Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

178 
WWUS41 KBOX 012046
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
346 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019


MAZ017>021-020500-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0005.190302T0600Z-190303T0000Z/
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Including the cities of Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Fall River, 
New Bedford, and Mattapoisett
346 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to
  8 inches expected.

* WHERE...Northern Bristol MA, Western Plymouth MA, Eastern 
  Plymouth MA, Southern Bristol MA and Southern Plymouth MA 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow falls from 4 am through 
  noon Saturday at 1 inch per hour at times. Hazardous travel 
  expected and the wet snow may result in isolated to scattered 
  power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ004>007-009>016-022-023-026-RIZ001>008-020500-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0016.190302T0600Z-190303T0000Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Barre, Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, 
Lawrence, Gloucester, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, 
Springfield, Milford, Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, 
Boston, Quincy, Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven, 
Ayer, Foster, Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich, 
East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett, 
Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
346 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 
  inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut as well as southwest, 
  central and northeast Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow expected between 4 am and 
  noon on Saturday. Highest amounts are expected in Rhode Island 
  where the wet snow may result in isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

787 
WWUS41 KBOX 020909
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
409 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

MAZ017-018-021715-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0005.190304T0000Z-190304T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190303T0000Z/
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Including the cities of Taunton and Brockton
409 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected today with accumulations of 4 
  to 8 inches. Heavy snow forecast for Sunday evening through 
  Monday morning with additional snow accumulations of around 5 to
  7 inches. 

* WHERE...Northern Bristol and Western Plymouth MA Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 7 PM this evening. 
  For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday evening through Monday 
  morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow falls through noon today with
  the possibility of 1 inch per hour at times. Hazardous travel 
  expected and the wet snow may result in isolated to scattered 
  power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

MAZ019>021-021715-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190303T0000Z/
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Including the cities of Plymouth, Fall River, New Bedford, 
and Mattapoisett
409 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to
  8 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Plymouth, Southern Bristol and Southern 
  Plymouth MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow falls through noon today with
  the possibility of 1 inch per hour at times. Hazardous travel
  expected and the wet snow may result in isolated to scattered
  power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MAZ007-013>016-RIZ002>004-021715-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0005.190304T0000Z-190304T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190303T0000Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Southeast Providence RI-
Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Including the cities of Gloucester, Foxborough, Norwood, 
Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich, 
East Greenwich, Warwick, and West Warwick
409 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow expected today with accumulations of 2 to 5 inches.
  Heavy snow forecast for Sunday evening through Monday morning
  with additional snow accumulations of around 5 to 7 inches. 

* WHERE...Portions of eastern and northeastern Massachusetts and 
  northern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 7 PM this evening. 
  For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday evening through Monday 
  morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow expected through noon today.
  Highest amounts are expected in Rhode Island where the wet snow
  may result in isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ004>006-009>012-026-RIZ001-021715-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0005.190304T0000Z-190304T1500Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190303T0000Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Barre, Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, 
Lawrence, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford, 
Worcester, Ayer, Foster, and Smithfield
409 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... 

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow expected today with accumulations of 2 to 5 inches.
  Heavy snow forecast for Sunday evening through Monday morning
  with additional snow accumulations of around 6 to 8 inches. 

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern, 
  northeastern and western Massachusetts and northern Rhode 
  Island.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 7 PM this evening. 
  For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday evening through Monday 
  morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow expected through noon today.
  Highest amounts are expected in Rhode Island where the wet snow
  may result in isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

MAZ022-023-RIZ005>008-021715-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190303T0000Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
Vineyard Haven, Bristol, Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, 
and New Shoreham
409 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as 
  high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeastern Massachusetts and northern 
  and southern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow expected through noon today.
  Wet snow may result in isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

&&

$$

MAZ002-003-008-021715-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0005.190304T0000Z-190304T1500Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, 
and Chesterfield
409 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 
  11 inches possible.

* WHERE...Western and Eastern Franklin as well as Hampshire MA 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

548 
WWUS41 KBOX 021200
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
700 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

MAZ017-018-022000-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190303T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190303T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0005.190304T0000Z-190304T1500Z/
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Including the cities of Taunton and Brockton
700 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Wet Snow Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches today.
 

