River Flood Warning 73, NWS La Crosse, WI

435 
WGUS83 KARX 191036
FLSARX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
536 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.Flooding occurring this morning from heavy rainfall.

River forecasts take into account both observed and forecast 
precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Do not drive cars into flooded areas. Remember, it only takes two 
feet of water to float most automobiles, including sport utility 
vehicles. Turn Around, Don't Drown!

Additional river and weather information is available at...
http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse .

&&

WIC081-123-200135-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0073.190719T1034Z-190720T1251Z/
/ONTW3.2.ER.190719T0854Z.190719T1400Z.190719T1851Z.NO/
536 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Kickapoo River at Ontario.
* until Saturday morning...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  4:00 AM Friday the stage was 16.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.8 feet this
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage today.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Flooding occurs along the river in the 
  Ontario area. Water may be over Highway P near Bridge 10, and also 
  over Winchell Valley Road at Bridge 8.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4381 9051 4368 9057 4368 9061 4382 9061

$$

541 
WGUS43 KARX 191122
FLWARX


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
622 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...Forecast flooding changed from Moderate to Major severity for the 
following rivers in Wisconsin...

  Kickapoo River at Ontario affecting Monroe and Vernon Counties

.Major flooding expected on the Kickapoo River at Ontario.

River forecasts take into account both observed and forecast 
precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

If you live in a threatened area, be alert for high or rising water, 
and be ready to move to higher ground if necessary. 

Do not drive cars into flooded areas. Remember, it only takes two 
feet of water to float most automobiles, including sport utility 
vehicles. Turn Around, Don't Drown!

Stay tuned to your favorite source of weather information, including 
NOAA Weather Radio, for later statements. 

Additional river and weather information is available at...
http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse .

&&

WIC081-123-192322-
/O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-190720T1251Z/
/ONTW3.3.ER.190719T0854Z.190719T1300Z.190719T1851Z.NO/
622 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Kickapoo River at Ontario.
* At  5:00 AM Friday the stage was 18.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 19.8 feet by this
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage later today.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Flooding occurs along the river in the 
  Ontario area. Water may be over Highway P near Bridge 10, and also 
  over Winchell Valley Road at Bridge 8.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4381 9051 4368 9057 4368 9061 4382 9061

$$

800 
WGUS83 KARX 191948
FLSARX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
248 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.The Kickapoo River at Ontario has fallen below flood stage.  As
a result, the flood warning has been cancelled.

River forecasts take into account both observed and forecast 
precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 

Do not drive cars into flooded areas. Remember, it only takes two 
feet of water to float most automobiles, including sport utility 
vehicles. Turn Around, Don't Drown!

Additional river and weather information is available at...
http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse .

&&

WIC081-123-192018-
/O.CAN.KARX.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-190720T1251Z/
/ONTW3.3.ER.190719T0854Z.190719T1230Z.190719T1730Z.NO/
248 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Kickapoo River at Ontario.
* At  1:00 PM Friday the stage was 14.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 12:30 PM Friday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 9.0 feet by Saturday 
  morning.


$$

LL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
100 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

Afternoon analysis showed a boundary draped across northern Iowa,
reinforced by morning convection. The boundary has continued slow
northward progress this afternoon as an effective warm front and
will likely serve as a focus for thunderstorms late this afternoon
and evening. In fact, a few showers have tried to get going just
west of the forecast area this afternoon where plenty of clearing
had been seen.

Across the forecast area, lots of cloud cover has prevented
temperatures from warming up as much as initially forecast. This
as also led to a pretty stout cap and lack of convection this
afternoon. With lack of strong upper level forcing, will likely
need to wait for a low level jet and moisture transport to ramp up
this evening to get any storms to fire over the forecast area.
Once they do, the environment is there for large hail and damaging
winds, with 3000-4000+ J/kg of MUCAPE and effective layer shear
around 45 kts or so...certainly good enough for supercells. That
said, still some questions as to whether they can become surface
based given the cloud cover all afternoon. Should some become
surface based, there would be a narrow window for a bit of a
tornado threat with a boundary in the area and increasing low
level shear with the low level jet. Storms should eventually
congeal and work southeastward as an MCS as the moisture transport
leans over and becomes more west/southwesterly, with the threat
shifting to flooding given the rain from last night and this
morning. Storms should move out of the area completely during the
early morning hours.

On Friday, the NAM and ECMWF continue to show that the 925 mb
temperatures will warm into the 27 to 30C range. The warmest air
will be found along and west of the Mississippi River. Would not
be overly surprised to see some places climb into the upper 90s.
Heat Indices will range from 100 to 110F. Due to this, little
chance has been made to the Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat
Warning. The only change was to add Clark County to the Advisory
for Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

From Friday night into Saturday, the cold front will move slowly
south and southeast through the area. The GFS is much faster with
its passage than either the NAM or ECMWF. With strong capping,
showers and storms will be found along and behind the front. The
shear will be sufficient for the development of some supercells on
Friday evening to the northwest of the area and this will
eventually evolve into a line. A few of these storms will be
strong to severe. The main severe weather threats will be large
hail and damaging winds. With precipitable water values between 2
and 2.5 inches and warm cloud layer depths up to 4.5 km, hourly
rainfall rates will likely range from 2 to 4 inches per hour. With
the slow motion of this line, we may have to eventually issue a
Flash Flood Watch.

