Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
547 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 547 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Cold front located from just west of Minot south to Glen Ullin.
Severe discrete storms continue merge together into a cluster
along and ahead of the front. No change to the current forecast or
the ongoing severe thunderstorm watch which continues until 10 PM
CDT for most of central ND. More thunderstorms will move from
South Dakota north this evening through tonight. These storms will
be more attached with the upper level low and stronger forced
ascent that is progged to approach later tonight through Saturday.

UPDATE Issued at 419 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Quick update for thunderstorms forming in south central North
Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Severe thunderstorm watch 654 has been issued for central North
Dakota this afternoon and evening.

Organized line of thunderstorms has formed along the cold front
similar to CAM model forecast. The HREF ensemble depicts some
short to medium length supercells tracking northeast along the
front and nothing has changed to the anticipated scenario and
storm mode, with a linear MCS expected to form and track across
central into eastern North Dakota through this evening.

A secondary thrust of severe weather may be possible across
southwest and south central North Dakota late this evening and
overnight as the CAM models now suggest.

Saturday will see widespread showers and and scattered
thunderstorms as the main upper low tracks into the region.

In addition to the severe weather, heavy rains will be a concern,
although current indications are the rainfall will not completely
overlap the september rains from last 2 weeks.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

After this rain event, mainly dry weather is forecast through
Tuesday, with scattered showers Wednesday through Friday.  Much
cooler weather Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 547 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Showers and scattered thunderstorms, some severe with large hail
and damaging winds continue to be a threat for KMOT/KBIS and KJMS
through 07z Saturday. Although scattered showers and thunderstorms
will slide into KDIK and KISN mainly after 06z, the severity will
be limited. MVFR to IFR cigs can be expected this taf period with
the precipitation.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
237 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>047-050-211945-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-
McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-McIntosh-
237 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 /137 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening. Some storms will
be severe with large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging
winds to 60 mph the main threats. An isolated tornado threat is
also possible late this afternoon and evening.

Additionally, heavy rainfall today and tonight may lead to
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday morning through
Saturday evening. Additional heavy rainfall may lead to localized
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-048-051-211945-
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-La Moure-Dickey-
237 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 /137 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon west and tonight west and
central. Some storms may be strong to severe, with large hail to
the size of quarters and damaging winds to 60 mph the main
threats. An isolated tornado threat is also possible late this
afternoon and evening.

Additionally, heavy rainfall today and tonight may lead to
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday morning through
Saturday evening. Additional heavy rainfall may lead to localized
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
458 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             5 NE MAXBASS            48.78N 101.07W
09/20/2019  E1.00 INCH       BOTTINEAU          ND   PUBLIC

            NO DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

KS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>