* WHERE...Northern Bristol MA and Western Plymouth MA Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 7 PM EST this
  evening. Heavy snow forecast for Sunday evening through Monday
  morning with additional snow accumulations of around 5 to 7
  inches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow falls through 1 PM this
  afternoon with the possibility of 1 inch per hour at times.
  Hazardous travel expected and the wet snow may result in
  isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

MAZ019>021-022000-
/O.CAN.KBOX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-190303T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190303T0000Z/
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Including the cities of Plymouth, Fall River, New Bedford, 
and Mattapoisett
700 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Eastern Plymouth MA, Southern Bristol MA and Southern 
  Plymouth MA Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow expected through 1 PM this
  afternoon with the possibility of 1 inch per hour at times. The
  wet snow may result in isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

&&

$$

MAZ007-013>016-RIZ002>004-022000-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190303T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0005.190304T0000Z-190304T1500Z/
Eastern Essex MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Southeast Providence RI-
Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Including the cities of Gloucester, Foxborough, Norwood, 
Cambridge, Boston, Quincy, Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich, 
East Greenwich, Warwick, and West Warwick
700 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow today with accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Heavy 
  snow forecast for Sunday evening through Monday morning with 
  additional snow accumulations of around 5 to 7 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of eastern and northeastern Massachusetts and 
  northern Rhode Island.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 7 PM this evening. 
  For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday evening through Monday 
  morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow expected through 1 PM this
  afternoon. Isolated power outages possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

CTZ002>004-MAZ004>006-009>012-026-RIZ001-022000-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190303T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0005.190304T0000Z-190304T1500Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, 
Putnam, Willimantic, Barre, Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, 
Lawrence, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield, Milford, 
Worcester, Ayer, Foster, and Smithfield
700 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow expected today with accumulations of 2 to 3 inches
  except up to 4 inches in northern Rhode Island. Heavy snow 
  forecast for Sunday evening through Monday morning with 
  additional snow accumulations of around 7 to 10 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Connecticut, central, eastern, 
  northeastern and western Massachusetts and northern Rhode 
  Island.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until 7 PM this evening. 
  For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday evening through Monday 
  morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...An isolated power outage still possible in
  northern Rhode Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

MAZ022-023-RIZ005>008-022000-
/O.CON.KBOX.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-190303T0000Z/
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, 
Vineyard Haven, Bristol, Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, 
and New Shoreham
700 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Accumulations of 1 to 3 inches except 2 to 5 inches
  possible near Provincetown. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southeastern Massachusetts and southern 
  Rhode Island.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow expected through 1 PM this
  afternoon. Wet snow may result in isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

&&

$$

MAZ002-003-008-022000-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0005.190304T0000Z-190304T1500Z/
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Including the cities of Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, 
and Chesterfield
700 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 
  11 inches possible.

* WHERE...Western and Eastern Franklin as well as Hampshire MA 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1247 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, dry weather through today. Coastal storm tonight
into Saturday with mostly snow, a wintry mix with rain along the
south coast of New England. Some blustery northeast winds as
well. A second storm passes just offshore on Sunday night and
Monday morning, bringing a period of snow, but becoming a mix
with rain in the coastal plain. Colder than normal air pours in
for much of the coming week, but high pressure will bring dry
weather through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM update...

High pressure passing by to our N/NE and was cetered between
Main and Halifax as of midday. This high pressure will keep
our area dry for the remainder of this afternoon.

Satellite shows a mix of clouds and sun, with most sunshine
across northern MA, and some stratocu and altostratus in centrla
and southern portions of the area. This will likely continue
thru the remainder of this afternoon.

Light to near calm winds are expected to become southerly, and with
the sunshine we continue to look on track for highs in the 30s.
Some localized light sea breezes developing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Fast-moving, open-wave preference with low-mid level focus primarily
within an anti-cyclonic branch of a warm-moist conveyor belt beneath
support aloft brought via H3 right-rear-quadrant jet streak. Thus,
greater weighting towards NAM / WRF solutions, some blending with EC.
Why? Feel both the present upper OH River Valley and N Gulf impulse
energy are slightly faster than global guidance has initialized.
Also, the NW Atlantic remains wide open. While trends have a slower
N Gulf impulse intercepted by E-Rockies lee cyclogenesis in vicinity
of S New England, have lower confidence of slower, storm maturation
given the synoptic pattern as of late. Again, preference to faster
solutions, focus within the front-end thump however some back-peeling
N/W of the precip-shield brought about via the neighboring H3 RRQ jet
streak and lowering H5 heights / troughing parent with additional up-
stream Pacific energy out of the Great Lakes.

