Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
503 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

As of 5 PM, a well-defined bow echo and MVC located in eastern MS
will impact our western counties very soon. Radar velocities
indicate the presence of a 70-80 kt rear-inflow jet capable of
producing widespread damaging winds and short-lived tornadoes.
This feature appears to be tracking generally along the I-59
corridor and may impact the Tuscaloosa and Birmingham areas within
the next few hours. Storms are currently ahead of schedule with
respect to short range model guidance, and slightly less
instability may be realized near the northern end of the QLCS.
However, due to strong pressure falls and  upper-level dynamics,
this well-organized activity will probably be maintained even with
SBCAPE of 500 J/kg.

Farther south, storms across far southeastern MS are a little less
organized and are showing signs of slower forward movement. This
may allow much higher dewpoints to advect northward tonight
across East Alabama. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded northward
to Interstate 20 in our eastern counties to account for this
potential.

Concern is growing for areas along and south of Interstate 85 from
Montgomery to the AL/GA state line. This is where SBCAPE values
have the best chance of reaching the 1000-1400 J/kg range before
storms arrive. If this amount of instability is realized,
effective storm relative helicity values of 400-500 m2/s2 will
support a potential for strong tornadoes (EF2 intensity). 0-6 km
shear vectors are supportive of a mixed mode of supercells and
bowing line segments as the event unfolds overnight. Due to low
confidence, we will refrain from messaging the potential for
strong tornadoes in our products at this time and continue to
monitor mesoscale trends.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions continue through the afternoon ahead of an
approaching storm system. Winds will increase through the
afternoon from the south, with gusts up to 20-25kts.

Showers and storms will spread across the area from west to east,
moving into west central Alabama after 22Z. The main aviation
concern will be within a line of strong to severe storms, which
could produce strong winds and heavy rainfall. There is some
uncertainty on timing, and this impact is handled with a tempo
group for now. A few showers and possibly a thunderstorm could
develop ahead of this line.

Behind the line of storms, light to moderate rainfall is expected
with MVFR vis and cigs. Scattered showers will remain possible
overnight. Winds will turn to the west southwest, and eventually
northwest at BHM, EET, and TCL, decreasing with time.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain and storms will spread from west to east across Central
Alabama this evening and overnight, as a cold front moves through
the area. Storms could be strong to severe tonight, with 1.5 to 2
inches of rainfall expected across the area. Strong southerly
winds tonight will become westerly and then northwesterly
tomorrow. Speeds gradually decrease, with 20ft winds remaining at
8-12 mph through Friday afternoon. Low clouds and possibly
localized fog is possible early Friday morning, with light rain
showers or drizzle possible through the day.

Drier air will spread into the area by the weekend, with RH values
falling into the 30 percent range Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
444 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-200045-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
444 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Tornadoes and damaging winds up to 60 mph are possible through 5 am
for all of Central Alabama. Rainfall will be 1 to 3 inches overnight
and these rain amounts may lead to localized flooding. Ahead of the
line of thunderstorms, breezy conditions are expected with wind
speeds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Minor flooding is expected to continue along the Tombigbee River
basin through at least Monday. Please refer to river warnings and
statements for specific details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be needed
tonight.