Tornado Warning 3, NWS Binghamton, NY

842 
WWUS51 KBGM 150612
SVSBGM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
212 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

PAC115-150621-
/O.CAN.KBGM.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190415T0630Z/
Susquehanna PA-
212 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM EDT for central New
York...and northeastern Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4176 7529 4177 7538 4190 7542 4192 7538
      4196 7525 4205 7493 4179 7489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 255DEG 44KT 4187 7540 4181 7539 

$$

NYC025-105-PAC127-150630-
/O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190415T0630Z/
Delaware NY-Sullivan NY-Wayne PA-
212 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE...NORTHWESTERN SULLIVAN AND NORTHERN WAYNE
COUNTIES...

At 211 AM EDT, a severe squall line capable of producing both
tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage was located along a
line extending from Shehawken to near Pleasant Mount, moving east at
50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

These dangerous storms will be near...
  Starlight around 215 AM EDT.
  Hancock around 220 AM EDT.
  Equinunk and Fishs Eddy around 225 AM EDT.
  Peabrook, Stalker and Hankins around 230 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 4176 7529 4177 7538 4190 7542 4192 7538
      4196 7525 4205 7493 4179 7489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 255DEG 44KT 4187 7540 4181 7539 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

JRK

669 
WWUS51 KBGM 150619
SVSBGM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
219 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

NYC025-105-PAC127-150630-
/O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190415T0630Z/
Delaware NY-Sullivan NY-Wayne PA-
219 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM EDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHWESTERN SULLIVAN AND NORTHEASTERN WAYNE
COUNTIES...

At 219 AM EDT, a severe squall line capable of producing both
tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage was located along a
line extending from near Starlight to near Equinunk, moving east at
50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

These dangerous storms will be near...
  Hankins, Peabrook and Stalker around 230 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 4179 7489 4179 7511 4178 7528 4188 7530
      4193 7526 4203 7493
TIME...MOT...LOC 0619Z 257DEG 45KT 4188 7526 4181 7524 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

JRK

099 
WWUS51 KBGM 150625
SVSBGM

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
225 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

NYC025-105-PAC127-150635-
/O.EXP.KBGM.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190415T0630Z/
Delaware NY-Sullivan NY-Wayne PA-
225 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHWESTERN
SULLIVAN AND NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 230 AM EDT...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been 
cancelled. However, damaging winds remain likely and a Severe 
Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM EDT for central New
York...and northeastern Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4179 7489 4179 7511 4178 7528 4188 7530
      4193 7526 4203 7493
TIME...MOT...LOC 0625Z 255DEG 44KT 4190 7518 4183 7516 

$$

JRK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
153 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A period of rain and scattered thunderstorms will impact the
area late this evening and overnight. Some thunderstorms could
be severe with damaging winds, heavy rain and small hail. Monday
will be much cooler and cloudy with lingering rain showers,
mixing with wet snow during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
750 PM UPDATE...Severe thunderstorms just entering extreme
western NY at this time. Over our area, just some widespread
light to moderate showers associated with an ill defined warm
front. Have adjusted the pops and weather to account for the
break in the action ahead of the convection. Also adjusted the
temps due to the wide variability depending pf precip and
position to the fronts.

4 pm update...

Minor changes mostly to the timing of a line of thunderstorms
late this evening and overnight. This will be the biggest threat
this period. Despite the hour of day, thunderstorms could be
severe with damaging winds and maybe a tornado. This all being
forced by a strong system in the Ohio Valley now moving through
upstate NY late tonight. Very strong winds are pumping warm
moist air into the area now. Dewpoints in the 40s will rise into
the 50s. AVP already at 60. This will help with the low level
instability. Cape will be between 500 and 1k. Also low level
winds will be turning and increasing with height to provide bulk
shear of over 50 kts. An approaching upper level jet will
provide added lift. Model soundings indicate that our area will
likely be in a low CAPE high shear environment this evening and
tonight. Shear values are almost off the charts; with 0-6km
bulk shear around 60-75 kts, 0-1km shear around 45-55 kts and
0-1km helicity up to 500 M2/S2. Effective inflow layer shear
reaches 50 kts across NE PA between 00-06z tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a large portion of our
forecast area under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms
still. A small portion of the area along our southwest border
(Bradford/Luzerne counties) is under an Enhanced Risk. WPC also
has our entire forecast area under a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall.

