Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS La Crosse, WI

712 
WWUS53 KARX 042225
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
525 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNC157-042300-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190604T2300Z/
Wabasha MN-
525 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WABASHA COUNTY...

At 525 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of
Stockholm, or 12 miles west of Wabasha, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Wabasha around 545 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include South
Troy, Jarrett, Rattelsnake Point, Oak Center, Zumbro Falls, West
Albany and County Roads 33 And 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9255 4437 9243 4445 9243 4445 9224
      4444 9221 4440 9206 4437 9200 4419 9235
      4420 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 230DEG 28KT 4437 9230 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CA

916 
WWUS53 KARX 042245
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
545 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNC157-042300-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190604T2300Z/
Wabasha MN-
545 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WABASHA COUNTY...

At 545 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Plum City to near Mazeppa, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
northern Wabasha County, including the following locations... South
Troy, Jarrett, Rattelsnake Point, Oak Center, Zumbro Falls, West
Albany and County Roads 33 And 4.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 9255 4437 9243 4445 9243 4445 9224
      4444 9221 4440 9206 4437 9200 4419 9235
      4420 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 284DEG 24KT 4460 9225 4423 9252 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
302 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Main short-term fcst concerns are SHRA/TSRA chances tonight and
potential of a severe threat with them.

18z data analysis had low pressure near the Man/MN border with a
cold front southward thru the eastern Dakotas. Locally, a strato-cu
deck covered much of the fcst area, left over from the SHRA/TSRA
this morning. These clouds holding temps down across much of the
fcst area. However elsewhere southerly flow ahead of the low/front
was pulling a warm, moist, unstable airmass northward into MN/IA/WI.
Main dew point/CAPE axis extended from western/central IA into
western MN. Convection across parts of W-C and NW MN ahead of the
front early this afternoon while the rest of MN/IA/WI was generally
precip free.

Model runs of 04.12z initialized well. Solutions similar (as the
synoptic scale) as a shortwave over the Dakotas early this afternoon
slides into MN this evening, then across WI/IA overnight/early Wed
morning, followed by rising hgts/ridging later Wed morning/
afternoon. However, plenty of meso-scale/convection differences
impacting the sensible weather outcome tonight. Short-term fcst
confidence is average to good this cycle.

Airmass continues to destabilize over the area this afternoon as the
S-SW lower level flow continues to pull a moisture plume into the
region. NAM/GFS still prog a 70F+ sfc dew point plume northward into
the area by 00z this evening, which continues to look too robust.
ECMWF/RAP with sfc dew points in the 60s look more reasonable based
on 18z obs and current state of crop development across the
mid/upper MS valley. Either way, model consensus builds a plume of
2K to 3K J/KG MUCAPE over the area for late this afternoon/early
this evening. However, 0-3KM and 0-6KM shear progged on the weak
side, 15-25kts in the 0-3KM layer, and 15-30kts in the 0-6KM layer.
The cold front and shortwave to move into MN this evening, providing
the forcing/lift to initiate convection in the airmass over the
area. All models initiating convection NW of the fcst area thru the
rest of the afternoon with this convection propagating SE
into/across most of the fcst area mainly during the mid evening into
overnight hours tonight. However, CAMs as well as NAM, GFS, GEM,
ECMWF all have a different evolution on the timing/coverage of the
convection as it would move SE across the fcst area. Enough CAPE for
pulse hail producing TSRA tonight, with potential for a wind threat
if storms can evolve into a complex and develop a line/bow echo of
storms. This the thinking for the enhanced severe storm risk across
portions of the fcst area near/north of I-94 tonight. (What stronger
0-3/0-6KM shear is progged tonight is across the northern portions
of the fcst area) See SWODY1 for more info on tonights severe risks.

Front goes thru very late tonight/early Wed morning with a switch to
NW winds, some drying of the lower levels and rising hgts aloft
behind the passing shortwave. After some small SHRA/TSRA chances
early Wed morning, a generally dry day expected. Even with some
cooling behind the front, mixed 925mb temps support the blend of
guidance highs mostly in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Wednesday night into Friday...The 04.12z GFS/NAM/ECMWF are in good
agreement in building ridge axis into the Upper Great Lakes Region.
Subsidence underneath the upper level/surface ridge will allow for
mostly sunny skies and dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be
near or slightly above normal...with highs rising into the 70s to lower
80s.