Non-GFS, keep the storm at or outside of the 40N / 70W benchmark on
Saturday. NAM / WRF / EC solution preference. A slower, inside the
benchmark solution just doesn't feel right given recent synoptics.
Not favoring a deeper grasp on the N Gulf impulse, trowaling moisture
back and further N that would net higher snowfall amounts as the GFS
suggests. Not like the GFS solution is being ignored, just not being
weighted with this forecast. It's certainly not out of the realm of
possibility.

So, altogether, when taking marginal thermal fields as is exhibited
by forecast model thicknesses yielding a wintry mix and/or heavier,
wet snow closer to the coast, out across the Cape and Islands, with
lower snow to liquid ratios as a result, have generally a 3 to 6"
event over RI and Southeast MA, up into the Boston-metro, while 1 to
3" over the Cape and Islands, as well as N/W of the 3 to 6" swath,
while northwest MA sees a coating up to 1". WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
posted over portions of E/SE MA where confidence is highest of 3
to 6" amounts. This region coinciding with colder air and H9-7
frontogenesis / deformation N/E of the coastal low.

Other things that come to mind: Will there be accumulation issues
with a heavier, wet snow? Perhaps with marginal lapse rates and 2m
temperatures around freezing during the daytime? Any issues with
heavy, wet snow on tree limbs especially as we approach 6-inches?
Think once we gain more confidence on snowfall amounts that we can
answer these questions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Big Picture...

Closed upper low over Northern Ontario merges with a shortwave
diving south from the Canadian Arctic. This digs a broad trough over
the Eastern and Central USA with axis over the Western Great
Lakes/Miss Rvr Valley. This trough then shifts east over New
England/Eastern USA midweek. The digging of the trough this weekend
turns the upper flow over New England from the southwest,
potentially drawing greater atmospheric moisture north up the coast.

There are several shortwaves in this broad cyclonic flow. One is
over us Saturday evening and shifts northeast into the Maritimes Sat
night. Another moves up the southwest flow from the Ohio Valley
Sunday night/Monday. Additional shortwaves Tuesday night/Wednesday
seen associated with the passage of the broader trough axis.  This
supports the concept of a departing storm Saturday night, another
storm Sunday night/Monday morning, and dry weather Monday afternoon
through Thursday.

Height contours at 500 mb remain near seasonal normals, 542 to 546
Dm, through Monday morning, then become lower than normal for much
of the week. There are signs of moderation Thursday. Thermal fields
at 850 mb show a similar cool off Monday afternoon that lingers
through Thursday.

Model upper-level mass fields show general agreement through Monday.
All then agree on the broad trough over the Eastern USA after than,
but show increasing differences in the behavior of associated
shortwaves through midweek. More significant differences in the sea-
level pressure fields with the Sunday night storm, with noticeable
impact on the forecast as well as forecast confidence.

Concerns...

Saturday night-Sunday.

Upper shortwave and associated cold temperatures aloft over the
region 00Z-06Z and low level north-northeast flow during that same
time will maintain some scattered light snow/flurries before
midnight. But the trend will be for an end to the snow with partial
clearing overnight.

Northern and southern stream upper jets merge to our west Sunday
afternoon/evening, generating mid and high clouds that will
overspread our area during that time. The positioning of the jets
may generate some lift in Western New England late Sunday, but most
of this remains upstream through 00Z and low level winds suggest
that source of forcing is also upstream through 00Z.

Sunday night-Monday...

Shortwave and primary surface low move up from the Wester Gulf of
Mexico via the Southeast USA. Strong upper jet sets up over New
England with a 165-knot core and Srn New England under the right
entrance region. This suggests favorable lift for precip generation.
the storm moves past our area Monday morning around 12Z and off to
the east by afternoon. There is agreement among the models with
this. But they disagree with the placement of the surface low as it
passes us Monday morning. the GFS takes the surface center outside
of the benchmark, the GGEM is either over or just inside the
benchmark, and the ECMWF is along the Long Island/Srn New England
coast. The ECMWF track has shifted a little farther south toward the
other models. So we are fairly confident there will be a snow storm
Sunday night but with uncertainty as to how far north...if at
all...that the rain/snow change line will reach. Depending on how
the thermal fields set up, there could also be a zone of
sleet/freezing rain mixing in at the changeover. The current
forecast uses a blend of models and attempts to go a little colder
than the ECMWF solution. This brings snow or a snow/sleet mix to the
interior and snow mixing/changing to rain along the coastal plain.
There is potential for several inches of snow with this system.

