Storm Warning 99, NWS Anchorage, AK

701 
FZAK51 PAFC 161212
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-170315-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 975 mb low 100 nm southeast of Sitkinak will move inland over 
the Alaska Peninsula Sat night. A 985 mb Pacific low will move to
150 nm southeast of Sitkinak Sun morning then it will move to 60 
nm southeast of Kodiak City at 989 mb Sun night. The low will then
move inland over the Kenai Peninsula Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ119-170315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt this morning. Seas 22 ft. 
Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ120-170315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ121-170315-
Resurrection Bay-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind to 15 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 3 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head. Rain. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head.
Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-170315-
Prince William Sound-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt this morning. Winds
briefly gusting to 55 ft near Hinchinbrook Entrance this morning.
Seas building to 9 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt near Hinchinbrook Entrance in
the late afternoon.  Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-170315-
Port Valdez-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-170315-
Valdez Narrows-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-170315-
Valdez Arm-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-170315-
Passage Canal-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-170315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 13 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-170315-
Barren Islands East-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt early shifting to SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-170315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt early becoming S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-170315-
Chiniak Bay-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-170315-
Marmot Bay-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. 
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-170315-
Shelikof Strait-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 8 ft in the
afternoon. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-170315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft  subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-170315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters building to 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-170315-
Kachemak Bay-
412 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

155 
FZAK51 PAFC 162343
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-171300-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the western Gulf moves into the northeast Gulf coast
by Sun afternoon. A 981 mb North Pacific low moves to 155 nm 
south of Akhiok by Sun afternoon and then moves over Kodiak 
Island at 985 mb by Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ119-171300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-171300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-171300-
Resurrection Bay-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head. 
Rain.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head. Widespread rain 
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head. Widespread rain
showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-171300-
Prince William Sound-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Gusts to 50 kt near Hinchinbrook Entrance. 
Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-171300-
Port Valdez-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-171300-
Valdez Narrows-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-171300-
Valdez Arm-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-171300-
Passage Canal-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-171300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-171300-
Barren Islands East-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-171300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt N of Dangerous Cape. S of Dangerous Cape, 
Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-171300-
Chiniak Bay-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-171300-
Marmot Bay-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-171300-
Shelikof Strait-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt S of Cape Kuliak. N of Cape Kuliak, SE wind
25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-171300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-171300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-171300-
Kachemak Bay-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

There is a large vertically stacked low in the southwest Gulf that
is moving slowly northward. The leading front is situated along
the north Gulf coast, with gale to storm force winds over much of
the northern Gulf. There is also a significant amount of
precipitation occurring along the coast and coastal mountains.
The air mass is fairly warm and precipitation is generally in the
form of rain near sea level. For inland areas, there is strong
easterly gap flow and down-slope drying with very little
precipitation. Further west, there is a low in the northern Bering
and another in the western Bering. There is slightly cyclonic
westerly flow aloft over the southern Bering, with showers are
occurring. Most of these showers are in the form of snow with
fairly cold air over the area.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical models are in good agreement through Saturday night.
On Sunday, the models agree that there will be another low
approaching the Gulf from the south, but differ somewhat on the
timing and path. It looks like the Nam is the outlier, with one
consolidated low while the other models split it into two lows
that are north and south of each other.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Wind shear is expected at the
airport, with north winds at the surface and east winds aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
(Tonight through Sunday evening)

The next in a series of low pressure system and fronts is
currently making its way north towards the region. A ~975 mb low
will reach the southwest Gulf tonight with a front training to its
east. Sustained gale force winds and widespread precipitation
will precede the frontal arrival, with storm force winds possible
from near Cordova eastward. The low will tend weaken to ~983 mb
over Shelikof Straight tomorrow afternoon, with the associated
front having reaching the Gulf coast. Some locally heavy rainfall
will develop for the coastal mountains, with heavy mountains snow
likely, as the snow level looks to be around 1000 feet. Increasing
sustained winds look to top out in the 45 to 60 mph range for the
upper Hillside of Anchorage, Turnagain Arm, and across the
Chugach mountains. Some fairly strong gusts up to 70 mph will also
occur for these area as well. Locations west and north of the
Chugach Range will likely see down-slope effects, with just a few
sprinkles or flurries expected. Winds will switch around to the
south to southwest following frontal passage, with some breezy
conditions continuing, but not to the extent as tonight.

Both of these features will largely weaken as they exit the area
Saturday night, but, another low moves into the Gulf for Sunday,
with a renewed surge of moisture heading for Southcentral.
Temperatures should also rise through the period, given the
southerly fetch of warm air and moisture aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Tonight
through Sunday afternoon)...

A decaying North Pacific low continues to move northward toward
the Gulf of Alaska. Its associated front will continue to lift
inland over the AKPEN and into Southwest Alaska from east to west
through the evening. Strong northwesterly winds on the back side
of the low will become channeled through the usual gaps and
passes along the southern AKPEN. This front will also generate
precipitation across Southwest beginning over the AKPEN, and
spreading westward across Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley and
into the Kuskokwim Delta. By Saturday, the front interacts with
an upper level low originating from over the central Bering that
moves eastward over Southwest.

One challenging factor with this forecast was determining the
rain/snow line. As the front tracks westward, precipitation will
transition to rain from east to west. However, the incoming upper
level Bering low stifles the westward progression of the (now
very weak) front by Saturday afternoon. This will effectively
inhibit warm air from reaching west of Dillingham, keeping
precipitation in areas such as Togiak, Platinum, Quinhagak, and
Bethel all snow.

Precipitation will retreat back eastward Saturday night through
Sunday as the Gulf low opens into a trough, allowing the Bering
trough to track eastward into coastal Southwest. Colder air will
accompany the trough leading to a transition back to all snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Tonight
through Sunday afternoon)...

An unstable convective pattern continues across the Bering for the
weekend. An upper level low over the northern Bering will move to
the central Bering by Saturday morning. This will generate gusty
northwesterly winds over the western and central Bering for
Saturday afternoon. A brief period of snowfall is also expected
over the Pribilofs Saturday afternoon as the low moves through.
On the backside of the low, cold air advection will continue and
a generally showery regime will remain over the Bering through
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday Night through Wednesday)...

Minimal changes are expected in the overall flow pattern in the
next 3 to 5 days. The weather in the Bering will remain relatively
quiet, while Gale force fronts and low pressure systems will
continue to periodically lift north into the Gulf. While models
are still not in great agreement regarding the timing and track of
individual features, confidence is good the general persistence
of the large scale pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Sunday through Friday)...

The weather pattern for the long term sees little shift with
continued troughing over the Bering Sea and southerly flow through
Southcentral AK. This means continued weak flow and quiet weather
for the Bering Sea; Southcentral AK will continue to receive low
pressure systems every few days. As a result, the warm and wet
pattern will be sustained over southcentral AK for the foreseeable
future. Models hint at a larger low developing in the Gulf of
Alaska late next week. However, there is little agreement by this
time in the long term so we will have to wait and see what develops.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 120 125 129 130 131 139 155 351.
         Storm Warning 119.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO/SEB
MARINE/LONG TERM...BB