Main forecast concerns Friday night into Tuesday are precipitation
chances Sunday into Tuesday. Upper level ridge breaks down over
the Upper Great Lakes Region and upper level trough/closed low
slowly moves into the Ohio River Valley Sunday into Tuesday. The
forecast area remains on the northern periphery of the closed
upper low and provides small chances of showers and thunderstorms
mainly over the southern half of the forecast area. The 04.12z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM are in decent agreement in digging upper level
trough over the Northern Plains States/Upper Great Lakes region
Monday into Tuesday. This will produce periodic small chances of
showers/thunderstorms across the forecast area early next week.
With the upper closed low/upper level trough over the forecast
area for much of the period...temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal. 04.12z GFS/ECMWF suggest 925mb temperatures
to be in the plus 14 to plus 18 degrees celsius range through the
period and high temperatures are expected to climb mainly into
the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

Good VFR expected at KRST thru the afternoon and early evening.
MVFR deck is looking to move out of the KLSE area by 20z with good
VFR thru the rest of the afternoon/early evening. By mid to late
evening an approaching front is expected to trigger a line of
SHRA/TSRA. Plenty of detail differences on timing/coverage of
SHRA/TSRA as the line would move across the taf sites. With
confidence in the details on the lower side, added VCTS/CB to the
KRST taf 03-06z and KLSE 04-07z for now. As timing details become
clearer this can be refined. Front goes thru around 12z Wed, with
winds becoming NW behind the front. Will have to watch for a period
of MVFR cigs behind the front Wed morning, but for now left any
lower deck sct as some weak subsidence should be moving into the
area.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...RRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
345 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

IAZ011-030-MNZ079-088-096-WIZ032-033-041-053-054-061-051100-
Allamakee-Clayton-Wabasha-Winona-Houston-Buffalo-Trempealeau-
La Crosse-Vernon-Crawford-Grant-
345 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for parts of northeast
Iowa...southeast Minnesota...and southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening. One round could
move through early to mid evening, while another may hit going
into the overnight hours. Storms would post a threat for damaging
winds, but could also bring brief heavy rains, lightning, and hail.

Flooding continues along portions of the Mississippi River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday morning.

A small chance of thunderstorms is forecast from Saturday night
through Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected.

Flooding will continue along portions of the Mississippi River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times this evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ086-087-094-095-WIZ017-029-034-042>044-
055-051100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Dodge-Olmsted-
Mower-Fillmore-Taylor-Clark-Jackson-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Richland-
345 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for parts of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight. The first threat
of storms will move in early this evening, while a second line
of storms could impact the area from late evening into the
overnight hours. While damaging winds will be the main expected
impact, storms will also bring a threat for brief heavy rain,
lightning, and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday morning.

A small chance of thunderstorms is forecast from Saturday night
through Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times this evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Shea

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
449 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             2 W KASSON              44.02N 92.79W
06/04/2019  E0.25 INCH       DODGE              MN   PUBLIC

            REPORTED PEA TO SMALLER THAN DIME SIZE.

0430 PM     HAIL             DODGE CENTER            44.03N 92.85W
06/04/2019  E0.88 INCH       DODGE              MN   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
457 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             DODGE CENTER            44.02N 92.84W
06/04/2019  E1.00 INCH       DODGE              MN   PUBLIC

            QUARTER-SIZE HAIL. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
505 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     HAIL             KASSON                  44.03N 92.75W
06/04/2019  E2.75 INCH       DODGE              MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0502 PM     HAIL             DODGE CENTER            44.03N 92.85W
06/04/2019  M2.00 INCH       DODGE              MN   PUBLIC

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
507 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             DODGE CENTER            44.03N 92.85W
06/04/2019  M2.50 INCH       DODGE              MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
509 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HAIL             KASSON                  44.03N 92.75W
06/04/2019  E1.50 INCH       DODGE              MN   PUBLIC

            PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

0502 PM     HAIL             DODGE CENTER            44.03N 92.85W
06/04/2019  M2.50 INCH       DODGE              MN   PUBLIC

0500 PM     HAIL             1 S KASSON              44.02N 92.75W
06/04/2019  E1.00 INCH       DODGE              MN   PUBLIC

            0.5 TO 1 INCH HAIL.

0455 PM     HAIL             DODGE CENTER            44.03N 92.85W
06/04/2019  M2.00 INCH       DODGE              MN   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
511 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

MNZ079-086>088-WIZ032-042330-
Wabasha-Olmsted-Dodge-Winona-Buffalo-
511 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...Severe Thunderstorms Expected This Evening...

At 5 PM, scattered thunderstorms producing gusty winds and large
hail were scattered across parts of southeast Minnesota, mainly
north of Interstate 90. Hail up to baseball size has been reported
along with torrential rain.

If you have outdoor plans this evening, be ready to move to a safe
place at a moments notice. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect
into the evening so more storms are expected.

LAT...LON 4420 9304 4419 9255 4437 9255 4437 9243
      4445 9243 4445 9224 4441 9208 4459 9202
      4459 9153 4425 9153 4421 9160 4417 9161
      4410 9154 4404 9157 4400 9144 4385 9128
      4385 9129 4383 9257 4385 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 240DEG 48KT 4399 9235

Shea