Gale Warning 63, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
238 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...The active winter weather pattern has shifted to a
northerly outflow pattern. This has ushered storm force winds
into portions of Lynn Canal and gales over most of the N-S
orientated inner channels. This weather pattern will also support
high winds near downtown Juneau and Douglas through Saturday
morning. As of writing, wind gusts up to 69 mph have been detected
by the marine exchange sensor on top of the downtown Juneau
Library. Winds are expected to continue to increase through this
evening peaking sometime later tonight or early Saturday morning
before starting a gradual decline through the rest of of weekend.
As a whole, expect cooler overnight lows as clear skies persist
through the weekend.

Overall the existing forecast was well representative of expected
conditions so minimal change was made. One change was to increase
winds in southern Lynn Canal to storm force through early Saturday
morning. Forecast confidence is high through the weekend.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/...An extremely large upper
level blocking ridge will dominate the central gulf, nearly all of
the interior, and extend well north into the Beaufort Sea by the
start of this extended range forecast period. The descending
branch of the jet stream will draw cold upper level air from the
Northwest Territories across the Yukon & northern British
Columbia, and across Southeast Alaska. This branch of the jet will
shift south and east as the ridge develops a closed high over the
north gulf coast and re-orients slightly by Monday morning. As is
often the case with such large blocking features, it is highly
likely that this pattern will persist through the upcoming week.
With all meaningful jet energy being deflected around the
high/ridge and no surface lows in sight, the remainder of February
will almost certainly remain dry. In addition to the dry weather,
lower level offshore flow will clear out clouds and provide for
an extended period of sunny days and clear but cold nights.

The late winter fair weather will not be without some
inconvenience. Very strong surface high pressure over western
Canada will sag south as the low that brought the latest round of
rain and snow exists the area to the southeast. The result will be
a resumption of strong outflow winds over the inner channels
closest to the coast mountains. A surface reflection of the upper
high that will form over the northern gulf coast will aide the
large scale offshore flow. As a result, winds over Lynn canal have
been increased for Sunday and Sunday night. Outflow detail has
been increased in and around Taku Inlet, Tracy Arm, Port
Snettisham, and Endicott Arm as well. If the surface pressure
forecast remains consistent, additional increases to inner channel
winds Sunday through Monday night may be necessary.

Previous pressure forecast remains on track, with aforementioned
increases to wind speeds. Prior temperature forecast reasoning
seems solid, so only minor changes to temperatures were made.
Above average confidence in a dry, sunny week with temperatures
trending below normal.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until noon AKST Saturday for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind through Saturday afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ013.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-022-031>034-043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-041-042-051-053.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ052.

&&

JB/Fritsch

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
944 AM AKST FRI FEB 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     SNOW             YAKUTAT                 59.56N 139.76W
02/21/2019  M9.4 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL SNOW WITH 8 INCHES ON THE GROUND.

0230 PM     SNOW             HYDER                   55.98N 130.06W
02/21/2019  E4.3 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOWFALL SINCE STORM BEGAN EARLY AM 21 FEB.

0230 PM     SNOW             MONTANA CREEK           58.41N 134.60W
02/21/2019  E5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION

0300 PM     SNOW             1 ESE MONTANA CREEK     58.40N 134.57W
02/21/2019  M4.1 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH 19 INCHES SNOW ON GROUND.

0600 PM     SNOW             1 SW JUNEAU             58.29N 134.43W
02/21/2019  M6.2 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL SNOW AT WEST JUNEAU MEASURED AT 6 PM
            THURSDAY.

1159 PM     SNOW             13 NNW JUNEAU           58.47N 134.55W
02/21/2019  M6.6 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL AT WFO JUNEAU

0815 AM     SNOW             HYDER                   55.98N 130.06W
02/22/2019  M10.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL AS OF 8 AM

&&

KAV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
146 PM AKST FRI FEB 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST SSE JUNEAU              58.36N 134.58W
02/22/2019  M68.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            DETECTED AT THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU LIBRARY MARINE EXCHANGE
            SENSOR.

0113 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE JUNEAU            58.38N 134.12W
02/22/2019  M60.00 MPH                          AK   MESONET

            DETECTED AT THE AJ DOCK MARINE EX SENSOR.

&&

JBYRD