Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
420 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 419 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Quick update for thunderstorms forming in south central North
Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Severe thunderstorm watch 654 has been issued for central North
Dakota this afternoon and evening.

Organized line of thunderstorms has formed along the cold front
similar to CAM model forecast. The HREF ensemble depicts some
short to medium length supercells tracking northeast along the
front and nothing has changed to the anticipated scenario and
storm mode, with a linear MCS expected to form and track across
central into eastern North Dakota through this evening.

A secondary thrust of severe weather may be possible across
southwest and south central North Dakota late this evening and
overnight as the CAM models now suggest.

Saturday will see widespread showers and and scattered
thunderstorms as the main upper low tracks into the region.

In addition to the severe weather, heavy rains will be a concern,
although current indications are the rainfall will not completely
overlap the september rains from last 2 weeks.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

After this rain event, mainly dry weather is forecast through
Tuesday, with scattered showers Wednesday through Friday.  Much
cooler weather Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Hazards to aviation focused on thunderstorms Friday afternoon
across the west, impacting kdik-kmot initially. Line of storms
will move east by late afternoon impacting KMOT-KBIS-KJMS late
afternoon and evening.

Then late tonight and Saturday mvfr to IFR conditions in
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expect over the
west and central.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
237 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>047-050-211945-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-
McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-McIntosh-
237 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 /137 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening. Some storms will
be severe with large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging
winds to 60 mph the main threats. An isolated tornado threat is
also possible late this afternoon and evening.

Additionally, heavy rainfall today and tonight may lead to
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday morning through
Saturday evening. Additional heavy rainfall may lead to localized
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044-048-051-211945-
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Dunn-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-La Moure-Dickey-
237 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 /137 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon west and tonight west and
central. Some storms may be strong to severe, with large hail to
the size of quarters and damaging winds to 60 mph the main
threats. An isolated tornado threat is also possible late this
afternoon and evening.

Additionally, heavy rainfall today and tonight may lead to
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday morning through
Saturday evening. Additional heavy rainfall may lead to localized
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
300 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     HAIL             1 ENE MINOT AIR FORCE B 48.42N 101.33W
09/20/2019  E1.00 INCH       WARD               ND   OTHER FEDERAL

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
306 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             6 N MAXBASS             48.81N 101.14W
09/20/2019  NAN INCH         BOTTINEAU          ND   PUBLIC

            GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL SIZED HAIL RESULTED IN
            A BROKEN WINDOW, HOLES IN SIDING, AND YARD
            COVERED IN HAIL.

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
408 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             BURLINGTON              48.28N 101.43W
09/20/2019  E2.75 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

            WINDSHIELD DAMAGED, WINDOWS BROKEN AND
            SIDING DAMAGE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
409 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             5 WSW WESTHOPE          48.89N 101.13W
09/20/2019  E2.25 INCH       BOTTINEAU          ND   PUBLIC

            RELAYED THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA. SAW CARS WITH
            BROKEN WINDSHIELDS, AND HAIL DAMAGE TO
            HOUSES AND MAILBOXES. HAIL LASTED
            APPROXIMATELY 5 MINUTES.

&&

MJ