Wind Chill Advisory 6, NWS Bismarck, ND

Adams County, ND, Billings County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Bowman County, ND, Burke County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Dickey County, ND, Divide County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Golden Valley County, ND, Grant County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McKenzie County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Slope County, ND, Stark County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Wells County, ND, Williams County, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1234 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

Still no big changes this update. Thinking we will need to
increase forecast wind speeds tonight...and may need to add some
counties just west of the current winter weather advisory into the
advisory. Otherwise, arctic front was approaching the northwest
corner of the state. The worst visibility seen so far was in
Regina with 3 miles in light snow and blowing snow.

UPDATE Issued at 1011 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

No big changes this update. Arctic front had already passed
through Saskatoon in central/south central Saskatchewan, and
was approaching Regina. Thinking that the timing of the arctic
front (winds turning straight out of the north and falling
temperatures) reaching northwestern ND, for example at Crosby and
Divide/Burke County, around noon CST. We are planning on posting a
"timing map" for the arctic front.

There was also another "pre-arctic front" with gusty northwest
winds ahead of the more northerly arctic front that has already
entered northwestern ND.

Will be watching upstream obs for any indications of lower
visibilities. A bit uneasy with the boundary between blizzard
warning to the east and advisory to the west. Blizzard warning
means 1/4 mile or less vsby for a few hours. Winter weather
advisory is for 1/2 mile vsby for a few hours with little/no
falling snow. Splitting hairs on the forecast perspective...but
to drivers, it makes a big difference. Either case,
bad/iffy/dangerous for travel.

UPDATE Issued at 606 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

No major changes for this update. The latest short-term model runs
continue to advertise today/tonight's event about the same as
earlier runs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

A powerful Arctic cold front will produce strong northerly winds
across North Dakota this afternoon through Thursday morning,
resulting in significant blowing and drifting snow and dangerous
wind chills. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for near
blizzard conditions at times across the previous watch area with
the exception Divide and Williams Counties.

Quiet weather will continue this morning with warm air advection
and clearing skies ahead of the approaching front.

The Arctic front will move across the Canadian border this
afternoon and quickly plunge southward through the evening. A
brief period of light snow is possible along the leading edge of
the colder air given a cyclonic flow regime and steep low-level
lapse rates. Accumulations are expected to remain below half an
inch at this time.

The bigger story will be strengthening northerly winds. Models
remain in agreement with strong pressure rises and cold air
advection leading to sustained winds around 30 mph and mix-down
gust potential of 35-45 mph. Given recent rounds of snowfall with
high snow-to-liquid ratios and colder temperatures outside far
southwest North Dakota, the expectation is that snow will be
easily blowable. However, recent research indicates that with very
little new snow falling it takes stronger winds than currently
forecast (sustained winds 10-15 mph higher) to produce true
widespread blizzard conditions. Therefore, blowing and drifting
snow is expected and will likely reduce visibility, perhaps to
near zero at times in open country, but confidence is not high
enough at this time in meeting true blizzard criteria to warrant
the issuance of a Blizzard Warning. Conditions will be closely
monitored and should winds appear stronger or more snow fall than
expected an upgrade to a warning in some locations could occur.
Regardless, travel will be hazardous today and those that must
travel should have a winter survival kit on hand and be prepared
for rapidly changing conditions.

On top of all that, temperatures are forecast to plummet below zero
by sunrise Thursday morning, and not recover much during the rest of
the day. This will result in dangerous wind chills around 35
below zero, with the coldest values expected around the Turtle
Mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

Global models are in agreement with a northwest flow pattern
persisting through the extended period, with numerous clipper
systems passing through. The strongest of these is forecast to
impact the area Saturday and Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF are in
agreement with a higher potential for accumulating snow and winds
as strong, if not stronger than the Wednesday/Thursday system
earlier in the week. A short-lived warming trend is forecast
through the weekend before Arctic air returns next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

