of Lake Ontario, the
general widespread snowfall from the area of low pressure to the
east, will taper off through the late evening, and transition to
lake enhanced snow. Snow will transition to lake effect off of Lake
Ontario through the early morning on Wednesday, and with a southwest
wind, will focus the band northeast of the lake. Lake effect snow
will continue northeast of Lake Erie as cold air advection continues
into the area. Lake induced equilibrium levels off of Lake Erie are
expected to reach around 12kft or greater Tuesday night, resulting
in the potential for heavy lake effect snow. Winds funneling down
Lake Erie from between 240-250 degrees will continue to put the lake
effect band northeast of the lake. Lows Tuesday night will be in the
single digits across the entire area, except for some areas of the
Western Southern Tier will be a few degrees below zero.

Wednesday morning, ongoing lake effect snow off of both lakes will
continue through the day. Lake effect off of both lakes will start
out the day northeast of the lakes, and slowly expand/shift
southward through the day. An area of low pressure will track north
of Lake Ontario and into Quebec through the morning on Wednesday. A
cold front associated with the area of low pressure will cross the
area Wednesday morning bringing a reinforcing slug of cold air;
associated with the polar low that will be centered over the Central
Great Lakes on Wednesday morning. This reinforcing cold air
advection will bring 850 temperatures down to near -30C by Wednesday
afternoon. With this additional cold air advection coming to the
region, guidance is suggesting lake induced equilibrium levels of up
to 15kft off of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario during the day on
Wednesday. Outside of the lake effect, some areas of snow showers
will be possible as the cold front moves through. A tightening
pressure gradient between the polar low that will track northeast
through the day and high pressure over the Mississippi Valley, will
cause windy conditions, especially closer to the lake shores late
Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring increased chances for
blowing snow and bitterly cold wind chills and blizzard conditions.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be in the single digits for all
areas, with a few location in the Western Southern Tier having
temperatures a few degrees below zero.

Wednesday night, lake effect snow will continue northeast of the
lakes, only dropping south some from where the bands were earlier in
the day. Lake effect will be heaviest off of Lake Ontario, where a
slightly better fetch off the lake will be located. Continued 850
temperatures of around -25C will be plenty cold enough to continue
to support the lake effect snow. Strong winds will continue to cause
blowing and drifting snow, with near blizzard conditions and
bitterly cold temperatures possible through Wednesday night. Lows
Wednesday night will be at or below zero for all areas. Areas of the
the Western Southern Tier and the North Country will be around -10
for lows. Areas closer to the lakes will be around -5 degrees ,
except the immediate lake shores, where temperatures will be near
zero.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Potentially heavy lake effect snow continuing into Friday east of
the lakes. 850 mb temperatures are -20C or colder during this time,
with decent synoptic moisture in the 850-700 mb layer. The only
thing that will complicate things will be the growing ice coverage
on Lake Erie, this will not be a concern on Lake Ontario.

Beyond Friday, a sharp warmup is now being signaled by both the GFS
and Euro by the end of the weekend. The warmup will start Saturday
as the polar low continues to retreat northward with
temperatures getting a bit closer to normal.

Sunday could see a brief return of temperatures going above
normal, as a warm front associated with a surface low lifting
through the upper Great Lakes moves through the area. How much
above normal remains to be seen, but there is some potential
for a good part of the area to see temperatures well into the
40s. Increasing chances of precipitation within the warm air
advection could potentially be all rain for much of the area.
This brief warmup will need to be monitored for potential
hydrologic impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR will prevail for the bulk of the area today. Otherwise mid
level clouds will thicken and lower today ahead of the next
system.

Low pressure will move into the central Great Lakes tonight. Some
light snow will develop across Western NY by around 00Z Tuesday in
the warm advection ahead of the system with areas of IFR VSBY
developing. Areas of light snow will continue tonight with areas of
MVFR to IFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS, although coverage will be somewhat
spotty.

Low level wind shear will develop tonight as a strong low level jet
crosses the region.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Areas of IFR in snow.
Wednesday through Friday...Areas of IFR with lake effect snow and
blowing snow northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will move into the central Great Lakes tonight.
Northeast winds will increase on Lake Ontario later today ahead of
the system, then become more southeast later tonight. This will
bring a round of Small Craft Advisory conditions. Strong southeast
winds will also develop on Lake Erie tonight as downslope flow
develops off the higher terrain just inland from the lake.

