Gale Warning 15, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

598 
WHUS71 KBOX 040452
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1152 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

ANZ232-254>256-041300-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0015.190304T0900Z-190304T1800Z/
Nantucket Sound-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
1152 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northerly winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  40 kt. Seas 6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-041300-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-190305T0000Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
1152 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northerly winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233>237-041300-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0035.190304T0600Z-190304T1800Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-
Block Island Sound-
1152 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northerly winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt.
  Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-251-041300-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-190305T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
1152 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northerly winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

016 
WHUS71 KBOX 040829
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
329 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

ANZ232-254>256-041630-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0015.190304T0900Z-190304T1800Z/
Nantucket Sound-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
329 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northerly winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  40 kt. Seas 6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-041630-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-190305T0000Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
329 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northerly winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233>237-041630-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-190304T1800Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-
Block Island Sound-
329 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northerly winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-251-041630-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-190305T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
329 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northerly winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

612 
WHUS71 KBOX 041516
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1016 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

ANZ232-254>256-041800-
/O.CON.KBOX.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190304T1800Z/
Nantucket Sound-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
1016 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-042330-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-190305T0000Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
1016 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233>237-041800-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-190304T1800Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-
Block Island Sound-
1016 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-251-042330-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-190305T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
1016 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

496 
WHUS71 KBOX 041809
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
109 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

ANZ232-042100-
/O.EXP.KBOX.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190304T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-190304T2100Z/
Nantucket Sound-
109 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254>256-050215-
/O.EXP.KBOX.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190304T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0033.190305T0000Z-190306T1200Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
109 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM
EST Wednesday.

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.
  Seas 6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ235-237-050215-
/O.EXP.KBOX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-190304T1800Z/
/O.EXB.KBOX.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-190305T1500Z/
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
109 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ233-234-236-041915-
/O.EXP.KBOX.SC.Y.0035.000000T0000Z-190304T1800Z/
Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Narragansett Bay-
109 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Gusty northwest winds will continue to diminish this afternoon.

$$

ANZ250-050215-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-190305T1500Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
109 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-050215-
/O.EXT.KBOX.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-190305T1200Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
109 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ231-050000-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0033.000000T0000Z-190305T0000Z/
Cape Cod Bay-
109 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots,
or seas 5 feet or greater, are expected to produce hazardous wave
conditions to small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1245 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and pleasant today with high pressure. Offshore storm system
for tonight into Monday morning, bringing a period of snow for
most of S New England, a mix with rain along the South Coast.
Colder than normal air pours over the Northeast USA for much of
the week, especially Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure
slowly builds over New England by Friday, bringing dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM Update...

Diurnal heating is helping to expand mid level clouds over
northern MA late this morning as thin cirrus streams overhead in
WSW flow aloft. Clouds will continue to increase through the
day, hindering max heating where they thicken up more quickly,
most likely over northern zones earlier. Temperatures were
raised a bit over the next few hours to bring them in line with
observations which had outpaced the forecast a bit. Otherwise
forecast is on track.

Previous Discussion...

No significant changes to the forecast at this time.

A few cloud patches, especially on the NH border. But satellite
loop shows these clouds diminishing in coverage. Meanwhile
cirrus clouds are racing overhead. In general, sunny skies are
in place for the morning and early afternoon. The solar heating
should build a mixed layer to near 850 mb. Unfettered, that
would support sfc max temps in the mid 40s. But with the
increasing clouds this afternoon the temperatures may not
realize full mixing. The current forecast in the upper 30s and
lower 40s looks fine.

Storm system currently over the West Gulf/Lower Mississippi
Valley is moving east-northeast across the Deep South. Expect
this to reach the Atlantic coast by evening with the upper flow
curving the track more northeast. This continues to be in line
with the forecast.

Previous discussion...

