Gale Warning 62, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
456 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...The surface low from the winter storm that impacted
the panhandle yesterday is sliding southeast along the Prince of
Wales Island early Friday and then will continue south through the
Hecate Strait along the BC coast by early Saturday. As the low is
traveling south, a sharp wind shift to a northerly direction is
trailing the low through the panhandle with an increase in wind
speeds and an ending of the showers. By Friday afternoon the
showers are expected to be finished across the area.

High pressure in Northwest Canada and the Alaskan interior will
continue to tighten the pressure gradient along the coastal
ranges on the northern and northeast boarders last night and
through today. Cool and dry outflow winds are impacting the
northern zones of the panhandle. The flow pattern will be
establishing a Taku Mountain wave event for Juneau for Friday
evening into Saturday morning. Have upgraded the watch for high
winds to a warning this morning in expectations of the gusty
winds from the event. Expect the gusty winds in the outflow areas
of the Northeast Gulf Coast, Glacier Bay and Lynn Canal as well
today and tonight.

A blocking ridge feature is setting up over the central gulf and
extending north into the eastern Alaska Mainland. So expect the
dry weather from late Friday to continue through the weekend.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/...An extremely large upper
level blocking ridge will dominate the central gulf, nearly all of
the interior, and extend well north into the Beaufort Sea by the
start of this extended range forecast period. The descending
branch of the jet stream will draw cold upper level air from the
Northwest Territories across the Yukon & northern British
Columbia, and across Southeast Alaska. This branch of the jet will
shift south and east as the ridge develops a closed high over the
north gulf coast and re-orients slightly by Monday morning. As is
often the case with such large blocking features, it is highly
likely that this pattern will persist through the upcoming week.
With all meaningful jet energy being deflected around the
high/ridge and no surface lows in sight, the remainder of February
will almost certainly remain dry. In addition to the dry weather,
lower level offshore flow will clear out clouds and provide for
an extended period of sunny days and clear but cold nights.

The late Winter fair weather will not be without some
inconvenience. Very strong surface high pressure over western
Canada will sag south as the low that brought the latest round of
rain and snow exists the area to the southeast. The result will be
a resumption of strong outflow winds over the inner channels
closest to the coast mountains. A surface reflection of the upper
high that will form over the northern gulf coast will aide the
large scale offshore flow. As a result, winds over Lynn canal have
been increased for Sunday and Sunday night. Outflow detail has
been increased in and around Taku Inlet, Tracy Arm, Port
Snettisham, and Endicott Arm as well. If the surface pressure
forecast remains consistent, additional increases to inner channel winds
Sunday through Monday night may be necessary.

Previous pressure forecast remains on track, with aforementioned
increases to wind speeds. Prior temperature forecast reasoning
seems solid, so only minor changes to temperatures were made.
Above average confidence in a dry, sunny week with temperatures
trending below normal.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon AKST Saturday
     for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from 9 AM AKST this morning through late tonight for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-032-041-043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031-033-034-042-051>053.

&&

Bezenek/Fritsch

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
716 AM AKST FRI FEB 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     SNOW             YAKUTAT                 59.56N 139.76W
02/21/2019  M9.4 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL SNOW WITH 8 INCHES ON THE GROUND.

0230 PM     SNOW             HYDER                   55.98N 130.06W
02/21/2019  E4.3 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOWFALL SINCE STORM BEGAN EARLY AM 21 FEB.

0230 PM     SNOW             MONTANA CREEK           58.41N 134.60W
02/21/2019  E5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION

0300 PM     SNOW             1 ESE MONTANA CREEK     58.40N 134.57W
02/21/2019  M4.1 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH 19 INCHES SNOW ON GROUND.

0600 PM     SNOW             1 SW JUNEAU             58.29N 134.43W
02/21/2019  M6.2 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL SNOW AT WEST JUNEAU MEASURED AT 6 PM
            THURSDAY.

&&

JWA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
944 AM AKST FRI FEB 22 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     SNOW             YAKUTAT                 59.56N 139.76W
02/21/2019  M9.4 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL SNOW WITH 8 INCHES ON THE GROUND.

0230 PM     SNOW             HYDER                   55.98N 130.06W
02/21/2019  E4.3 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOWFALL SINCE STORM BEGAN EARLY AM 21 FEB.

0230 PM     SNOW             MONTANA CREEK           58.41N 134.60W
02/21/2019  E5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION

0300 PM     SNOW             1 ESE MONTANA CREEK     58.40N 134.57W
02/21/2019  M4.1 INCH                           AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WITH 19 INCHES SNOW ON GROUND.

0600 PM     SNOW             1 SW JUNEAU             58.29N 134.43W
02/21/2019  M6.2 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL SNOW AT WEST JUNEAU MEASURED AT 6 PM
            THURSDAY.

1159 PM     SNOW             13 NNW JUNEAU           58.47N 134.55W
02/21/2019  M6.6 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL AT WFO JUNEAU

0815 AM     SNOW             HYDER                   55.98N 130.06W
02/22/2019  M10.0 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL AS OF 8 AM

&&

KAV