Winter Storm Warning 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
642 AM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The active weather pattern continues through the weekend as a
series of weather fronts move across northern Alaska, bringing
periods of heavy snow, mixed precipitation, and gusty winds.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a ridge axis extends from Banks Island south to
Mackenzie Bay across the Yukon Territory to Eagle to Cordova to
to the high anchored in the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge will flatten
out Saturday as a shortwave that is currently stretching across
the Gulf of Anadyr to St Lawrence Island to the Y-K Delta lifts
east northeast across northern Alaska. Ridging builds in across
the West Coast Friday night with the axis sliding east during the
day Saturday and the ridge amplifying as a strong low develops
over the western Bering Sea and moves into Siberia. A shortwave in
the long wave trough will move across the West Coast and Western
Interior Sunday, pushing across the North Slope, as well as the
Interior Monday and Monday night. At 850 mb, temperatures will be
cooling today across the North Slope and the Central and Eastern
Interior with the passage of the shortwave. Ahead of the next
shortwave that will move across the West Coast and Western
Interior Sunday, 850 mb temperatures will climb again, bringing
the possibility of a mixed precipitation with the system. Much
sharper and cooler air follows this shortwave with 850 mb temps
around -15C.

Surface...A 993 mb low located 150 NM northwest of Utqiagvik this
morning will lift northeast through the day to be a 993 mb low 450
NM northeast of Deadhorse this afternoon and into the high Arctic
by Saturday morning. As the low lifts northeast it will drag a
weather front with it, bringing snow and increased winds to the
North Slope.

A 954 mb low will move into the Western Bering Sea this morning,
deepening to 952 mb by this afternoon and weakening to a 974 mb
low near the Chukotsk Peninsula Saturday afternoon and a 1007 mb
low over the Chukotsk Peninsula Sunday morning. The weather front
associated with this low will move across the Y-K Delta and Seward
Peninsula Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, with a closed
developing near Scammon Bay late Saturday night moving to near
Kotzebue Sound by early Sunday morning and into the Beaufort Sea
Sunday afternoon as a 992 mb low 150 NM northwest of Wainwright.
The weather front will lift east northeast across the Interior and
North Slope Sunday into Monday.

Models...00Z model suite initialized well against the 00Z RAOBS
and the surface obs and remains in fairly good agreement with the
overall synoptic pattern into early next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Winds have briefly diminished along
the western Arctic Coast as a low north of Utqiagvik lifts
northeast. A weather front will move east this morning briefly
bringing winds back up and bringing a period of snow and blowing
snow. Have maintained the blizzard warnings out until noon for
zones 201 and 202 due to the development of a low west of Point
Hope this morning. This may tighten the gradient enough during the
period of falling snow to drop visibilities. To the east, stronger
winds will develop as the front moves eastward, bringing periods
of snow and blowing snow. The combination of a front moving north
of the Brooks Range and high pressure south of the range has led
to the development of a tight gradient across the range, with
strong southerly gusts near the passes causing blowing snow to
reduce visibilities to a quarter of a mile or less. Winds will
briefly diminish this morning, before restrengthening this
afternoon and dropping off early Saturday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior: Mixed precipitation continues
across the West Coast and Western Interior as a front continues to
move east across the region. The heaviest snowfall remains in the
upslope areas of zones 208 and 217, north of a line from Kiana to
Ambler, where an additional five to ten inches is possible
through Saturday. Temperatures remain warm across a large portion
of the area and rain has been observed at times. Temperatures
above freezing will prevent rain from freezing on elevated
surface, but rain will likely freeze on the frozen ground.
Precipitation will taper off west to east today. There will be a
brief quiet period tonight, with the next front moving onto the
coast Saturday and eastward Saturday night and Sunday. A mix of
precipitation is expected with this front as well.

Eastern and Central Interior: As the ridge axis slides eastward,
a front will move east across the Interior today and tonight,
bringing a round of precipitation to the region. Some warm air
remains in place this morning, so a light freezing rain mix is
possible as the front moves east today, generally in areas west
of Fairbanks. Expect temperatures to be cooling by the time precip
arrives in the Fairbanks area, resulting in snow, with
accumulations of one and a half to three inches in zone 222,
through tonight. The heaviest snowfall will continue to be in the
upslope areas in zones 218 and 219, with further accumulation of
five to seven inches through tonight. Gap winds in the Alaska
Range passes will diminish this morning. On Saturday, behind the
front, ridging will once again build in across the state, limiting
precipitation to areas generally west of a line from the Dalton
Highway to Tanana. The next front to impact the area will be
moving into the Central Interior late Saturday night, bringing
another chance of precipitation and another round of gap winds in
the Alaska Range passes.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ225.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ214.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ206.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ227.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ215-
PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

FEB 19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
105 PM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

AKZ222-090600-
Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester,
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika,
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
105 PM AKST Fri Feb 8 2019

...Slippery Roads Around Fairbanks...

Frost has developed on many area roads causing them to be more
slippery than normal due to recent warmer temperatures. Please
use caution while you travel around the area.