Storm Warning 96, NWS Anchorage, AK

176 
FZAK51 PAFC 141159
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-150030-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 976 mb low over the Barren Islands will move inland
over the Kenai Peninsula Fri morning. A front will move into the 
southern Gulf Thu night then it will move into the northern Gulf Fri 
morning. The front will intensify through Sat morning. The associated
976 mb low will approach the southern Gulf Sat morning.

$$

PKZ119-150030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt...except SE 35 kt along the coast in the
morning. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain showers with snow.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ120-150030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers with snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ121-150030-
Resurrection Bay-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming Variable wind 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-150030-
Prince William Sound-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt in the morning diminishing to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ126-150030-
Port Valdez-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-150030-
Valdez Narrows-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
Snow and rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-150030-
Valdez Arm-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE wind 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-150030-
Passage Canal-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt early. Seas 4 ft. Rain and 
snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-150030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt early becoming W wind 30 kt then shifting to 
S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the 
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-150030-
Barren Islands East-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 10
ft.
Rain showers.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ132-150030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ136-150030-
Chiniak Bay-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft
building to 6 ft after midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-150030-
Marmot Bay-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-150030-
Shelikof Strait-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt early shifting to SW. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain with snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-150030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers and snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-150030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.  and rain.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-150030-
Kachemak Bay-
359 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt early becoming SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A negatively tilted long wave trough extends from the northern
Bering to the southern Gulf of Alaska. In the center of the
trough, a decaying vertically stacked low is positioned southeast
of St. Paul Island. Cold air continues to wrap around the low over
the western and central Bering, migrating into the southern Gulf.
At the base of the trough, a second vertically stacked low is
moving into the southern Gulf. Cold air is wrapping around the
backside of the closed low which is allowing it to intensify.
Within the main synoptic pattern, a northwesterly oriented
inverted trough is anchored over southcentral.

Sensible weather wise, southwestern Alaska has begun to quiet
down while Southcentral is ramping up. The surface low southeast
of St. Paul is weakening, while an occluding front ahead of this
low continues to bring gusty conditions to the southwestern
coastline and AK-Pen. A second front is pushing into the northern
Gulf ahead of the northerly tracking Pacific surface low. With
the warm frontal progression, winds remain southeasterly, and
precipitation is increasing along the northern Gulf coast. The
Kenai and Middleton Island radars show the most concentrated
precipitation along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William
Sound. While southeasterly winds are prevalent through Turnagain
Arm and Prince William Sound, winds are primarily out of the
north from the Susitna Valley south across the Anchorage Bowl and
through Cook Inlet, to the western Gulf Coast, with the strongest
of these winds currently through Cook Inlet.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Numerical model agreement is strong through Thursday morning with
the track of the Pacific low moving through the Gulf. In general,
the NAM and GFS are producing a stronger solution regarding a
barrier jet formation in the northern Gulf Wednesday night. In
Southcentral, the higher resolution NAMnest was the model of
choice to better fine tune winds in association with this
approaching low. Models really begin to struggle Friday as the
next system approaches the Gulf from the Pacific. While the models
have a good handle on the long wave pattern, they are struggling
with the movement of the embedded shortwaves. At the surface,
this is seen as a divergence in model solutions regarding the
position and track of the next low and associated front(s) moving
north through the Gulf. Because of this, a weighted blend between
the NAM and GFS solutions was used.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC... General VFR conditions will persist over the airport
complex with ceilings expected to remain at or above 5,000ft AGL
through the TAF package. LLWS is possible this morning as surface
winds remain light out of the north while east-southeast winds
aloft increase in advance of the storm system lifting north from
the Gulf. The threat for LLWS will then diminish this afternoon as
the overall winds increase down-inlet (away from the terminal).
LLWS is also possible after 09z Thursday as southeasterly winds
aloft increase once again. There is also the possibility of
vicinity showers beginning midday, but any shower activity should
be brief and isolated due to the downsloping effect of the winds
aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and
Thu)...
A strong storm is taking shape this morning over the Gulf of AK.
After a relatively quiet weather day across Southcentral on Tue,
things will steadily ramp up again through the day today.
Precipitation associated with a weaker trough from Southwest AK
has already pushed into the Gulf Coast this morning. Most of this
has fallen as snow, with even Whittier hanging on to mostly snow
with steady winds off the water. This lighter precipitation will
persist through the day before it is reinforced by a much deeper
fetch of moisture from the North Pacific. Winds will also be on
the increase today, especially for the North Gulf Coast and across
the higher terrain of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

