Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
348 AM AKST Sat Jan 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Cold wind chills giving way to warmer temperatures over much of
northern Alaska with a big pattern change to start the week.

The stratus and light snow or flurries over the Central and
Eastern Interior diminished yesterday evening allowing
temperatures to plummet with Fairbanks recording its first 40
below day of the cold season at 43 below and dropping to 44 below
this morning.

The interior and west coast continue to be cold this morning but
will begin to warm this evening as clouds and snow move into the
West Coast and Western Interior and as southerly winds over the
Alaska Range produce warming aloft over the Central and Eastern
Interior.

Winds aloft will continue to increase as an upper level ridge
builds over the Central and Eastern Interior from the southeast
into the weekend and early next week. A Wind Advisory has been
issued for Sunday morning through Sunday evening for the Eastern
Alaska Range with winds expected to just reach criteria with a
weak mountain wave developing over the Central and Eastern Alaska
Range. Dramatic temperature rises are expected along the northern
slopes of the Alaska Range as temperatures currently in the 30s
and 40s below zero will rise into the teens above by Sunday.
Expect large increases in temperatures over the southern interior
especially over the hills. Sharp inversions will develop over
valley locations in the southern interior with the warmer airmass
pushing over valleys where cold air will remain in place, but be
warmed by the warmer air aloft.

Cold wind chills continue along the West Coast and lower YK Delta
and will improve as clouds, snow and a warmer air mass moves north
ahead of a front moving north over YK Delta Sunday morning and
over the Seward Peninsula and Bering Strait Sunday afternoon. Low
visibility in snow and blowing snow are expected in these Sunday.
Ongoing Wind Chill Advisories south of the Seward Peninsula where
expanded to Winter Weather Advisories to cover both the cold wind
chills today and extended into Sunday to cover the snow and
blowing snow and low visibilities expected on Sunday. Continue to
monitor as winds and snow may combine to approach Blizzard
criteria on St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Sunday.

Very similar weather situation along the coastal areas of the
North slope with cold wind chills today evolving into low
visibilities in snow and blowing snow Sunday. Ongoing Wind Chill
Advisories along the coastal areas of the North Slope where
expanded to Winter Weather Advisories and extended into Sunday to
cover both the low wind chills and the low visibilities in snow
and blowing snow. The Arctic Coast will start warming slowly today
with high temperatures rising from the 30s and 40s below today
into the single digits below by Tuesday as clouds, snow and a
warmer airmass moves into the area.

The 12/00z model suite is in better agreement than previous runs
but continues to display considerable spread on the track and
strength of the low moving north out of the Northern Pacific into
the Southern Bering Sea on Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ217.

Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ212-
AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC JAN 19