Fairly nice March morning with departing overnight short wave
yielding rising heights and anticyclonic flow across New England.
This subsidence should result in at least partial sunshine if not
mostly sunny conditions in the morning. Higher March sun angle and
light winds will provide pleasant conditions. However with mid/upper
flow very progressive warm advection clouds will quickly be on the
increase during the afternoon from west to east with low risk of
light snow entering CT by sunset. Highs Sunday mainly from the upper
30s to lower 40s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
*/ Highlights ...

 - Moderate to heavy snowfall tonight into Monday morning
 - Marginal warning-level event with 5 to 7 inches forecast
 - Headlines can still change given forecast uncertainty
 - Aside, definite impacts for the Monday morning commute

*/ Discussion ...

Incipient storm center maturing into a open frontal wave along a SW-
NE baroclinic zone. Notably not closed off until further downstream,
frontogenetical / deformation focus along the N/NE low quadrant, a
good over-running thump of a kinked anticyclonic warm-moist conveyor
belt brought subtly NW beneath the RRQ of an adjacent H3 jet streak.
SW-NE banding possible, echoing up through the dendritic growth zone
there's still uncertainty as to the depth / magnitude across S New
England as the latest suite of forecast guidance is slightly faster
and slightly S/E, a trend that's continue the last couple of model
forecast runs. However, despite the quick-moving, progressive nature
of the storm, there's brief signal of efficient snowfall production
and 1" / hour snowfall rates with decent ascent occurring within the
dendritic growth zone, notably H7 jet convergent forcing beneath H5
 ascent.

Consensus forecast approach with neighboring WFO / WPC collaboration
has yielded a widespread 5 to 7 inch event across S New England, a
marginal warning event. However uncertainty, especially coastlines
where isallobaric / gradient flow may yield an onshore flow against
interior northerlies. As alluded to by the prior forecaster, the -2C
H95 isotherm is a good indicator as to where snow accumulation will
likely have some difficultly, roughly running from Westerly RI to
Plymouth MA. Areas SE of this line will likely see less than warning-
level snows, at advisory-level around 3 to 5 inches with the Islands
seeing the least, around a coating up to 3 inches. More mixed-in wet
outcomes for areas SE of roughly Westerly RI to Plymouth MA. Hard
hit areas with this storm look to be from Hartford CT to Boston MA
mainly 10p-7a (3z-12z) as consensus forecast guidance is coincident
with better forcing within the dendritic growth zone, nose of the H7
jet, and SLRs of 12-15:1. Fluffy, efficient accumulating snow.

Making the call. Between ensemble probabilistics and mean guidance,
will go with warnings over all of S New England but NW MA and Cape
where advisories have been posted. To make clear, forecast changes
are still possible given we're dealing with a marginal warning-level
event, right at the 6-inch threshold. It's entirely possible that
warnings could be downgraded to advisories and vice versa. Somewhat
concerned that aforementioned isallobaric / gradient flow will
complicate accumulations along the E/SE coast. 2m temperatures that
will hover around the freezing mark, especially as we get into the
daylight hours on Monday, accumulations will be difficult should 2m
temperatures be 33 degrees or above, potential implications on snow-
fall amounts. Snowfall intensity an additional factor that can over-
come 2m temperature issues. Always nuances, never easy.

Either which way, a pretty decent snowfall for the Sunday night into
the Monday morning timeframe which have impacts for the Monday AM
commute. Plan on giving yourself extra time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Big Picture...

Hudsons Bay upper low dominates the flow over Eastern and Central
USA much of the week. The upper low shifts east midweek, with the
main trough axis moving across New England Wednesday. Even then, a
general cyclonic flow lingers over New England through Friday.

Per SPC Sounding Climatology, the ALY-OKX-CHH average for 500 mb
height in early March is 544 to 550 Dm. Forecast values trend
lower/colder through midweek with the lowest/coldest values around
510 to 516 Dm on Wednesday-Thursday, about as low as they have been
on those dates since 1948. A similar pattern is evident in the
forecast 850 mb temperatures.

