Blizzard Warning 14, NWS Fairbanks, AK

008 
WWAK41 PAFG 111236
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
436 AM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019


AKZ202-203-111345-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0060.000000T0000Z-190311T1400Z/
Northern Arctic Coast-Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Utqiagvik, Alaktak, Pitt Point, Nulavik, Nuiqsut, 
Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
436 AM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...



$$

AKZ204-111345-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0060.000000T0000Z-190312T0200Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
436 AM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

AKZ201-112000-
/O.EXT.PAFG.BZ.W.0014.000000T0000Z-190311T2000Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
436 AM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions occurring. Travel will be very
  difficult.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast. The worst conditions are south of
  Wainwright. 

* WHEN...Until noon today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Northeast winds gusting to 40 mph will 
  cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant drifting 
  of the snow is likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult. 

$$

740 
WWAK41 PAFG 111751
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
951 AM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019



AKZ201-111900-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0014.000000T0000Z-190311T2000Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright, Atqasuk, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
951 AM AKDT Mon Mar 11 2019

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Snowfall and winds have diminished, and visibility has improved.
Therefore, the blizzard warning has been cancelled.

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
700 AM AKDT Sun Mar 10 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A very strong storm over Kuskokwim Bay will move north to near
Unalakleet by Mon PM, then move east Mon night and Tue. This storm
is bringing snow and blowing snow to much of the West Coast and
Western Interior today through Mon, with snow spreading east
across the Interior Mon night and Tue. Also due to this storm, strong
north winds and near Blizzard Conditions are occuring in the
Bering Strait and over NW Alaska, and these conditions are
expected to continue into Tue AM. Strong southerly Chinook winds
across the Alaska Range are causing very warm and windy conditions
across the SE Interior, which will gradually moderate through
Mon as the storm weakens and then end Mon night as the storm moves
east.

Aloft...
A deep long wave trough extending from the North Pole south over
the Bering Sea and Western Alaska will progress east over mainland
AK today as a strong short wave moves NE across Alaska. The
trough will retrograde Tue and Wed as a long wave ridge build
back over Mainland AK. What this means is that strong south flow
aloft over Northern AK will decrease and become SW Mon and Tue,
then become southerly again by the middle of the week.

Surface...
A 1015 mb high centered over the Northern Chukchi Sea will build
through Tue.

A 988 MB low over MacKenzie Bay will deepen in place to 982 mb by
3am Mon, then move east. This will cause NE winds over the Eastern
Arctic Coast to increase through tonight, and cause blowing snow
and low vsby to develop over zone 204 tonight.

An arctic cold front extending from this low west Along the
Brooks range to Kivalina to Savoonga will persist in place through
tonight and then move south and east across the Interior Mon and
Tue. Snow and blowing snow is occurring along and north of this
front, along with NE winds 20-30kt along the Arctic Coast. This is
causing low vsby in blowing snow over zone 201 and could spread to
zone 202 today, but since 202 is on the northern edge of the
falling snow, this may not occur there.

Strong north winds of 40 kt and low visibility in blowing snow
will develop over most of the Brooks range late tonight on Mon as
this front moves south.

A very strong low in the southeast Bering Sea will move to the
Kuskokwim Delta as a 967 mb low by 4PM Sun, then to near
Unalakleet as a 985 mb low by 4PM Mon, then move inland to near
Bettles on Tue. This is causing snow over most of the West Coast
and Western Interior now that will continue off and on through Mon
night. The low level SE flow ahead of the low has pushed surface
temperatures above freezing in much of the areas SE of Nome to
Huslia to Eagle now, and will bring possible rain to the areas
that get precip through Mon, with zones 214 215 and 216 having
rain likely through tonight. Expect another 2-4 inches of snow in
the West Coast and Western Interior through Mon, and could see 2-3
inches across the Central and Eastern Interior Mon night and Tue.
Zones 216 218 and 219 could see 4-8 inches Mon night and Tue, but
uncertain at this time.

A second strong low will move north into the southeast Bering Sea
Mon night and Tue. This will keep north winds blowing along the
West Coast Tue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft and show similar solutions through
Mon, with slight differences showing up mid-week. Models differ on
precipitation field, where the NAM show much less areal coverage
of precip in NW AK than the GFS and ECMF for today and tonight.
Favor that broader areal coverage of the GFS in NW AK today and
tonight as that is verifying better with what is now occuring. By
Mon and Tue precip fields are more similar between models.

At the surface, at 06Z all models initialize 4-8 mb too weak on
the surface low in MacKenzie Bay, and a few mb too weak on the low
in Bristol Bay. Expect low in MacKenzie Bay to remain stronger
than models indicate through Mon, so will nee to add 5kt to winds
winds shown by models over the eastern North Slope through Mon. On
the West Coast, expect the low to remain a few mb stronger than
models indicate through Mon so winds along the West Coast will
remain 3-5 kt stronger than models indicate through Mon. Models
show similar solution at the surface through Mon, with slight
differences showing up on location and strength of lows by mid-
week. At this point will use GFS for locations switching to
ensemble locations by mid-week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Strong north winds continuing through Tue. this should cause ice
to reform many areas.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226-AKZ227.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ204-AKZ207-AKZ208-
AKZ209-AKZ212-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB MAR 19