With timing differences in the models on the cold front, opted to
keep the Excessive Heat Warning going through Saturday for parts
of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Cigs: generally expecting VFR through the period, with more of a
scattering out toward morning on Friday. That said, a few models
suggest that MVFR cigs will develop mostly post the current
convection - and some hints of this. For now will hold mostly VFR
and adjust if needed.

WX/vsby: West-east running frontal boundary continues to serve as a
focus for shra/ts development with low level jet impinging/fueling
it. As the jet noses into southeast WI overnight, so should the
pcpn. Expect most to shift east/southeast of the TAF sites by 09z.

Could see another round of shra/ts overnight Friday night as the
current boundary pushes north on Friday, but then takes a turn back
south as a shortwave upper level trough tracks east across northern
portions of the region. Better chances could hold off until after
12z Sat.

Winds: mostly south and on the lighter side. Should increase for
Friday afternoon as sfc pressure gradient starts to tighten.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for WIZ054-061.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for WIZ032>034-041>044-053-
     055.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for WIZ029.

MN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for IAZ011-018-
     019-029-030.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for IAZ008>010.

&&

SHORT TERM...CA/Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Rieck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
236 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

WIZ017-191200-
Taylor-
236 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible this evening into the
overnight hours. Damaging wind, large hail, and very heavy
rainfall with localized flooding will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Heat will be increasing through Friday with heat indices topping
off in the 95 to 100 range. This heat could bring on heat related
illnesses if precautions are not taken.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend.
Heavy rainfall could accompany these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. However, any
reports of heavy rainfall and flooding would be appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008>010-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ029-032>034-041>044-053-055-
191200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-
Fillmore-Houston-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-
Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Richland-
236 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...southeast Minnesota...southwest Wisconsin and west central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Heat Advisory remains in effect.

Heat indices will top out near 100, especially in areas that see
some peeks of sunshine. This heat could bring on heat related
illnesses if precautions are not taken.

Strong to severe storms are possible this evening into the
overnight hours. Damaging wind, large hail, and very heavy
rainfall with localized flooding will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A Heat Advisory remains in effect Friday. Plan on heat indices
topping off in the 95 to 105 range. This heat could bring on heat
related illnesses if precautions are not taken.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend.
Heavy rainfall could accompany these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ011-018-019-029-030-WIZ054-061-191200-
Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Clayton-Crawford-Grant-
236 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Iowa
and southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect.

Heat indices will top out near 105, especially in areas that see
some peeks of sunshine. This heat could bring on heat related
illnesses if precautions are not taken.

Strong to severe storms are possible this evening into the
overnight hours. Damaging wind, large hail, and very heavy
rainfall with localized flooding will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect Friday. Plan on heat
indices topping off in the 100 to 110 range. This heat could
bring on heat related illnesses if precautions are not taken.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend.
Heavy rainfall could accompany these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1213 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW WEST SALEM        43.90N 91.10W
07/19/2019  M2.44 INCH       LA CROSSE          WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

DAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1213 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

WIZ042>044-053-055-190615-
Juneau-Richland-Vernon-Adams-Monroe-
1213 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...

At 1213 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Elroy to 6 miles
west of Hillsboro to 8 miles south of La Farge. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

Winds gusts of 30 to 40 mph and heavy rain are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Richland Center, Mauston, New Lisbon, Elroy, Hillsboro, Wonewoc, La
Farge, Germantown, Glendale, Lemonweir, Rockbridge, Lindina, Viola,
Ithaca, Camp Douglas, Sylvan, Ontario, Liberty, Wilton and
Ridgeville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4364 8992 4364 9031 4355 9031 4355 9019
      4319 9020 4340 9067 4342 9067 4342 9074
      4351 9089 4370 9070 4396 9051 4390 8988
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 298DEG 24KT 4381 9038 4364 9046 4345 9063

Lee

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1218 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 N TOMAH               44.01N 90.50W
07/18/2019  E60 MPH          MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1218 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N TOMAH               44.01N 90.50W
07/18/2019  E60 MPH          MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1252 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E BARRE MILLS         43.83N 91.10W
07/18/2019                   LA CROSSE          WI   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF TREES DOWN BLOCKING NORTH BOUND
            LANE ON YY. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
232 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

MNZ087-088-096-WIZ041-042-053-055-191000-
Olmsted-Winona-Houston-La Crosse-Monroe-Vernon-Richland-
Including the cities of Rochester, Winona, Caledonia, La Crosse,
Sparta, Tomah, Viroqua, and Richland Center
232 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

...Strong Storms Producing Heavy Rain...

Strong thunderstorms will continue to produce heavy rain across
the area into early Friday morning. Rainfall rates of 1 inch per
hour will be possible at times. In addition, wind gusts of 30 to
40 mph will be possible with the strongest storms. Those who live
in flood prone areas or near streams or creeks should be prepared
for rising water. Remember, never drive through flood waters. Turn
around, don't drown.

Lee