The trough lifts north through Eastern Canada Friday, with the upper
flow east of the Mississippi River becoming zonal Friday-Saturday.
Model output remains consistent much of the period, so moderate to
high confidence through Thursday followed by just moderate
confidence Friday-Saturday.

Concerns...

Monday night through Thursday...

Upper trough slowly moves over the region. Cross sections indicate
cold pool clouds, most frequent over northern Mass. The coldest
temperatures aloft, and resulting instability, will be on Wednesday
and Thursday with -36C to -40C at 500 mb. This is also the time the
trough axis moves overhead. Expect variable sky cover and possible
flurries Wednesday-Thursday.

Cold air advection will encourage mixing to at least 850 mb and
possibly 800 mb. Winds in the mixed layer Wednesday are expected
25 to 30 kt. Expect gusty west-northwest winds each day.

Temperatures in the mixed layer will support max temps 25-30 degrees
Tuesday and in the mid 20s Wednesday-Thursday. Normal MIN temps are
also 25-30 degrees, so expect cold days. With dew points in the
single numbers Wed and Thurs nights, expect min temps roughly 5-15.

Will also need to monitor for ocean effect clouds/snow showers with
air-water differentials around 20C.

Friday-Saturday...

Two upper lows...one along the Alaska Panhandle and the other near
the Kamchatka Peninsula are projected to merge during the week and
move into the Plains next weekend. The GFS yesterday was projecting
precip from this system into New England by Friday night; now the
GFS is suggesting a portion of this precip passes south of New
England in the zonal flow Saturday. Run-to-run changes are not
surprising so far in the future but indicate caution in forecasting
precip. We will show slight chance pops late Saturday/Saturday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Today ...
VFR. S winds. Low-end VFR to MVFR CIGs move in this evening as
light snow approaches from the southwest.

Tonight into Monday ...
MVFR-LIFR in -SN/SN. Best chance for heavy SN 06-11Z. SN mixes with
-RA/RA for the immediate S-coast, Cape and Islands. A general 5
 to 8 inch snowfall event for much of S New England. E winds
 becoming NE 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 30 kts for E/SE
 coastal terminals. Will see conditions improve as SN/RA ends
 and winds turning NW beginning 15z Monday.

KBOS Terminal...
-SN moves in roughly 02Z and persist as late as 15z
Monday. Impacts to the Monday AM push. Accumulation forecast on
runways of around 5 to 7 inches.

KBDL Terminal...
-SN moves in around 00Z and persists through as late as 12z.
 Impacts to the Monday AM push. Accumulation forecast on runways
 of around 5 to 7 inches.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night through Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts
up to 30 kt.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Monday/...High confidence.

Storm center passing close to the 40N/70W benchmark roughly
around 06Z/2 AM Monday ahead of which E/NE winds will increase
10 to 20 kts with gusts possible to gale force. GALE WATCHES
continue over the waters for the Monday morning period across
the SE waters. Seas getting back up around 6 to 9 feet.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of freezing
spray.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance
of freezing spray, slight chance of snow showers. Areas of
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow
showers, chance of freezing spray. Areas of visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
snow showers, chance of freezing spray. Areas of visibility
1 to 3 nm.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for MAZ004>007-009>021-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for MAZ002-003-008-022.
RI...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for RIZ001>007.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ231>234.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231-
     251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ250-
     254-255.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...WTB/Sipprell/BW
SHORT TERM...Sipprell
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/BW
MARINE...WTB/Sipprell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
411 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

CTZ002>004-MAZ004>007-009>021-026-RIZ001>007-040915-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-
Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-
411 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, most of
Massachusetts, and most of Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MAZ002-003-008-022-040915-
Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Barnstable MA-
411 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Cape Cod Massachusetts and
northwestern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MAZ023-024-RIZ008-040915-
Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Block Island RI-
411 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the islands of southeastern
Massachusetts and southern Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ254>256-040915-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
411 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-235>237-250-251-040915-
Boston Harbor-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
411 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231>234-040915-
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
411 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2019

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates, please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

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