A potent arctic cold front will enter the northwestern corner of ND
around Crosby around 18z, then push south/southeast across the state
this afternoon. Increasing northwest winds ahead of the arctic front
should become more northerly and increase to 20-28 knots sustained
with gusts 30-40 knots. Noted some MVFR cigs at KISN ahead of arctic
front and IFR/fog at Rolla at/before 18z today. MVFR cigs should
spread south and east across ND this afternoon with VFR/MVFR cigs
and vsbys in light snow and blowing snow, then VFR cigs later
tonight from northwest to southeast. Vsbys may reduce to IFR at
times in blowing snow. Northerly winds should persist through
tonight keeping MVFR/VFR vsbys in blowing snow most areas.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
Thursday for NDZ021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for NDZ002>005-
010>013.

&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
400 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

NDZ002>005-010>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-241000-
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-
McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-
Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
400 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect this afternoon through
early Thursday morning.

Light snow and strong winds gusting to 45 mph are expected
this afternoon through early Thursday morning. Blowing and
drifting snow will reduce visibility to near zero at
times. Dangerous wind chills as low as 35 below zero are expected
tonight through Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Accumulating snow and strong winds are possible Saturday and
Sunday.

Dangerous wind chills to 30 below are possible Sunday night and
Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ001-009-017>020-031>034-040>045-241000-
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
400 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019 /300 AM MST Wed Jan 23 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Light snow and strong winds gusting to 35 mph are expected
this afternoon through early Thursday morning. Hazardous travel is
possible with reduced visibility and slick roads due to blowing
and drifting snow. Dangerous wind chills as low as 35 below zero
are expected tonight through Thursday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Accumulating snow and strong winds are possible Saturday and
Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

AJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1002 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

NDZ001-009-017>020-031>034-040>045-232215-
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Including the cities of Crosby, Williston, Watford City,
Killdeer, Halliday, Beulah, Hazen, Center, Beach, Medora,
Dickinson, Mandan, Marmarth, Mott, New England, Elgin, Carson,
New Leipzig, Bowman, Hettinger, Fort Yates, Selfridge, and Solen
1002 AM CST Wed Jan 23 2019 /902 AM MST Wed Jan 23 2019/

...WINTRY WEATHER WILL IMPACT TRAVEL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

Light snow and strong winds gusting to 35 mph are expected
this afternoon through early Thursday morning. Hazardous travel is
possible with reduced visibility and slick roads due to blowing
and drifting snow. Additionally, dangerous wind chills as low as
35 below zero are expected tonight through Thursday morning.

MJ/JV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
154 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019

NDZ018>023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051-232200-
Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Stark-Morton-
Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
Including the cities of Killdeer, Halliday, Beulah, Hazen,
Center, Garrison, Washburn, Underwood, Wilton, Turtle Lake,
Mcclusky, Goodrich, Harvey, Fessenden, Carrington, Dickinson,
Mandan, Bismarck, Steele, Tappen, Jamestown, Marmarth, Mott,
New England, Elgin, Carson, New Leipzig, Bowman, Hettinger,
Fort Yates, Selfridge, Solen, Linton, Strasburg, Napoleon,
Gackle, Lamoure, Edgeley, Kulm, Wishek, Ashley, Oakes,
and Ellendale
154 PM CST Wed Jan 23 2019 /1254 PM MST Wed Jan 23 2019/

...DRIFTING SNOW WILL CAUSE ICY ROADS IN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...

Gusty winds will cause drifting snow that will melt and refreeze
on area roads this afternoon, leading to icy conditions. Black ice
may be difficult to see. This includes portions of Interstate 94
between Dickinson and Jamestown, and Highway 83 between Washburn
and the South Dakota state line south of Linton.

The North Dakota Highway Patrol advises against using cruise
control during icy conditions.

Even stronger winds will develop by late afternoon or early
evening, and will continue through early Thursday morning,
causing blowing and drifting snow and low wind chills.

CJS