Gale Warning 49, NWS Juneau, AK

742 
FZAK52 PAJK 140000
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
300 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-141800-
300 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low pressure system will continue to track southeast through
Thursday, ultimately tracking toward Washington State, while
northerly outflow gradually increases through Thursday. 

$$

PKZ041-141800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
300 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 12 ft.
Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. 

$$

PKZ042-141800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
300 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. 

$$

PKZ043-141800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
300 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas
9 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. 

$$

PKZ051-141800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
300 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain early in the evening. 
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt late. Seas 7 ft.
W swell late. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. 

$$

PKZ052-141800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
300 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell early in the evening
becoming W late. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. 

$$

177 
FZAK52 PAJK 141218
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-150630-
318 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Cold High pressure will build into the Yukon while a trough over
the panhandle gradually weakens into Friday. Strong northerly
outflow winds will continue through Fri.  

$$

PKZ041-150630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
318 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-150630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
318 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-150630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
318 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of Cross Sound. Seas 
11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of Cross Sound. Seas 
9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-150630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
318 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. Seas
9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing late. Higher gusts out of 
interior passes. Seas 8 ft subsiding late.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-150630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
318 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 8 ft subsiding in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt becoming W. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

100 
FZAK52 PAJK 150022
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
322 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-151830-
322 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A trough of low pressure over the Panhandle will weaken through
Saturday afternoon. High pressure over northwest Canada will 
continue to generate strong northerly outflow winds through 
Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-151830-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
322 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW late. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-151830-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
322 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming NW late. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-151830-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
322 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas
7 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-151830-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
322 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-151830-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
322 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...E gale to 40 kt becoming W 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 PM AKST Tue Feb 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...Expect a gradual change to a northerly outflow wind
pattern by mid week as a surface low pressure system tracks south
of Haida Gwaii and surface high pressure builds over the Yukon and
British Columbia.

Currently, a surface low pressure system sitting nearly stationary
over the northern gulf with its associated weather front pushing
inland over southeast Alaska. No significant impacts are expected
with this front tonight beyond some localized light snow. Tomorrow
becomes a bit more interesting as a second surface low tracks east
across the gulf through the day before diving south of Haida
Gwaii. This low has the potential to interact with the remaining
energy over the Panhandle to produce some enhanced precipitation
rates over the southern Panhandle on Wednesday. Currently the
forecast is carrying 2 to 3 inches of snowfall over 24 hours for
most of the southern Panhandle from Frederick Sound south.
However, PoPs remain lower further northeast. Greatest chances of
higher accumulations will be on Prince of Wales island and
possibly near the Ketchikan area.

As the surface circulation slides further to the southeast
between Wednesday and Thursday, expect northerly outflow winds to
increase. Currently forecast pressure gradients allow for strong
gales down Lynn Canal and strong winds in Skagway, Downtown
Haines, and Downtown Juneau on Thursday. There is potential for
the forecast winds to be trended upward on Thursday as well which
would introduce storm force winds and even higher seas into Lynn
Canal. As far as temperatures are concerned expect a cooling trend
through Friday.

Biggest changes to the existing forecast were the an upward trend
for Thursday's winds which added strong winds to Juneau, Haines,
and Skagway, and maximum strength gales for Lynn Canal.
Additionally, temperatures were trended downward through Friday
associated with the outflow pattern. Forecast confidence is
average through Wednesday night and above average Thursday.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday as of 10 pm Monday/ The
under cutting Wednesday gulf low will have moved into the
southeast AK gulf with increasing outflow winds early Thursday.
This low will weaken by Friday with an inverted trough forming
over the AK panhandle with high pressure over the gulf which will
still keep northerly winds over the inner channels. Dry weather
for Friday and Saturday before next potential system moves into
the NE gulf Sunday with a more active weather pattern developing.
Temperatures for this time frame still seasonable with cold
Canadian air being swept in with offshore flow. Larger diurnal
range toward the end of the week due to clear skies (day time
solar heating and night time radiational cooling) and most mid
level warm air remaining off shore.

Main weather impacts during this time will be maritime winds,
western portion of gulf and then outflow and northerly winds. May
see more freezing spray due to colder arctic air. But for now no
significant snow in the immediate future.

Models have been in fair agreement, especially depicting mid
level flow. Still some timing/location issues but overall higher
than normal confidence in model solutions this time of year.
Leaned toward operational GFS/ECMWF early on but little in the
way of changes needed. WPC used for the remainder of the long
range but once again little in the way of change as it has been
consistent compared to previous runs.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-043.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041-042-051-052.

&&

JB/PRB

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