Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
351 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move through the area this afternoon
through Wednesday bringing showers and thunderstorms. High
pressure builds into the region Thursday and Friday with drier
and cooler weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A severe thunderstorm watch continues until 9PM for much of
central New York and northeast Pennsylvania.

So far a couple of thunderstorms have produce damaging winds
with trees down. Convection continues to fire in the vicinity
of prefrontal trough and associated mid level short wave.
Moderately unstable airmass will keep activity going until
early evening when storms will decrease in intensity. Damaging
winds and brief heavy rain is the main concern with these
storms. Lack of deep layer shear and weak mid level lapse rates
will help to limit severe threat. By early evening mid level
wave and prefrontal trough will exit region and with loss of
diurnal heating much of the overnight period will be dry.
Overnight lows will range in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday...Surface cold front will drop south through the
region bringing more showers and thunderstorms. The best
instability and lift will be over the far southeast. Will
continue to mention likely POPs across northeast Pennsylvania
and the southern Catskills with just isolated to scattered
activity for the rest of central New York. Highs will range in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Wednesday night...Surface high pressure builds over the area
with skies becoming partly cloudy to mainly clear. Overnight
lows will range in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
245 pm update...
Very quiet weather conditions in the short term with high pressure
at the surface building across the Great Lakes...and a surface
boundary lingering across the mid-Atlantic region which may trigger
a few showers or weak storms over northeast PA Friday and Friday
night.

Upper level trough to the east will continue tracking off the coast
on Thursday with heights aloft rising and high pressure at the
surface building in from the west. The incoming air mass will also
be much drier, at least initially on Thursday with mostly sunny
skies and temperatures into the lower 80s.

A weak surface inverted trough sets up along the East Coast/mid
Atlantic region on Friday with increasing instability...which will
likely lead to scattered convective showers and storms that could
possibly bleed into ne PA during the afternoon and early evening
hours. Severe weather is not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 pm update...
Conditions on Saturday remain on the quiet side with generally dry
weather during the morning and some scattered afternoon/evening
showers and storms. There does not appear to be any real significant
forcing mechanism to generate strong thunderstorms, so should be
mainly showers and weak storms until close to sunset when the
boundary layer subsides and stabilizes.

A secondary upper wave will drop in from the north on Sunday, but
will once again be met with a relatively dry air mass and likely not
be able to produce much in the way of strong thunderstorms. The wave
will exit to the east late Sunday and heights will rise aloft behind
the system during the day Monday. This should keep most of the area
quiet early next week with generally mild temperatures...into the
lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A prefrontal trough will cross the terminals this afternoon with
thunderstorms expected. Included a 3 to 4 hour tempo group at
all terminals for MVFR thunderstorms along with strong gusty
winds. At KITH/KSYR/KELM the thunderstorms are expected between
18Z-21Z and at KRME/KBGM/KAVP the timing is 20Z-24Z. This
evening primarily VFR conditions are expected until 06Z-09Z when
MVFR/Alternate Required conditions are forecast due to stratus.
Conditions will return to VFR by mid morning with ceilings
around 4K feet.

Southwest winds at 5-10 knots with gusts to 20 knots this
afternoon. Winds becoming light and variable this evening then
northwest on Wednesday around 5 knots.

Outlook...
Wednesday afternoon...Brief restrictions possible at KAVP
in thunderstorms, otherwise VFR.

Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...RRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
435 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

NYZ009-018-023>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-
047-048-072-312045-
Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-
Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-
Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-
Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
435 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 545 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NYZ015>017-022-312045-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Steuben-
435 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will be likely. Some of the thunderstorms
could produce damaging winds and heavy downpours. Heavy rain may
result in localized small stream and urban flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
443 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

PAZ044-047-302115-
Luzerne PA-Lackawanna PA-
443 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...CENTRAL LACKAWANNA AND
NORTHEASTERN LUZERNE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 443 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wilkes-Barre, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Small hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Dunmore, Kingston, Plains, Old Forge,
Pittston, Archbald, Blakely and Taylor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
northeastern Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4117 7583 4129 7597 4155 7563 4133 7544
      4129 7544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 235DEG 21KT 4126 7582

JRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
445 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

NYZ057-302130-
Delaware NY-
445 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM EDT...

At 445 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Strong wind gusts will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Walton, Delhi, Davenport, Colchester, Kortright, Meredith, Hamden,
Meridale, East Meredith and Butts Corner.

LAT...LON 4213 7511 4227 7525 4245 7501 4245 7498
      4247 7497 4248 7496 4247 7493 4251 7484
      4251 7482 4233 7464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2045Z 233DEG 18KT 4225 7511

DJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
448 PM EDT TUE JUL 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CORTLAND                42.60N  76.18W
07/30/2019                   CORTLAND           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            A FEW TREES DOWN IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

&&

JML

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
451 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

PAZ047-302115-
Luzerne PA-
451 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...WESTERN LUZERNE
COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 450 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Berwick to Numidia. Movement was northeast at
25 mph.

Small hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wilkes-Barre, Muhlenberg, Berwick, Nanticoke, Plymouth, West
Hazleton, Larksville, Lehman, Ashley and Dorrance.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
northeastern Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4095 7621 4105 7623 4114 7623 4113 7627
      4118 7630 4134 7608 4130 7596 4112 7580
      4092 7610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 232DEG 20KT 4106 7624 4086 7641

JRK