Gale Warning 258, NWS Anchorage, AK

956 
FZAK51 PAFC 170717 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

Updated Zone 129

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of 
Alaska Coast up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook 
Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-172015-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the western Gulf moves into the northeast Gulf coast
by Sun afternoon. A 981 mb North Pacific low moves to 155 nm 
south of Akhiok by Sun afternoon and then moves over Kodiak 
Island at 985 mb by Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ119-172015-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ120-172015-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.SUN...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ121-172015-
Resurrection Bay-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head.
 Rain. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head. Widespread
rain  showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher seas S of Caines Head. Widespread
rain showers. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-172015-
Prince William Sound-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.SUN...SE wind 40 kt. Gusts to 50 kt near Hinchinbrook Entrance. 
Seas 9 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-172015-
Port Valdez-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas
2 ft.  Rain. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-172015-
Valdez Narrows-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-172015-
Valdez Arm-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-172015-
Passage Canal-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-172015-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.  Seas
8 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 6 ft. Rain with snow. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-172015-
Barren Islands East-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ132-172015-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt N of Dangerous Cape. S of Dangerous
Cape,  Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 25 kt after
midnight.  Seas 13 ft. Rain. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-172015-
Chiniak Bay-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Widespread rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight.  Seas
4 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-172015-
Marmot Bay-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-172015-
Shelikof Strait-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt S of Cape Kuliak. N of Cape Kuliak, SE
wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-172015-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight.  Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-172015-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon.  Seas in
ice free waters 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon.  Rain and
snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Rain. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-172015-
Kachemak Bay-
1117 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight. Rain. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

473 
FZAK51 PAFC 171158
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-180100-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A front in the northern Gulf will dissipate tonight. A 980 mb 
Pacific low will move to 130 nm southeast of Sitkinak this afternoon
then move near the Barren Islands at 992 mb Mon morning. The low 
will then move inland Mon night. 

$$

PKZ119-180100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt this morning. Seas 16 ft
building to 24 ft.  Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas subsiding to 14 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ120-180100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt early becoming E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft early
building to 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-180100-
Resurrection Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt shifting to S late this afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Higher seas S of Caines Head. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft.
Higher seas S of Caines Head. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-180100-
Prince William Sound-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt near Hinchinbrook Entrance. 
Seas 7 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-180100-
Port Valdez-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-180100-
Valdez Narrows-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-180100-
Valdez Arm-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-180100-
Passage Canal-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-180100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt early becoming NE wind 35 kt. Seas building to 12
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-180100-
Barren Islands East-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ132-180100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ136-180100-
Chiniak Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-180100-
Marmot Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-180100-
Shelikof Strait-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt early becoming N wind 30 kt. Seas
building to 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-180100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-180100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice
free waters 3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ141-180100-
Kachemak Bay-
358 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
502 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A shortwave in the northern Bering Sea is moving southeastward
toward the eastern Aleutians this morning. This shortwave has
little upper level support as the jet stream remains meridional
and well south of the Aleutian chain at 30,000 ft. The main
weather maker today is a vertically stacked low that sits just
south of Kodiak Island. Cold air is wrapping around the backside
of the low, pushing over the Bering and Aleutian Chain. In
contrast, southerly flow from the Pacific is ushering in warm and
moist air over the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral.

At the surface, a warm front is butting up against the northern
Gulf Coast and is draped over the western Gulf. In the northern
Gulf, a barrier jet has formed with east-southeasterly winds.
Through the marine waters, winds up to 50 kts are being reported
in the northern Gulf in areas around Middleton Island and Prince
William Sound. Gusty conditions continue through the typical
favored passes, northern coastline areas like Cordova, and
Turnagain Arm. Precipitation (mainly in the form of rain) is
widespread in coastal areas while areas west of the Chugach
mountains are dry due to downsloping. Radar imagery also depicts
precipitation falling through Bristol Bay, the AK-Pen and
Kuskokwim Delta along a deformation band.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...Models remain in rather good agreement with
just about all major features through the weekend. The result in
moderate to high forecast confidence. The few detail items we are
tracking are the exact location of the deformation axis over
Southwest AK and the exact height of the snow levels across the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula/Western Prince William Sound. Generally,
the NAMNest was preferred with this package for higher resolution
details.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC... Weak northwest to west winds at the surface will allow for
wind shear to persist this morning. Southeasterly winds will
develop at all levels this afternoon as the warm front in the
northern Gulf moves inland. Timing of the wind shift should be
close to 00z or slightly thereafter. Downsloping will keep the
airport VFR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Today and Sunday)...