Warm frontal rain across the area now. Amounts mostly under half
an inch. This will not cause any problems. Models show this
moving out by 8 PM. Then wait for the next trigger late evening.
Rain moves into NEPA while a line forms with the cold front
towards midnight. This line progresses quickly across the area
to be gone by 6 AM. Thunderstorms will have strong winds and
heavy rain. With the wet ground this could cause localized flash
flooding. Total rainfall of around an inch. This rain will
run off and rivers will rise but not flood. River forecasts all
below flood stages. This is true even in Oneida County where the
bulk of the snow just melted.

Temperatures fall late tonight then stay there with strong cold
air advection from the northwest. Clouds will remain over NY
with some showers. Colder temperatures falling through the 40s
and even 30s by late in the day in CNY will give the area some
snow mixing in. Some light snow accumulations possible across
the higher terrain in CNY late Monday into Monday evening. The
showers end around midnight. Temperatures fall mostly into the
low 30s Monday night. High pressure builds into the area late
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday: High pressure is expected to build eastward into our
region from the Great Lakes. This may provide a temporary window
of clearing. However, several ensemble members and the
operational GFS are faster with a warm front approaching the
area Tuesday afternoon. With that said, an isolated shower can
not be ruled out Tuesday afternoon west of I-81. Highs Tuesday
should warm into the 50's.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night: A warm front is expected to
move into the region and only slowly move throughout this period.
Moisture is likely to overrun this boundary to produce clouds
and some light showers on occasion. The ECMWF suite continues
to be on the drier end with the operational GFS and the GEFS
slowly coming down in terms of rainfall coverage and intensity.
Therefore, rain chances have been lowered given the lower
coverage of rainfall expected at this time. Clouds should keep
lows around 40 Tuesday night with highs Wednesday a few degrees
warmer than Tuesday. If we continue a drying trend in this time
period, fire weather may become more of a concern if the warm
front trends slower on tuesday with the moisture advection late
in the day. Right now Minimum RH values look to be around
35-40% along with momentum transfer off of soundings showing
the potential for some 20 mph gusts. Both of these do not reach
critical values. The passage of a warm front should keep
temperatures in the 40's again Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday and Thursday night: The warm frontal boundary is likely to
lift north of the region allowing for a drier and warmer period
ahead of the next cold front. A marine layer may keep low
clouds around across the Southern Catskills during the day
Thursday. This will keep that region slightly cooler with the
rest of the region seeing highs in the 60's. Given the warm air
advection and clouds thursday night, temperatures should only
fall into the 50's.

Friday through Sunday: Another very dynamic setup is likely with a
strong cold front moving across our area. Plenty of warm and moist
air should move into our region ahead of the front. Moisture
should be lifted along the cold front for several rounds of
showers. Ensembles are showing some instability riding northward
ahead of the front leading to a thunderstorm threat as well.
Given the likelihood of a high shear environment as well,
another severe thunderstorm threat is possible. Timing of the
front and northward extent of the instability are still somewhat
uncertain being around 5 days out. The front looks to be slow
exiting the region with more in the way of showers lingering
around next weekend. Temperatures look to cool into the 50's and
60's this weekend with 40's for lows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front with widespread showers and thunderstorms currently
moving across the region with trailing light rain and MVFR
conditions. The cooler and initially drier air right behind the
front should lift ceilings to VFR this morning for a brief
period of time, but then allow a strato-cu deck of MVFR and
fuel-alternate required cigs and on and off scattered rain
showers into the afternoon. Conditions dry out this evening with
VFR conditions developing after 00Z.

Winds will turn w/nwly and light behind the front before
becoming gusty 20 to 30 kt this morning through the afternoon,
and then going less than 10 kt this evening.

Outlook...

Monday overnight through Tuesday...becoming mostly VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Primarily VFR.

Friday...Restrictions likely with rain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DGM/TAC
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJT/DGM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
324 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

NYZ009-037-151930-
Northern Oneida-Southern Oneida-
324 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Periods of rain are expected through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall
is possible from this system which will increase the chance of small
stream and poor drainage flooding, particularly in locations where
any residual snow cover melts away this weekend. The Black River
flowing through Boonville, and West Canada creek from Hinckley to
Poland should be monitored closely for possible minor flooding.