Westerly winds move in behind the surface low Monday afternoon. The
upper shortwave moves across during 18Z-00Z. Colder air then moves
in.

Confidence in precipitation occurring is high. Confidence in
placement of the changeover line is low.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Upper trough slowly moves over the region with cold pool clouds
likely. The best chance for clouds will be Wednesday as the trough
axis and coldest temps aloft move overhead. Otherwise dry and cold
as surface high pressure builds overhead by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...High confidence.

This afternoon...VFR. Mid-high deck clouds cover lingers over
northern CT into SE MA, with SCT-BKN mid cloud deck this
afternoon as light and variable winds become S. Localized weak
sea breeze development.

Tonight into Saturday...
SN spreading across the terminals. Wintry mix with some RA/IP
mixing in at times along the immediate S-coast/Cape/Islands.
MVFR-LIFR impacts, especially with SN, to both CIG and VSBY. S
winds shifting E, increasing gradually out of the NE into
Saturday with 10 to 20 sustained along E/SE New England, gusts
up to 30 kts. Height of winds around the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...
SN moving in closer to 10z Saturday, exiting later Sat afternoon.
Expect reductions in both CIGs and VSBYs as SN accumulates on
runways anywhere around 3 to 6 inches.

KBDL Terminal...
VFR thru this evening. Then SN returns close to 9-10z Saturday
persisting as late as 17z. Looking at accumulations on runways
of 2 to 5 inches with the latest forecast.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SN.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
local gusts up to 30 kt. SN likely, RA, chance FZRA.

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up
to 30 kt. Chance SN, chance RA, chance FZRA.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/...High confidence.

High pressure builds E allowing light N winds to turn S. Will
see E winds increase overnight into Saturday as a coastal low
passes just offshore, at or slightly outside the 40N / 70W
benchmark. Height of the winds around 18z Saturday with 15 to 25
kt sustained NE, gusts up to near gale force. This will push
seas upwards around 5 to 8 feet. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES posted
for tonight into Saturday.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Slight chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain, snow.
Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain,
chance of snow. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     MAZ004>007-009>023-026.
RI...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ232>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ231-
     250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...NMB
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/Sipprell/NMB
MARINE...WTB/Sipprell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
335 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

MAZ002>012-014-026-020845-
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-
335 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Massachusetts,
eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts and western
Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Snow will develop late tonight and produce an inch of accumulation
by morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday...

Several inches of snow accumulation are possible, with the greatest
across the metro Boston area. The snow may mix with rain and sleet
along the immediate coast. The location of the axis of heaviest
snowfall may still change.

Late Sunday into early Monday...

A stronger storm will bring the potential for significant snow
accumulation, with the greatest risk across the interior, north and
west of the Boston to Providence corridor. Snow may max with sleet or
change to rain in the coastal plain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ015-020845-
Suffolk MA-
335 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Late Sunday into early Monday...

A stronger storm will bring the potential for significant snow
accumulation, with the greatest risk across the interior, north and
west of the Boston to Providence corridor. Snow may mix with sleet or
change to rain in the coastal plain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

CTZ002>004-MAZ020>024-RIZ001>008-020845-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
335 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut,
southeastern Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Snow will develop tonight and may mix with sleet overnight. Snow
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible by morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday...

Several inches of snow accumulation are possible, with the greatest
risk across RI and southeast MA. The snow may mix with rain and
sleet along the immediate coast and Cape/Islands. The axis of
heaviest snowfall may still change.

Late Sunday into early Monday...

A stronger storm will bring the potential for significant snow
accumulation, with the greatest risk across the interior, north and
west of the Boston to Providence corridor. Snow may mix with sleet or
change to rain in the coastal plain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MAZ013-016>019-020845-
Western Norfolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
335 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Massachusetts and
southeastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Late Sunday into early Monday...

A stronger storm will bring the potential for significant snow
accumulation, with the greatest risk across the interior, north and
west of the Boston to Providence corridor. Snow may mix with sleet or
change to rain in the coastal plain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-020845-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
335 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates, please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

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