Gale Warning 182, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
218 PM AKST Sun Dec 8 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will bring strong winds, snow, blowing
snow and freezing rain to the west coast Monday and Tuesday,
primarily to areas south of the Bering Strait. Strong southerly
gap winds are expected Monday in the Alaska Range, with a strong
easterly winds expected near Delta Junction.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Overall the models initialize well and are in generally good
agreement through the middle of the week. There are still some differences
in the track and placement of a strong low that will move move
through the Bering Sea Monday and Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior: A northward moving front will bring
snow to areas north of the Yukon River this evening, with an inch
or so of accumulation. Strong southerly flow aloft will develop
over the Alaska Range tonight. This will limit chances for
precipitation for for most of the Interior for the first part of
the workweek. The southerly flow will help to bring above normal
temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. Strong southerly gap winds
are expected near passes on the north side of the Alaska Range.
Gusts of 60 to 70 mph are exepcted with the strongest winds
expected from the Parks Highway west. Strong easterly Tanana
Valley Jet winds are expected to develop as well on Monday with
gusts up to 50 mph expected near Delta Junction. We opted to
issue a High Wind Warning for zone 225 and Wind Advisories for
zones 223 and 226. Northeasterly winds will develop elsewhere
across the Interior. We will likely see gusts up to 40 mph with
blowing snow over summits along the Dalton and Elliott Highways.
Monday afternoon into early Tuesday.

West Coast and Western Interior: Gusty southeasterly winds
continue will continue along this evening over St. Lawrence
Island and coastal areas south of the Bering Strait. These winds
may cause some minor rises in water levels along the coast of
Norton Sound this evening, generally up to two feet above the
normal high tide line. Winds will quickly become more
northeasterlyin direction after midnight as the next system
approaches. This system, a 960 mb low will move into Bristol Bay
from the south around midnight tonight. This low will move to the
northwest Monday into Tuesday. This low will bring strong winds,
snow, blowing snow and freezing rain to areas. Winds will begin to
increase early Monday morning, with strong winds continuing into
Tuesday. St. Lawrence Island and the Yukon Delta will likely see
gusts of 60 to 70 mph on Tuesday. Warm air is expected to push up
north with this system. Therefore, while we expect precipitation
to initially begin as snow, we expect a transition over to
freezing by noon on Monday. Precipitation will taper off for most
places along the coast Monday evening; however, strong winds will
persist after the precipitation ends, into Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Gusty easterly winds and blowing
snow continue will continue into this evening along the Beaufort
Sea Coast. Winds will die down late this evening as the strongest
winds push offshore. The pressure gradient will tighten up north
of the Brooks Range Monday evening. As the pressure gradient
tightens up, southerly gap winds with gusts up to 40 mph are
possible near passes on the north side of the Brooks Range. These
gap winds will persist into Tuesday evening. Another round of
gusty easterly winds and blowing snow is expected to begin Monday
evening and will persist into Tuesday evening.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The low moving through the
Bering Sea has the potential to bring elevated water levels to the
west coast on Tuesday. Right now there is still some disagreement
between the models how fast the low will track to the northwest.
If the low moves slower, it will allow for more time with winds
from a favorable direction to cause elevated waters. We will have
to continue to monitor this situation.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225-AKZ227.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-
AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

DEC 19