Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Birmingham, AL

824 
WWUS54 KBMX 182332
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
632 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

ALC125-190000-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-190419T0000Z/
Tuscaloosa AL-
632 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY...

At 632 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles northeast of Samantha to near Brookwood to
near Low Gap, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Lake View, Brookwood, Coaling, Vance, Bull City, Abernant, Samantha,
Lake Wildwood, Deerlick Creek Campgrounds, Mercedes Benz Of Alabama,
Bankhead Lock And Dam, North Bibb, Whitson, Lake Tuscaloosa, East
Brookwood, Windham Springs, Peterson, Lake Harris, Hagler and Lake
Nicol.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central and
west central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3357 8752 3360 8743 3359 8732 3352 8732
      3350 8726 3349 8733 3346 8734 3342 8725
      3331 8716 3328 8707 3322 8710 3324 8714
      3319 8720 3313 8720 3313 8728 3301 8732
      3300 8738 3300 8743 3322 8744 3345 8765
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 253DEG 39KT 3349 8751 3326 8736 3300 8734 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

87/GRANTHAM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
503 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

As of 5 PM, a well-defined bow echo and MVC located in eastern MS
will impact our western counties very soon. Radar velocities
indicate the presence of a 70-80 kt rear-inflow jet capable of
producing widespread damaging winds and short-lived tornadoes.
This feature appears to be tracking generally along the I-59
corridor and may impact the Tuscaloosa and Birmingham areas within
the next few hours. Storms are currently ahead of schedule with
respect to short range model guidance, and slightly less
instability may be realized near the northern end of the QLCS.
However, due to strong pressure falls and  upper-level dynamics,
this well-organized activity will probably be maintained even with
SBCAPE of 500 J/kg.

Farther south, storms across far southeastern MS are a little less
organized and are showing signs of slower forward movement. This
may allow much higher dewpoints to advect northward tonight
across East Alabama. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded northward
to Interstate 20 in our eastern counties to account for this
potential.

Concern is growing for areas along and south of Interstate 85 from
Montgomery to the AL/GA state line. This is where SBCAPE values
have the best chance of reaching the 1000-1400 J/kg range before
storms arrive. If this amount of instability is realized,
effective storm relative helicity values of 400-500 m2/s2 will
support a potential for strong tornadoes (EF2 intensity). 0-6 km
shear vectors are supportive of a mixed mode of supercells and
bowing line segments as the event unfolds overnight. Due to low
confidence, we will refrain from messaging the potential for
strong tornadoes in our products at this time and continue to
monitor mesoscale trends.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions continue through the afternoon ahead of an
approaching storm system. Winds will increase through the
afternoon from the south, with gusts up to 20-25kts.

Showers and storms will spread across the area from west to east,
moving into west central Alabama after 22Z. The main aviation
concern will be within a line of strong to severe storms, which
could produce strong winds and heavy rainfall. There is some
uncertainty on timing, and this impact is handled with a tempo
group for now. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm could
develop ahead of this line.

Behind the line of storms, light to moderate rainfall is expected
with MVFR vis and cigs. Scattered showers will remain possible
overnight. Winds will turn to the west southwest, and eventually
northwest at BHM, EET, and TCL, decreasing with time.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain and storms will spread from west to east across Central
Alabama this evening and overnight, as a cold front moves through
the area. Storms could be strong to severe tonight, with 1.5 to 2
inches of rainfall expected across the area. Strong southerly
winds tonight will become westerly and then northwesterly
tomorrow. Speeds gradually decrease, with 20ft winds remaining at
8-12 mph through Friday afternoon. Low clouds and possibly
localized fog is possible early Friday morning, with light rain
showers or drizzle possible through the day.

Drier air will spread into the area by the weekend, with RH values
falling into the 30 percent range Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
444 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-200045-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
444 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Tornadoes and damaging winds up to 60 mph are possible through 5 am
for all of Central Alabama. Rainfall will be 1 to 3 inches overnight
and these rain amounts may lead to localized flooding. Ahead of the
line of thunderstorms, breezy conditions are expected with wind
speeds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Minor flooding is expected to continue along the Tombigbee River
basin through at least Monday. Please refer to river warnings and
statements for specific details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be needed
tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
553 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

ALZ012-013-022-023-182345-
Fayette AL-Pickens AL-Tuscaloosa AL-Lamar AL-
553 PM CDT THU APR 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA...
NORTHERN PICKENS...SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTIES
UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 553 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Carrollton, moving north at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Reform, Millport, Kennedy, Belk, Ethelsville, Ashcraft Corner, Stone
Wall, Moores Bridge, North Pickens Airport, McShan, Shaw, Lubbub,
Forest and Melborne.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3367 8826 3362 8766 3339 8767 3326 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 195DEG 49KT 3333 8808

25/Owen