River Flood Warning 74, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
256 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Currently watching ongoing problematic heavy rain producing
thunderstorms lined up mainly along the I-90 corridor and just
south. CAMs show this convection eventually moving east of the area
by 7-8am as the LLJ bends further east and tapers.

Attention then turns to heat today and then enhanced severe threat
late this afternoon into tonight. A warm front will be lined up
approximately between the I-90/94 corridors. RAP showing 925mb
temperatures increasing into the 29-31C range by this afternoon with
partly to mostly sunny skies. This is expected to translate to highs
well into the 90s across much of the area along with uncomfortable
dewpoints in the 70s. Resulting heat indices will generally be in
the 100-105 range north of I-90, and 105-110 across portions of
northeast IA/far southwest WI. Will leave heat headlines alone as
they cover this well.

High heat and humidity (CAPE of 5000+ Kj/Kg) + warm frontal boundary
+ ample bulk shear (35-50kt) will lead to an enhanced risk of severe
thunderstorms by this evening into the overnight hours. All severe
threats (damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes) will potentially be
experienced as well as a flash flood risk if storms train over the
same area. The highest severe threat looks to be north of the I-90
corridor where that warm front will be hanging out. Will be
monitoring this situation closely!

Likelihood of thunderstorm continue into Saturday/Saturday night as a
mid-level trough crossing the Northern Plains begins to drive a
surface cold frontal boundary southward into the area. Will again
have to be situationally aware of severe/flash flooding threat as
there will still be plenty of cape and shear to work with.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Could still be a chance of shower/thunderstorms south of I-90 Sunday
morning as that cold frontal boundary sags slowly southward out of
the area. Otherwise, cooler/drier air filtering into the area as
Canadian high pressure builds into the region. Quiet/cooler weather
continues through Thursday as the Canadian high settles over the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Cigs: generally expecting VFR through the period, with more of a
scattering out toward morning on Friday. That said, a few models
suggest that MVFR cigs will develop mostly post the current
convection - and some hints of this. For now will hold mostly VFR
and adjust if needed.

WX/vsby: West-east running frontal boundary continues to serve as a
focus for shra/ts development with low level jet impinging/fueling
it. As the jet noses into southeast WI overnight, so should the
pcpn. Expect most to shift east/southeast of the TAF sites by 09z.

Could see another round of shra/ts overnight Friday night as the
current boundary pushes north on Friday, but then takes a turn back
south as a shortwave upper level trough tracks east across northern
portions of the region. Better chances could hold off until after
12z Sat.

Winds: mostly south and on the lighter side. Should increase for
Friday afternoon as sfc pressure gradient starts to tighten.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for WIZ054-061.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ032>034-041>044-
     053-055.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for WIZ029.

MN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for IAZ011-018-
     019-029-030.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ008>010.

&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...Rieck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
236 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

WIZ017-191200-
Taylor-
236 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible this evening into the
overnight hours. Damaging wind, large hail, and very heavy
rainfall with localized flooding will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Heat will be increasing through Friday with heat indices topping
off in the 95 to 100 range. This heat could bring on heat related
illnesses if precautions are not taken.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend.
Heavy rainfall could accompany these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. However, any
reports of heavy rainfall and flooding would be appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008>010-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ029-032>034-041>044-053-055-
191200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-
Fillmore-Houston-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-
Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Richland-
236 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...southeast Minnesota...southwest Wisconsin and west central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Heat Advisory remains in effect.

Heat indices will top out near 100, especially in areas that see
some peeks of sunshine. This heat could bring on heat related
illnesses if precautions are not taken.

Strong to severe storms are possible this evening into the
overnight hours. Damaging wind, large hail, and very heavy
rainfall with localized flooding will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A Heat Advisory remains in effect Friday. Plan on heat indices
topping off in the 95 to 105 range. This heat could bring on heat
related illnesses if precautions are not taken.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend.
Heavy rainfall could accompany these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ011-018-019-029-030-WIZ054-061-191200-
Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Clayton-Crawford-Grant-
236 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Iowa
and southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect.

Heat indices will top out near 105, especially in areas that see
some peeks of sunshine. This heat could bring on heat related
illnesses if precautions are not taken.

Strong to severe storms are possible this evening into the
overnight hours. Damaging wind, large hail, and very heavy
rainfall with localized flooding will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect Friday. Plan on heat
indices topping off in the 100 to 110 range. This heat could
bring on heat related illnesses if precautions are not taken.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend.
Heavy rainfall could accompany these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1213 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW WEST SALEM        43.90N 91.10W
07/19/2019  M2.44 INCH       LA CROSSE          WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

DAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1213 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

WIZ042>044-053-055-190615-
Juneau-Richland-Vernon-Adams-Monroe-
1213 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...

At 1213 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Elroy to 6 miles
west of Hillsboro to 8 miles south of La Farge. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

Winds gusts of 30 to 40 mph and heavy rain are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Richland Center, Mauston, New Lisbon, Elroy, Hillsboro, Wonewoc, La
Farge, Germantown, Glendale, Lemonweir, Rockbridge, Lindina, Viola,
Ithaca, Camp Douglas, Sylvan, Ontario, Liberty, Wilton and
Ridgeville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4364 8992 4364 9031 4355 9031 4355 9019
      4319 9020 4340 9067 4342 9067 4342 9074
      4351 9089 4370 9070 4396 9051 4390 8988
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 298DEG 24KT 4381 9038 4364 9046 4345 9063

Lee

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1218 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 N TOMAH               44.01N 90.50W
07/18/2019  E60 MPH          MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1218 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N TOMAH               44.01N 90.50W
07/18/2019  E60 MPH          MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1252 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E BARRE MILLS         43.83N 91.10W
07/18/2019                   LA CROSSE          WI   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF TREES DOWN BLOCKING NORTH BOUND
            LANE ON YY. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
232 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

MNZ087-088-096-WIZ041-042-053-055-191000-
Olmsted-Winona-Houston-La Crosse-Monroe-Vernon-Richland-
Including the cities of Rochester, Winona, Caledonia, La Crosse,
Sparta, Tomah, Viroqua, and Richland Center
232 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...Strong Storms Producing Heavy Rain...

Strong thunderstorms will continue to produce heavy rain across
the area into early Friday morning. Rainfall rates of 1 inch per
hour will be possible at times. In addition, wind gusts of 30 to
40 mph will be possible with the strongest storms. Those who live
in flood prone areas or near streams or creeks should be prepared
for rising water. Remember, never drive through flood waters. Turn
around, don't drown.

Lee