Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS La Crosse, WI

158 
WWUS53 KARX 042329
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
629 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNC045-109-169-050000-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190605T0000Z/
Winona MN-Olmsted MN-Fillmore MN-
629 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN WINONA...SOUTHEASTERN OLMSTED AND NORTHEASTERN FILLMORE
COUNTIES...

At 627 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Altura to near Fountain, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. At 625 PM CDT, 70 mph wind gusts 
         were reported 4 miles west of Chatfield.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

These severe storms will be near...
  Altura around 635 PM CDT.
  Lewiston around 640 PM CDT.
  Rollingstone around 645 PM CDT.
  Stockton around 650 PM CDT.
  Goodview around 655 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Whitewater State Park, County Roads 9 And 10, County Roads 6 And 33,
Wyattville, County Roads 28 And 31, Utica and Peterson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4411 9233 4411 9208 4412 9208 4412 9174
      4377 9173 4377 9219 4398 9233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 276DEG 29KT 4408 9201 4373 9219 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

CA

651 
WWUS53 KARX 042354
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
654 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNC109-050003-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190605T0000Z/
Olmsted MN-
654 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OLMSTED COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4378 9212 4385 9208 4412 9208 4412 9174
      4377 9173
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 284DEG 31KT 4403 9173 4368 9191 

$$

MNC045-169-050000-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190605T0000Z/
Winona MN-Fillmore MN-
654 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN WINONA AND NORTHEASTERN FILLMORE COUNTIES...

At 653 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Stockton to near Lanesboro, moving east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. This storm has a history of 
         producing 70 mph wind gusts.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
western Winona and northeastern Fillmore Counties, including the
following locations... Saratoga, Whitewater State Park, County Roads
6 And 33, Elba, Wyattville, County Roads 28 And 31 and I 90 Exit 249.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4378 9212 4385 9208 4412 9208 4412 9174
      4377 9173
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 284DEG 31KT 4403 9173 4368 9191 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

CA

133 
WWUS53 KARX 050001
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
701 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNC045-169-050010-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-190605T0000Z/
Winona MN-Fillmore MN-
701 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN WINONA AND
NORTHEASTERN FILLMORE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
eastern Winona County and eastern Fillmore County.

LAT...LON 4378 9212 4385 9208 4412 9208 4412 9174
      4377 9173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 284DEG 31KT 4402 9169 4367 9187 

$$

CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
302 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Main short-term fcst concerns are SHRA/TSRA chances tonight and
potential of a severe threat with them.

18z data analysis had low pressure near the Man/MN border with a
cold front southward thru the eastern Dakotas. Locally, a strato-cu
deck covered much of the fcst area, left over from the SHRA/TSRA
this morning. These clouds holding temps down across much of the
fcst area. However elsewhere southerly flow ahead of the low/front
was pulling a warm, moist, unstable airmass northward into MN/IA/WI.
Main dew point/CAPE axis extended from western/central IA into
western MN. Convection across parts of W-C and NW MN ahead of the
front early this afternoon while the rest of MN/IA/WI was generally
precip free.

Model runs of 04.12z initialized well. Solutions similar (as the
synoptic scale) as a shortwave over the Dakotas early this afternoon
slides into MN this evening, then across WI/IA overnight/early Wed
morning, followed by rising hgts/ridging later Wed morning/
afternoon. However, plenty of meso-scale/convection differences
impacting the sensible weather outcome tonight. Short-term fcst
confidence is average to good this cycle.

Airmass continues to destabilize over the area this afternoon as the
S-SW lower level flow continues to pull a moisture plume into the
region. NAM/GFS still prog a 70F+ sfc dew point plume northward into
the area by 00z this evening, which continues to look too robust.
ECMWF/RAP with sfc dew points in the 60s look more reasonable based
on 18z obs and current state of crop development across the
mid/upper MS valley. Either way, model consensus builds a plume of
2K to 3K J/KG MUCAPE over the area for late this afternoon/early
this evening. However, 0-3KM and 0-6KM shear progged on the weak
side, 15-25kts in the 0-3KM layer, and 15-30kts in the 0-6KM layer.
The cold front and shortwave to move into MN this evening, providing
the forcing/lift to initiate convection in the airmass over the
area. All models initiating convection NW of the fcst area thru the
rest of the afternoon with this convection propagating SE
into/across most of the fcst area mainly during the mid evening into
overnight hours tonight. However, CAMs as well as NAM, GFS, GEM,
ECMWF all have a different evolution on the timing/coverage of the
convection as it would move SE across the fcst area. Enough CAPE for
pulse hail producing TSRA tonight, with potential for a wind threat
if storms can evolve into a complex and develop a line/bow echo of
storms. This the thinking for the enhanced severe storm risk across
portions of the fcst area near/north of I-94 tonight. (What stronger
0-3/0-6KM shear is progged tonight is across the northern portions
of the fcst area) See SWODY1 for more info on tonights severe risks.

