Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
716 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

The rain showers and scattered thunderstorms east of I65 will
continue to progress north and east this AM. A vertically stacked
low and an increase in moisture will allow for another round of
showers and thunderstorms across Central Alabama today. A few
showers and storms in western Mississippi have already begun to
form along the warm front associated with the low. Similar to
yesterday, convective activity will be scattered in nature. There
were a few stronger storms (aka spinny showers) that moved through
the area yesterday afternoon. Overall, the severe threat is low
but not zero. If there are breaks in the clouds this afternoon,
increasing temperatures could increase surface instability. This
along with dynamic forcing from the approaching low could spark
some stronger convection. Satellite PWAT values indicate the 2"
axis still resides over much of Central Alabama with another
1-1.25" expected to move in later today. So far, much of the rain
that has fallen has been soaked up by the dry ground. However, as
the ground becomes more saturated and rain chances continue
through the weekend, localized flooding potential (particularly
in low-lying/poor drainage areas) will need to be monitored.

07

.LONG TERM...
/Issued at 401 AM CT/

By Saturday, models are in fair agreement that our upper low will
be centered near Tennessee as a closed low along with an
associated surface low near Northern Mississippi. We will
continue with a very moist atmosphere over Alabama and successive
waves of convection. As we move into Sunday, the upper low is
expected to become an open trough from the main Canadian low. At
the surface, the low should progress northeast some dragging a
frontal boundary with it. However, by Monday, as our main upper
system progresses east, this will aide in pushing a second surface
frontal system out of the Plain States into the Mississippi River
Valley, nudging the first frontal system some to the southeast
into Central Alabama. We will stay in our wet pattern thus through
the weekend and into Monday.

Past Monday, as we move into Tuesday toward the middle of next
week, our upper trough will weaken across the Southeast U.S. as
the main energy gets absorbed into the main eastward progressing
upper low with more of a progressive northwest flow into Alabama.
This should aide bringing the second surface boundary through the
area allowing for less overall moisture, lower rain chances, and
some slightly cooler readings to the area for the end of our
forecast by mid week.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

A wet pattern remains across Central Alabama through the forecast
period with waves of convection expected. Currently we have MVFR
areas of stratus across the area. Cigs heights should lift some as
the morning progresses. I have timed convection initially with
radar and latest hires guidance. An isolated strong storm cannot
be ruled out this afternoon and evening.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An extended period of wet weather will continue through the
weekend, with elevated rain chances each period. This, combined
with high relative humidity values should limit any fire weather
concerns across the area. Low clouds and fog are possible each
morning over the next few days as grounds become saturated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  68  82  67  83 /  70  70  90  70  80
Anniston    83  69  83  69  82 /  70  70  90  70  80
Birmingham  84  70  84  69  84 /  70  70  90  60  80
Tuscaloosa  85  71  85  71  86 /  70  60  80  50  70
Calera      83  69  84  68  84 /  70  70  80  60  80
Auburn      83  69  82  70  82 /  70  70  80  70  80
Montgomery  86  71  86  70  86 /  70  70  80  60  80
Troy        86  71  85  69  83 /  70  70  80  70  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

07/08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
446 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-081300-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
446 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

There is a marginal threat for severe weather across Central Alabama
this afternoon and evening from around noon through 10 PM. A brief
tornado or damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not expected
at this time.

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
924 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

ALZ030-071515-
Sumter AL-
924 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 1015 AM
CDT...

At 919 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Prismatic to near Middleton to near De
Soto. Movement was east at 35 mph.  This line is expected to cross
the Alabama state line and enter extreme southwestern Sumter County
with by 9:45 AM CDT.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Livingston, York, Cuba, Gainesville, Epes, Emelle, Boyd, The
University Of West Alabama, Bluffport, Coatopa, Dug Hill, Kinterbish,
Old Mallard Airport, Sumterville, Lilita, Bellamy, I 20 Welcome
Center At Cuba, Ward, Whitfield and Payneville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3272 8837 3282 8813 3274 8810 3272 8808
      3269 8812 3268 8809 3269 8806 3266 8805
      3264 8806 3264 8808 3262 8808 3259 8806
      3260 8802 3247 8796 3243 8804 3238 8804
      3235 8797 3233 8795 3231 8796 3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 249DEG 30KT 3256 8876 3221 8861 3200 8867

JD/02

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
958 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

ALZ039-071600-
Marengo-
958 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MARENGO COUNTY...

At 957 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Kinterbish to near Lisman to near
Toxey to near Gilbertown. Movement was east at 40 mph.  These storms
are expected to move in to Marengo County by 10:15 AM CDT.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Linden, Jefferson, Thomaston, Sweet Water, Myrtlewood, Dayton,
Putnam, Freddie Jones Field, Pin Hook, Nanafalia, Consul, Magnolia,
Wayne, Surginer, Miller, Chickasaw State Park, Dixons Mill, Vineland,
Half Acre and Carleys.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3206 8812 3208 8804 3214 8804 3217 8801
      3228 8802 3231 8796 3228 8794 3229 8793
      3242 8804 3241 8752 3231 8752 3231 8747
      3227 8747 3225 8752 3213 8752 3213 8762
      3200 8763 3199 8799 3200 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 1457Z 268DEG 36KT 3239 8825 3216 8820 3197 8825 3182
8835

JD/02