Gale Warning 112, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
500 AM AKDT Sun Oct 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation is filling in across the central and eastern
Interior and is expected to begin spilling north over the Brooks
Range by late this morning. Precipitation type will be tricky as
temperatures at the surface are generally near freezing for most
areas. Temperatures will continue to warm into Sunday afternoon
so regardless of the initial precipitation type, a changeover to
rain is expected for most areas south of the Brooks Range. Low
pressure will move up the West Coast this evening, causing strong
south winds, and further increasing temperatures along the
immediate coast. The associated front will sweep northeast across
the North Slope, drastically increasing temperatures and causing
mixed precipitation to fall later this evening into early Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft 500 mb...
A highly progressive, high amplitude longwave pattern features a
deep low centered southeast of Atka as well as a strong high into
the central north Pacific. Interaction between these systems is
causing the high amplitude nature of the pattern, resulting in
copious amounts of moisture being pumped north from the
subtropics. The ridge has remained stronger than anticipated,
which will force the low to track north into the Bering Sea this
afternoon. The low will track into the Chukchi Sea by late Sunday,
then merge with an Arctic shortwave Monday. The ridge will weaken
as its axis moves east into Canada Monday. This will allow the
longwave trough to broaden and initiate zonal flow across the
state by mid week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A weather front will push north through the Brooks Range this
morning, supporting widespread snowfall, particularly in southerly
upslope favored areas. Strong southerly winds gusting up to 4 mph
will also be likely through passes. As warm air streams
northward,a changeover to a wintery mix should occur by this
afternoon across lower elevations. Cold temperatures along the
coast this morning will warm quickly as the front approaches from
the south. Southerly downsloping winds north of the Brooks Range
will further enhance heating and cause snow to change quickly to
mixed precipitation by late this evening. Additionally, as the
front nears the coast, east winds will quickly ramp up to around
20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph across much of the immediate
coast.

West Coast and Western Interior...
The changeover to rain has already occurred across the Y-K Delta
and lower Yukon Valley and will continue to creep north and east
as warm air is pulled north. Snow will persist longest north of
the Seward Peninsula, with the greatest accumulation expected in
the higher terrain from Kiana to Ambler. The low responsible for
this messy winter weather will begin to track north along the
coast this evening, causing brief but strong southerly winds as it
passes. Gusts up to 50 mph are possible across the southern coast
and higher elevations of the Seward Peninsula by late tonight.
Peak winds will then reach Point Hope and Cape Lisburne with gusts
up to 60 mph by early Monday morning. Strong winds will also be
felt well inland, particularly across the Nulato Hills tonight,
and western Brooks Range Monday morning.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Strong downsloping should significantly limit precipitation
across the Tanana Valley, though showers are possible as Chinook
conditions continue to ramp up this morning. By afternoon, most of
the shower activity should be contained farther north across the
Yukon Flats and Brooks Range. The changeover will occur quickly as
precipitation rolls in, and ice could be an issue, particularly
across the Yukon Flats where temperatures have remained
consistently cold over the last few days. Lastly, southerly gap
winds will remain a long duration event and could persist into
Tuesday. The strongest winds will occur generally this afternoon
through Monday morning and could at times exceed 70 mph through
Isabel and Windy Passes.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong south winds will
accompany the low as it moves up the West Coast this afternoon
into the Chukchi Sea by Monday morning. Winds will be strong but
brief, and may result in some elevated surf, but no coastal
flooding issues. As the low continues north and east by mid week,
west winds on the southern flank of the system may cause some
issues along the coast from Utqiagvik west.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning for AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ216-AKZ227.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ222.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

COWMAN OCT 19