Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS La Crosse, WI

814 
WGUS73 KARX 121111
FFSARX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
611 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

IAC043-WIC043-121121-
/O.CAN.KARX.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-190912T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clayton IA-Grant WI-
611 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL CLAYTON AND NORTHERN GRANT
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

Heavy rain has ended across the area. While flood waters are slowly 
receding, flash flooding no longer poses a threat. Please continue 
to heed any remaining road closures. 

LAT...LON 4277 9130 4296 9130 4301 9117 4299 9116
      4300 9113 4299 9106 4303 9097 4306 9094
      4308 9085 4311 9080 4312 9074 4317 9069
      4318 9061 4320 9058 4321 9054 4320 9043
      4302 9043

$$

Kurz

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
326 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

Currently watching a wing of showers and storms moving northward
across southeast MN/northeast IA into southwest WI. Very heavy
rainfall and train have prompted a few flash flood warning for
Clayton county in northeast IA and Grant county in far southwest
WI. This activity was along/ahead of an east to west warm front
across northern IA into northern IL...and was feeding off of
strong push of anomalously high moisture content air ahead of
deepening low pressure over Nebraska.

CAMs have this activity lifting northward across the area this
morning as that deepening/occluding low pressure moves north into
MN by this afternoon. Could see a lull in the showers/storms for a
brief time early this afternoon before the cold front from the low
swings northeast into the area by late this afternoon into this
evening. Warm sector gets pinched off somewhat today with higher
CAPE air confined more across IA into far southwest WI as the
front pushes in. To the north of the warm sector, expecting
temperatures mostly in the 60s with breezy east/southeast winds
while highs push into the mid 70s/near 80 across portions of
southeast MN/northeast IA/far southwest WI. This is where there
will be a threat of severe storms late this afternoon into this
evening with damaging winds and large hail being the main threat.
An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, heavy rainfall will be likely with any storms, and
with already nearly saturated soils, any additional heavy rainfall
could produce some flash flooding. Therefore, wen t ahead an
hoisted a flash flood watch through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

Deep low pressure will lift into Canada Friday with wrap around
cumulus/stratocumulus in colder/brisk cyclonic flow expected
across the area. Could also see a few showers across north
central WI. Otherwise, expect highs mainly in the 60s with brisk
westerly winds.

A brief respite Friday night into Saturday morning as high
pressure drifts through the region. Shower and thunderstorm
chances move back in Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as a
trough of low pressure moves east out of the Plains and across our
region.

Sunday into Tuesday look drier with a warming trend as a ridge of
high pressure amplifies across the central CONUS. Plan on highs
climbing through the 80s.

A few showers and storms may be seen Tuesday night into Wednesday
as moistening southwesterly flow aloft increases into our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

CIGS: cigs generally sub 1 kft (lifr/ifr) expected to hold through
Thu morning, with minor improvement as the day then wears on. May
not see significant improvement until Friday night as upper level
trough/low pulls northeast.

WX/vsby: shra/ts will lift north and bring a few hours of rain to
KRST/KLSE. Most of this activity is expected to move north by 12z
and could then see a break until later in the afternoon with another
round of storms moves in thanks to upper level trough/cold front.
Heavy rain likely with any storm - with MVFR/IFR vsby reductions.

Winds: sfc pressure gradient tightens early Thu morning and winds
will pickup as a result, shifting to the east by then. Could see
some higher gusts through the day with enhanced/stronger wind gusts
possible around any later day storm.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(This morning through Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect into tonight.

A couple more rounds of storms to get through...then some relief.
Warm air advective wing of showers/storms will lift northward
through the area this morning and then a strong cold front will
produce another line of storms this afternoon into tonight. Given
the pre-conditioned soils ripened for runoff and an anomalously
moist airmass, areas that receive heavy rainfall will be
susceptible to flash flooding along with rising river levels.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WIZ032-033-041-
     053>055-061.

     Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for WIZ017-029-034-
     042>044.

MN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MNZ079-086>088-
     094>096.

IA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for IAZ008>011-018-019-
     029-030.

&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...DAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
242 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-033-041-
053>055-061-131100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Buffalo-Trempealeau-La Crosse-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
242 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...southeast Minnesota...southwest Wisconsin and west central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Flash Flood Watch Through 1 AM Friday

A round of storms will move north through the area this morning
with another round of storms expected this afternoon into
tonight. Very heavy rainfall could accompany these storms with
flash flooding possible.

In addition, storms could become strong to severe this afternoon
into tonight with damaging winds and large hail being the main
threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.
Rainfall reports or any reports of flooding would also be
appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

WIZ017-029-034-042>044-131100-
Taylor-Clark-Jackson-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-
242 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
and north central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Flash Flood Watch Through 7 AM Friday

A round of storms will move north through the area this morning
with another round of storms expected this afternoon into
tonight. Very heavy rainfall could accompany these storms with
flash flooding possible.

In addition, storms could become strong this afternoon into
tonight with gusty winds and hail being the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Rainfall reports or any reports of flooding would also be
appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

das