Front goes thru very late tonight/early Wed morning with a switch to
NW winds, some drying of the lower levels and rising hgts aloft
behind the passing shortwave. After some small SHRA/TSRA chances
early Wed morning, a generally dry day expected. Even with some
cooling behind the front, mixed 925mb temps support the blend of
guidance highs mostly in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Wednesday night into Friday...The 04.12z GFS/NAM/ECMWF are in good
agreement in building ridge axis into the Upper Great Lakes Region.
Subsidence underneath the upper level/surface ridge will allow for
mostly sunny skies and dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be
near or slightly above normal...with highs rising into the 70s to lower
80s.

Main forecast concerns Friday night into Tuesday are precipitation
chances Sunday into Tuesday. Upper level ridge breaks down over
the Upper Great Lakes Region and upper level trough/closed low
slowly moves into the Ohio River Valley Sunday into Tuesday. The
forecast area remains on the northern periphery of the closed
upper low and provides small chances of showers and thunderstorms
mainly over the southern half of the forecast area. The 04.12z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM are in decent agreement in digging upper level
trough over the Northern Plains States/Upper Great Lakes region
Monday into Tuesday. This will produce periodic small chances of
showers/thunderstorms across the forecast area early next week.
With the upper closed low/upper level trough over the forecast
area for much of the period...temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal. 04.12z GFS/ECMWF suggest 925mb temperatures
to be in the plus 14 to plus 18 degrees celsius range through the
period and high temperatures are expected to climb mainly into
the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Good VFR expected at KRST thru the afternoon and early evening.
MVFR deck is looking to move out of the KLSE area by 20z with good
VFR thru the rest of the afternoon/early evening. By mid to late
evening an approaching front is expected to trigger a line of
SHRA/TSRA. Plenty of detail differences on timing/coverage of
SHRA/TSRA as the line would move across the taf sites. With
confidence in the details on the lower side, added VCTS/CB to the
KRST taf 03-06z and KLSE 04-07z for now. As timing details become
clearer this can be refined. Front goes thru around 12z Wed, with
winds becoming NW behind the front. Will have to watch for a period
of MVFR cigs behind the front Wed morning, but for now left any
lower deck sct as some weak subsidence should be moving into the
area.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...RRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
345 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

IAZ011-030-MNZ079-088-096-WIZ032-033-041-053-054-061-051100-
Allamakee-Clayton-Wabasha-Winona-Houston-Buffalo-Trempealeau-
La Crosse-Vernon-Crawford-Grant-
345 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for parts of northeast
Iowa...southeast Minnesota...and southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening. One round could
move through early to mid evening, while another may hit going
into the overnight hours. Storms would post a threat for damaging
winds, but could also bring brief heavy rains, lightning, and hail.

Flooding continues along portions of the Mississippi River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday morning.

A small chance of thunderstorms is forecast from Saturday night
through Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected.

Flooding will continue along portions of the Mississippi River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times this evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ086-087-094-095-WIZ017-029-034-042>044-
055-051100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Dodge-Olmsted-
Mower-Fillmore-Taylor-Clark-Jackson-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Richland-
345 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for parts of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight. The first threat
of storms will move in early this evening, while a second line
of storms could impact the area from late evening into the
overnight hours. While damaging winds will be the main expected
impact, storms will also bring a threat for brief heavy rain,
lightning, and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday morning.

A small chance of thunderstorms is forecast from Saturday night
through Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times this evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Shea

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
527 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             2 W KASSON              44.03N 92.79W
06/04/2019  E0.50 INCH       DODGE              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     DODGE CENTER            44.03N 92.85W
06/04/2019  M69 MPH          DODGE              MN   AWOS

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
558 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SW ROCHESTER          43.97N 92.53W
06/04/2019  E54 MPH          OLMSTED            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0557 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROCHESTER               44.01N 92.48W
06/04/2019  E60 MPH          OLMSTED            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT APACHE MALL

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
559 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S ORONOCO             44.13N 92.54W
06/04/2019  E60 MPH          OLMSTED            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
601 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSW ROCHESTER         43.99N 92.48W
06/04/2019  M54 MPH          OLMSTED            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0555 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW ROCHESTER          44.03N 92.50W
06/04/2019  M56 MPH          OLMSTED            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
604 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROCHESTER AIRPORT       43.91N 92.50W
06/04/2019  M60 MPH          OLMSTED            MN   ASOS

&&

SHEA