Some thunderstorms with damaging winds are also possible overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ015>018-022>025-036-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072-151930-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-
Tompkins-Madison-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-
Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
324 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Rain will continue tonight, with thunderstorms also likely. The
thunderstorms could be severe with damaging winds, isolated
tornadoes, and hail. Locally heavy rainfall is possible from this
system, bringing a low chance for small stream and poor drainage
flooding to the area. Main stem rivers will rise a few to several
feet from this rainfall, but river flooding is not currently
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1045 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HORNELL                 42.32N  77.66W
04/14/2019                   STEUBEN            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD COUNTY RT 68

&&

HLC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1128 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

NYZ009-016>018-036-150430-
Onondaga NY-Southern Cayuga NY-Seneca NY-Madison NY-
Northern Oneida NY-
1128 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...WEST CENTRAL
ONEIDA...NORTH CENTRAL SENECA...NORTHWESTERN MADISON...NORTHWESTERN
CAYUGA AND NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM EDT...

At 1127 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cayuga to near Fair Haven Beach State
Park. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Onondaga, Syracuse, Clay, Cicero, Auburn, De Witt, Lysander, Van
Buren, Baldwinsville and North Syracuse.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4309 7574 4287 7675 4302 7676 4303 7650
      4323 7647 4323 7630 4320 7628 4321 7626
      4324 7627 4324 7626 4320 7622 4322 7620
      4327 7621 4320 7608 4315 7589 4328 7587
      4333 7588 4345 7582
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 231DEG 44KT 4295 7670 4328 7673

JRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1139 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

NYZ016>018-036-044-150445-
Onondaga NY-Cortland NY-Southern Cayuga NY-Seneca NY-Madison NY-
1139 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...CENTRAL SENECA...
WESTERN MADISON...CAYUGA...NORTHWESTERN CORTLAND AND SOUTHERN
ONONDAGA COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM EDT...

At 1138 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Cayuga to Sheldrake. Movement was
northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Onondaga, Syracuse, Auburn, De Witt, Sullivan, Pompey, Seneca Falls,
Chittenango, Canastota and Manlius.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4310 7574 4286 7568 4262 7661 4263 7667
      4261 7666 4257 7682 4292 7680
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 233DEG 43KT 4291 7666 4269 7669

JRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1201 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

NYZ057-062-PAZ040-072-150445-
Sullivan NY-Delaware NY-Southern Wayne PA-Northern Wayne PA-
1201 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...SOUTHEASTERN
DELAWARE...CENTRAL SULLIVAN AND EAST CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL
1245 AM EDT...

At 1200 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Roscoe to near Fosterdale
to Narrowsburg. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rockland, Fallsburg, Liberty, Bethel, Damascus, Neversink, South
Fallsburg, Cochecton, Woodridge and Margaretville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 AM EDT for central New
York...and northeastern Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4175 7457 4173 7456 4157 7504 4160 7507
      4155 7511 4153 7517 4180 7502 4196 7502
      4210 7479 4222 7453 4220 7453 4217 7446
      4215 7450 4215 7453 4212 7456 4202 7478
      4188 7446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 232DEG 43KT 4201 7485 4173 7493 4159 7508

JRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1212 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

NYZ022>025-044-045-055-056-PAZ038-039-150515-
Steuben NY-Chemung NY-Chenango NY-Cortland NY-Schuyler NY-Tioga NY-
Broome NY-Tompkins NY-Susquehanna PA-Bradford PA-
1212 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...SOUTHEASTERN
SCHUYLER...WESTERN BROOME...CHEMUNG...SOUTHERN CORTLAND...TIOGA...
SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN...SOUTHERN TOMPKINS...WESTERN CHENANGO...
NORTHWESTERN SUSQUEHANNA AND NORTHERN BRADFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM
EDT...

At 1211 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Horseheads to near Millerton to Mansfield.
Movement was east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Chemung, Binghamton, Elmira, Vestal, Johnson City, Endicott,
Southport, Barton, Big Flats and Horseheads.

LAT...LON 4222 7697 4263 7565 4225 7570 4199 7594
      4177 7689 4200 7692 4200 7701
TIME...MOT...LOC 0411Z 249DEG 51KT 4216 7688 4193 7693 4179 7706

JRK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 AM EDT MON APR 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     TSTM WND GST     BINGHAMTON              42.10N  75.91W
04/15/2019  M60 MPH          BROOME             NY   MESONET

&&

HLC