Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
207 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Short term information is seen in the mesoscale updated below,
with a near repeat expected on Sunday. Thunderstorms will be in
the forecast for the rest of the afternoon and evening, with a
brief lull in the activity early Sunday. For tomorrow afternoon,
expect another round of strong to severe thunderstorms, with an
increased amount of instability and wind shear. So, we expect to
be once again dealing with additional severe thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon and evening.

Once the storms finish tomorrow, Memorial Day appears to look
pretty good, except for a small chance of thunderstorms in in the
far eastern Texas Panhandle. Most of Monday will be dry and windy,
with increasing southwest winds and warm temperatures. Middle part
of the week also looks relatively dry, with rain and thunderstorm
chances increasing again by Thursday.

Fox

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 121 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...

..Severe weather and heavy rain possible today...

* Synoptic Overview: Latest mid-level water vapor imagery reveals
  broad and relatively deep trough over the western third of the
  CONUS. This pattern will maintain southwest flow with very
  subtle perturbations, making it difficult to discern the areas
  of better lift in the mid/upper levels, especially given neutral
  height tendencies at H5. The visible channels indicate a
  cirrocumulus field crossing over the Texas Panhandle this
  morning which does suggest some upper level lift, most likely
  associated with right entrance region of 200mb jet streak
  stretched across the Oklahoma Panhandle up into Central Kansas.
  A 40 to 55 knot 500mb jet streak is also progged to shift east
  out of eastern NM this afternoon. More pronounced height falls
  are noted in near term model guidance at the 700mb level, with
  some indication of a minor trough axis. An EML noted in the 12z
  KAMA and KMAF RAOBs should be maintained resulting in very steep
  mid-level lapse rates throughout the day.

* Mesoscale: The dryline has retreated as far west as Roswell to
  Tucumcari, bending back northeast into southwest KS more as a
  stalled frontal boundary. Other more subtle boundaries likely
  exist from yesterdays convection (and potentially new outflow
  boundaries), but the initial focus for thunderstorm development
  will be along and east of the dryline, and along the stalled
  boundary near Texline to Elkhart, KS (which near term models
  suggest may lift further north as a quasi warm front this
  afternoon). The morning soundings at KAMA and KMAF showed a
  modest EML with 16 deg C warm nose around 775mb. Special 18z
  soundings at both sites suggested some warn nose cooling (down
  to around 15 deg C), but cap still present with MLCIN around 65
  J/kg. This sets up a "loaded gun" sounding considering the cap
  is weak and instability is moderate (MLCAPE ~2500 J/kg) and will
  likely increase to near 3500 J/kg as surface temperatures warm.
  If temperatures can warm to near 80 degrees, the cap will likely
  be breached, and any storms that develop will likely have very
  strong updrafts in a kinematic environment supporting 40 knots
  of deep layer bulk shear early on which is more than sufficient
  for supercells. Effective bulk shear is expected to increase to
  near 50 knots by late afternoon with enhanced mid level flow.
  Model hodographs become more impressive in the late afternoon
  and early evening in conjunction with a moderate low level jet.
  The 0-1km SRH is expected to increase into the 200 to 400
  m^2/s^2 range between 5 PM and 9 PM CDT. LCL heights are
  expected to be as low as 500m given BL moisture, with PWATs
  around 1.2 to 1.5 in.

* Threats: Discrete supercells capable of producing very large
  hail, possibly a few larger than baseballs, will be the main
  threat through about 5 PM. Strong winds associated with wet
  microburst and RFD is also possible, and may become more of a
  threat if storms can line out later in the evening before
  exiting our outlook area. A tornado threat increases during the
  late afternoon and early evening in addition to the hail/wind
  threat, favoring the eastern half of the Panhandles. If storms
  can remain discrete, streamwise vorticity will be maximized
  into the evening. A strong tornado can't be ruled out.

* Timing & Location: As of 17z, storms were already initiating
  east of the dryline nea Lovington, NM up to Clovis where lift
  associated with H7/H5 speed max is currently progged. These
  storms will likely move northeast into portion of the western
  and central Texas Panhandle through the early afternoon. Other
  storms will likely develop near the stalled boundary in the
  northwestern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma Panhandle
  later this afternoon. Mean storm motion is expected to be NNE at
  35 to 45 mph. However, directional shear will favor right moving
  supercells with a Bunkers Right Mover motion of NE at 25 to 35
  mph becoming more ENE by early evening.

* Summary: Large hail baseball size or larger and damaging wind
  gusts are possible in the western and central Texas Panhandle this
  afternoon. The hail and wind threat will shift into the eastern
  Panhandles this evening with an increasing tornado threat. Storms
  could also produce heavy rainfall, which would exacerbate flooding
  concerns in the eastern Panhandles.

Ward

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for the following zones:
     Collingsworth...Donley...Gray...Hemphill...Lipscomb...
     Ochiltree...Roberts...Wheeler.

OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for the following zones:
     Beaver.

&&

7/14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
337 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-261100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
337 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles. These storms will be capable of producing
hail up to baseball size or larger, damaging wind gusts up to 70
mph, and tornadoes. In addition, flooding concerns exist for the
eastern one-third of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles as heavy
rainfall is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles on Sunday and Sunday night, with large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes possible.

Thunderstorms are also possible on Monday night, and Wednesday
through Thursday across parts of the Panhandles. Chances for
thunderstorms increase to include all of the Panhandles Thursday
night and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely through tonight and again on Sunday.

Cockrell

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