Gale Warning 39, NWS Juneau, AK

810 
FZAK67 PAJK 140002
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
302 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-141815-
302 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A low pressure system will continue to track southeast through
Thursday, ultimately tracking toward Washington State, while
northerly outflow gradually increases through Thursday. 

$$

PKZ310-141815-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
302 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 14 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the
afternoon. W swell. Rain in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. W swell. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. 

$$

854 
FZAK67 PAJK 141218
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
318 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-150630-
318 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Cold High pressure will build into the Yukon while a trough over
the panhandle gradually weakens into Friday. Strong northerly
outflow winds will continue through Fri.  

$$

PKZ310-150630-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
318 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell in the evening. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 PM AKST Tue Feb 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...Expect a gradual change to a northerly outflow wind
pattern by mid week as a surface low pressure system tracks south
of Haida Gwaii and surface high pressure builds over the Yukon and
British Columbia.

Currently, a surface low pressure system sitting nearly stationary
over the northern gulf with its associated weather front pushing
inland over southeast Alaska. No significant impacts are expected
with this front tonight beyond some localized light snow. Tomorrow
becomes a bit more interesting as a second surface low tracks east
across the gulf through the day before diving south of Haida
Gwaii. This low has the potential to interact with the remaining
energy over the Panhandle to produce some enhanced precipitation
rates over the southern Panhandle on Wednesday. Currently the
forecast is carrying 2 to 3 inches of snowfall over 24 hours for
most of the southern Panhandle from Frederick Sound south.
However, PoPs remain lower further northeast. Greatest chances of
higher accumulations will be on Prince of Wales island and
possibly near the Ketchikan area.

As the surface circulation slides further to the southeast
between Wednesday and Thursday, expect northerly outflow winds to
increase. Currently forecast pressure gradients allow for strong
gales down Lynn Canal and strong winds in Skagway, Downtown
Haines, and Downtown Juneau on Thursday. There is potential for
the forecast winds to be trended upward on Thursday as well which
would introduce storm force winds and even higher seas into Lynn
Canal. As far as temperatures are concerned expect a cooling trend
through Friday.

Biggest changes to the existing forecast were the an upward trend
for Thursday's winds which added strong winds to Juneau, Haines,
and Skagway, and maximum strength gales for Lynn Canal.
Additionally, temperatures were trended downward through Friday
associated with the outflow pattern. Forecast confidence is
average through Wednesday night and above average Thursday.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday as of 10 pm Monday/ The
under cutting Wednesday gulf low will have moved into the
southeast AK gulf with increasing outflow winds early Thursday.
This low will weaken by Friday with an inverted trough forming
over the AK panhandle with high pressure over the gulf which will
still keep northerly winds over the inner channels. Dry weather
for Friday and Saturday before next potential system moves into
the NE gulf Sunday with a more active weather pattern developing.
Temperatures for this time frame still seasonable with cold
Canadian air being swept in with offshore flow. Larger diurnal
range toward the end of the week due to clear skies (day time
solar heating and night time radiational cooling) and most mid
level warm air remaining off shore.

Main weather impacts during this time will be maritime winds,
western portion of gulf and then outflow and northerly winds. May
see more freezing spray due to colder arctic air. But for now no
significant snow in the immediate future.

Models have been in fair agreement, especially depicting mid
level flow. Still some timing/location issues but overall higher
than normal confidence in model solutions this time of year.
Leaned toward operational GFS/ECMWF early on but little in the
way of changes needed. WPC used for the remainder of the long
range but once again little in the way of change as it has been
consistent compared to previous runs.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-043.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ041-042-051-052.

&&

JB/PRB

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