The low will track into northern Ontario and western Quebec Tuesday,
where it will remain through Thursday. This will bring an extended
period of high end Small Craft Advisory conditions to both lakes
Erie and Ontario. The strongest winds are likely to occur Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night, with gales possible during this time
frame. Heavy freezing spray will also develop given the very cold
temperatures.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There also is an ice jam on Buffalo Creek in Gardenville. This
ice jam likely formed due to the combination of small chunks of
ice in the creek and recent heavy snow which caused these to
freeze in place near the gauge location. Although the creek
level is high right at the gauge location, this reading is not
representative for the creek as a whole. Flows are not high and
there has not been any flooding reported as a result of the ice
jam. The situation will be monitored, but with flows falling
during the next couple days, this jam is not expected to result
in flooding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from 10 PM EST this evening through Friday
     morning for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NYZ010>012-085.
     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NYZ019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
         Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
         LOZ045.
         Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
         Tuesday for LOZ044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/HSK
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/HSK
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...Hitchcock/HSK
MARINE...Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock/Apffel/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
229 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

NYZ019-020-291930-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
229 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Watch.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-011-291930-
Northern Erie-Genesee-
229 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-085-291930-
Wyoming-Southern Erie-
229 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-013-021-291930-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Livingston-Allegany-
229 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-014-291930-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario-
229 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-291930-
Jefferson-Lewis-
229 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

Dangerously cold wind chills are possible Wednesday through Thursday
as a bitterly cold arctic airmass combines with strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-291930-
Oswego-
229 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.
   Wind Chill Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-291930-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
229 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A deepening area of low pressure will remain to the north of Lake
Ontario midweek with a strengthening pressure gradient that may
bring gale force winds to the Lakes Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-291930-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
229 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-291930-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
229 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
919 AM EST MON JAN 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     SNOW             PERRYSBURG              42.46N  79.00W
01/27/2019  M4.0 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 PM     SNOW             LOCKPORT                43.17N  78.67W
01/27/2019  M3.5 INCH        NIAGARA            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 PM     SNOW             SPRINGVILLE             42.55N  78.58W
01/27/2019  M7.2 INCH        ERIE               NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0400 AM     SNOW             1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE     43.58N  75.45W
01/28/2019  M5.0 INCH        LEWIS              NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0600 AM     SNOW             PULASKI                 43.57N  76.12W
01/28/2019  M9.0 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0600 AM     SNOW             5 ESE OSWEGO            43.44N  76.41W
01/28/2019  M4.8 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 ESE NORTH BOSTON      42.65N  78.70W
01/28/2019  M11.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             LOWVILLE                43.80N  75.48W
01/28/2019  M4.5 INCH        LEWIS              NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 SW DUNKIRK            42.47N  79.33W
01/28/2019  M5.4 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 W WYOMING             42.82N  78.15W
01/28/2019  M4.4 INCH        WYOMING            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             4 SSE LACONA            43.60N  76.04W
01/28/2019  M7.7 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 E OSCEOLA             43.50N  75.70W
01/28/2019  M3.5 INCH        LEWIS              NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             PERRYSBURG              42.46N  79.00W
01/28/2019  M13.2 INCH       CATTARAUGUS        NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             8 N REDFIELD            43.64N  75.88W
01/28/2019  M3.6 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 W WYOMING             42.82N  78.15W
01/28/2019  M4.4 INCH        WYOMING            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 S DUNKIRK             42.47N  79.33W
01/28/2019  M5.4 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NE PULASKI            43.57N  76.12W
01/28/2019  M9.0 INCH        OSWEGO             NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0730 AM     SNOW             SILVER CREEK            42.53N  79.16W
01/28/2019  M5.5 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0730 AM     SNOW             1 W COLDEN              42.65N  78.71W
01/28/2019  M10.7 INCH       ERIE               NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900534
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900535
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900536
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900537
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900538
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900539
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900540
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900541
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900542
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900543
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900544
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900545
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900546
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900547
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900548
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900549
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900550
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900551
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900552

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
113 PM EST MON JAN 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     SNOW             7 SW ATTICA             42.80N  78.39W
01/28/2019  M8.8 INCH        WYOMING            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             ENE EAST AURORA         42.77N  78.62W
01/28/2019  M5.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             WALES                   42.74N  78.51W
01/28/2019  M5.3 INCH        ERIE               NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0745 AM     SNOW             2 SSE EAST AURORA       42.73N  78.61W
01/28/2019  M7.4 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SW FORESTVILLE        42.45N  79.20W
01/28/2019  M8.0 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 ENE COLDEN            42.65N  78.61W
01/28/2019  M8.1 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 SE GLENWOOD           42.60N  78.64W
01/28/2019  M5.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0830 AM     SNOW             2 NE BOSTON             42.65N  78.72W
01/28/2019  M12.5 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900553
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900554
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900555
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900556
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900557
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900558
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900559
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900560

DPK