Tornado Warning 17, NWS Birmingham, AL

400 
WWUS54 KBMX 240049
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
649 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

ALC057-240059-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190224T0130Z/
Fayette AL-
649 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for central,
northwestern and west central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3399 8742 3387 8758 3387 8764 3392 8763
      3400 8756
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 227DEG 33KT 3392 8757 

$$

ALC127-240130-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190224T0130Z/
Walker AL-
649 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CST FOR
NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTY...
    
At 649 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Kansas, or near Carbon Hill, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Carbon Hill, Kansas, Nauvoo and Eldridge. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 8742 3387 8758 3387 8764 3392 8763
      3400 8756
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 227DEG 33KT 3392 8757 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

89^GSatterwhite

762 
WWUS54 KBMX 240056
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
656 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

ALC127-240106-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-190224T0130Z/
Walker AL-
656 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for central,
northwestern and west central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3399 8742 3387 8758 3387 8764 3392 8763
      3400 8756
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 227DEG 33KT 3397 8751 

$$

89^GSatterwhite

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
559 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

The prefrontal line of isolated supercells across the heart of
Central Alabama has now moved east of I65 into more stable air.  The
threat will now shift back to the west along the dryline.  There
remains significant real estate that has either remained
uncontaminated or recovered from earlier convection.  Instability is
on the order of around 1000 Joules, due in large part to the
steepening lapse rates over top of the 60+ dewpoints. That along
with the deep layer shear will keep at least an enhanced risk over
the next several hours for areas along and northwest of I59.  Much
of the initial activity in Central MS has cold pooled and congealed
into a squall line.  However, there are semi-discrete supercells
north and south of this cold pool that remain quite dangerous.  Long-
lived mesocyclones with a few tornadoes will continue to be a threat
with any of these cells as they cross the state line.  Later in the
night, the main forcing is expected to move further north towards
the Ohio Valley, and the threat should diminish as a weakening
squall line.  This will likely occur east of I65.

17/KLAWS

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Friday.

We will continue to see some of the leftover rain in the far
southeast through 9 to 10 am Sunday, but then we can say goodbye to
the rain for a few days. Sunday and Monday will be dry as high
pressure will be in control. Much of Tuesday will be dry as well,
but we will begin to see an increase in clouds as the high begins to
to exit the region and the southerly flow begins to increase across
the area once again.

By Tuesday night, low pressure develops along the gulf coast and
slides slowly across the area. This will be the first wave of
several upper level wave that will slide through the area through
Friday ahead of the next cold front that will work into the area
Friday night and move out by Saturday morning.

Synoptically this pattern makes sense and will be the overall
forecast for the time being, but there are some model discrepancies
in regards to position of the main vorticity max and support of the
system. The more bullish system, the GFS, has the main support in
the north and drags the front through with very little wrap around
behind it. This would entail a fairly dry weekend for the extended.
The Euro, brings things a touch further south and therefore brings
the upper level low a little further south. This would provide more
clouds and some linger light rain into Saturday. Right now either
scenario is plausible and will need to monitor over the next few
days  the trends of each solution. But for now the main focus will
be on the system moving the area through tonight.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Regional radar is active this evening as showers and thunderstorms
move across Central Alabama. The main line of showers and storms
are beginning to move into our northwestern counties and will
move to KTCL as early as 01Z. This activity will continue east
to our northern terminals between 02-08Z. Did include TEMPO
groups for each of these sites to time out the onset of
thunderstorms and lowering vis. Currently have IFR conditions
during these TEMPO times. Amendments may be needed if the
movement of the activity changes. Do not have the mention of
thunder at KMGM/KTOI at this time. However, rain showers with
lower cigs/vis can be expected as early as 04Z for these two
sites. Showers will dissipate from west to east overnight and
winds will shift to the northwest as a frontal boundary moves
through the area. KTCL could see diminishing rain chances as early
as 09Z and 12Z for KANB. A few vicinity showers will linger at
KMGM and KTOI a little after 12Z.

07

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A prolonged period of rainfall will continue through Sunday
morning, with a strong storm system expected to move through
Central Alabama tonight. Very wet conditions are expected,
especially across the northern half of the area. Drier conditions
return to the area for at least a couple days to start next week.
There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flood Watch through late tonight for the following counties:
Bibb...Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...Clay...Cleburne...Etowah...
Fayette...Jefferson...Lamar...Marion...Pickens...Shelby...St.
Clair...Talladega...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
947 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-241900-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
947 AM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...through Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are likely later today and tonight as a line of
thunderstorms moves across Central Alabama. All modes of severe
weather are possible including tornadoes, damaging winds, and large
hail. At this time, the main threat appears to begin around 5 PM in
the northwest and may continue through 3 AM in the east. However,
isolated severe storms may develop across west Alabama this
afternoon.

Areas of locally heavy rainfall will remain possible today and
tonight. Therefore, the flood potential remains high. Any heavy rain
on already saturated grounds will only enhance the flood potential.
The main flood threat area will be near and north of an Aliceville
to Calera to Wedowee line. Elsewhere, minor flooding is possible if
showers and storms move over the same areas more than once.

Central Alabama rivers will experience rises over the next several
days. River stages will reach into the Minor and Moderate flood
levels. Check the latest river flood products for specific information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Central Alabama rivers will continue to experience rises the next
several days. River stages will reach into the Minor and Moderate
flood levels. Check the latest river flood products for specific
information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will likely be
needed this afternoon and tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
545 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE HAMILTON           34.20N 87.93W
02/23/2019                   MARION             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY
            43 AND HIGHWAY 187.

&&

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
547 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0457 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHOTTSVILLE             34.26N 88.13W
02/23/2019                   MARION             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN NEAR KEMP CHURCH.

&&

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
551 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     FLOOD            ONEONTA                 33.95N 86.48W
02/23/2019                   BLOUNT             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER FLOODING A CONVENIENCE STORE IN
            ONEONTA. ALSO REPORTS OF SEVERAL LOW LYING
            ROADWAYS FLOODED IN AND NEAR ONEONTA.

&&

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
555 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW HAMILTON           34.15N 88.00W
02/23/2019                   MARION             AL   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN NEAR BEXAR AVENUE WEST
            AND REDBRIDGE DRIVE AREA OF HAMILTON.

&&

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
624 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW PIGEYE            34.25N 87.94W
02/23/2019                   MARION             AL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN NEAR SHILOH SCHOOL.

&&

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
631 PM CST SAT FEB 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     TORNADO          3 ESE HIGHTOGY          33.67N 88.04W
02/23/2019                   LAMAR              AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE KINGVILLE AREA
            ALONG AND NEAR HIGHWAY 20. DAMAGE LIKELY DUE
            TO A TORNADO.

&&

DM