Temperatures for coastal locations could be tricky today. Onshore
flow near Whitter (and into Portage) should help those areas to
warm some. But the warming will be working against continued
precipitation through the day, so the net effect could be
temperatures really just holding steady (vs climbing during the
afternoon). This could lead to a bit more snow falling with the
rain. However, surface temperatures above freezing should still
limit accumulations significantly. Seward is a bit of a different
beast. As the low center tracks due south of Resurrection Bay,
this will allow north winds to continue. These north winds often
serve to reinforce slightly cooler inland air (especially in the
early Spring) in Seward. The net result is a slower warm-up and
thus, more snow than rain. We have trended the forecast in this
direction until the winds shift off the bay early Thu morning.

The biggest concerns with this developing area of low pressure
remain the large snow amounts expected over the Eastern Kenai
Mountains and the gusty winds stretching from the the Turnagain
Arm through the Matanuska Valley. The forecast remains on track
for multiple feet of snow through Fri morning for the higher
elevations of the Eastern Kenai and over towards Girdwood. Winds
will start to steadily increase late Wed afternoon and should peak
early Thu. The Anchorage Hillside and Turnagain Arm could see a
few east-southeast gusts around the 70-75 mph mark. The Anchorage
Bowl and the parts of the Matanuska Valley (to include Palmer and
Wasilla) will see gusty northeast winds early Thu. As the system
passes through by late Thu, all the winds should shift out of the
south-southeast and start to slowly dissipate.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level trough will remain over the Bering and there are
several embedded shortwaves. The remnants of an occluded front
are just off the coast of southwest Alaska to the AKPEN, and this
feature has brought some moisture to the region. The radar at
Bethel/PABC had returns from Goodnews Bay to Kipnuk on it early
this morning. While the radar at King Salmon had a few light
returns from Clark's Point to Egegik. The expectation is that
arctic air will move into the back side of the upper trough.
Massive amounts of cold air always has dynamic repercussions. At
this time, the best chance for snow will be along the coast.
Meanwhile, another round of cyclogenesis south of Kodiak Island
will result in a potent low tracking into the Gulf of Alaska. It
is very possible that wrap around moisture will work its way into
pockets of Southwest Alaska, specifically the western Alaska
Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The latest ASCAT/Advanced Scatterometer data has pinged into gale
force winds north of St Matthew Island this morning and an area of
cyclonic flow outside Bristol Bay and north of Cold Bay. The
northern portion of the front is losing its gusto and will push
east a tad more before becoming quasi-stationary. The southern
portion of the front is an entirely different story but its moving
into the Gulf Of Alaska rapidly and out of this area of
responsibility. In the wake of the cold front, there is a healthy
amount of cold air advection and it looks fairly convective/showery
in the post frontal environment.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Friday through Sunday)...

A series of low pressure systems will move north through the Gulf
of Alaska. Confidence is still low on the timing and placement of
these low pressure systems, as long term forecast models are not
in good agreement. As such, the forecast will likely not be decided
upon until the short term. As of now, it looks like small craft
advisory level winds will be present in coastal waters. The Bering
and Aleutians will be quiet with light northerly flow. Warm temperatures
are inhibiting ice growth, but ice could develop in zone 185.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Friday through Tuesday)...
The long term pattern will be quite active for south central
Alaska, while the Bering will largely quiet be under sustained
low pressure. The longwave pattern is undergoing a shift to a
broad, longwave trough over the Bering Sea and ridging coming up
the Pacific Coast. This will place south central AK under a
transition between the two for the long term. Transition areas
are known as active areas of weather and we are expecting that to
hold true. A train of low pressure systems will move north through
the Gulf of Alaska through the long term, all of which will move
into south central AK. This will keep the area wet and warm
through the long term. Meanwhile, the Bering should see continued
cooler and mainly showery weather as smaller circulations spin
within the longwave trough.

Models are not handling this pattern very well, with still little
agreement on low pressure systems moving through the Gulf of
Alaska. So, as with the past couple of days we have high confidence
in the overall pattern but low confidence in impacts of specific
lows. The amount of uncertainty in models means the forecast will
not be honed until specific weather systems enter the short term.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 125 129 130 131 132 138 139 140.
 		Storm Warning 119 120 351 352.
		Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...BB