The active pattern continues as a series of surface lows and
fronts drive north across the Gulf. The first of the fronts will
make landfall over the North Gulf Coast this morning then move
inland this afternoon. Storm force easterly winds over marine
waters will weaken through this morning. Strong gap flows from
Portage Valley to western Turnagain Arm will peak this morning.
Pressure rises on the backside of the front as it moves inland
this afternoon will give rise to gusty southerly winds across the
Anchorage Bowl, Knik Valley, and over the Copper River Basin.
These winds should slowly diminish overnight tonight. Turnagain
Arm to Portage Valley winds will remain fairly strong and gusty
and perhaps see an uptick this evening as the surface low heads
north over the western Gulf. The next front heading north Sunday
will help to keep the Turnagain Arm winds going, as well as,
strengthening marine winds along the North Gulf coast.

As with the previous frontal systems, the brunt of the
precipitation will be confined to the Gulf coasts and should be
generally rain with snow levels in the 1800-2500 ft range through
tonight. Strong cross-barrier flow over the coastal mountains
will mitigate precipitation inland. The exception would be
potential for rain and snow for the Southern Copper River Basin
with next front on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Sat and Sun)...
The area will be split into 2 regimes for much of the weekend.
Over the eastern half, southwest winds associated with lows in the
Gulf of Alaska will push through the AK and Aleutian Ranges. These
winds will also aid in ushering in some warm air and plenty of
moisture. 850mb (5,000') temperatures will climb to near 0 degrees
Celsius near places like Iliamna through the day. This will cause
precipitation that does make it to fall as mostly rain. Now it
will be a different story over the Western Capes and much of the
YK-Delta where cold air is intruding from the Bering. A fairly
vigorous shortwave over the Eastern Bering will push in plenty of
cold air with west to northwest winds. In between these two
systems, a deformation axis is taking shape. This will be the key
feature for weather impacts through the weekend as we expect
accumulation snow to accompany it. The band will shift west early
today and center near Bethel. But by this evening, it will drift
back to the east near Aniak and Sleetmute. Several inches of snow
accumulation are possible depending on where the band lingers the
longest, but we do expect amounts to remain below advisory level.

On Sun, the shortwave from the Bering pushes further inland over
SW AK. The net effect will be to drive cold and drier air through
much of the area. But as it gets over Port Alsworth and Iliamna,
it will run into the warm, moist air from the Gulf of AK. This
will lead to another potential snow set up for these far interior
locations. We will be monitoring this portion of the forecast for
accumulating snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Sat and
Sun)... The Bering Sea and Aleutians remain extremely quiet
during the weekend. This morning, northwest winds will remain
gusty through the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula (Pacific
side marine zones) with cold air advection pushing through the
terrain. One small area of low pressure will swoop through from
the NW Bering this morning into the Pribilof Islands by this
evening before eventually falling apart as it enters Bristol Bay
Sun afternoon. This system will bring a pocket of small craft
winds with the possibility of a few gale- force gusts. Otherwise,
flow will generally be out of the northwest with seasonable cold
air helping to create pockets of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Sunday through Wednesday)...

Current weather in both the Bering Sea/Aleutians and Gulf of
Alaska will remain pretty much the same. Gale force winds will
slowly taper off in the coastal waters outside Prince William Sound.
The Bering will remain pretty quiet. While models are still not
in great agreement, with this weather pattern we are confident the
forecast will pan out as expected.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Sunday through Friday)...

The weather pattern for the long term sees little shift with
continued troughing over the Bering Sea and southerly flow through
Southcentral AK. This means continued weak flow and quiet weather
for the Bering Sea; Southcentral AK will continue to receive low
pressure systems every few days. As a result, the warm and wet
pattern will be sustained over southcentral AK for the foreseeable
future. Models hint at a larger low developing in the Gulf of
Alaska late next week. However, there is little agreement by this
time in the long term so we will have to wait and assess over the
next few days.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 119.
         Gale Warning 351 352 120 125 130 131 139.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
MARINE/LONG TERM...BB