Gale Warning 207, NWS Anchorage, AK

122 
FZAK61 PAFC 141157
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-150030-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A 976 mb low at 59N 152W
will move inland over the Kenai Peninsula Fri morning. A front will 
move into the southern Gulf Thu night then it will move into the 
northern Gulf Fri morning. The front will intensify through Sat 
morning. The associated 976 mb low will approach the southern Gulf 
Sat morning.

$$

PKZ351-150030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ352-150030-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
357 AM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt becoming S 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.FRI...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

254 
FZAK61 PAFC 142341
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-151345-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front moves over the North Gulf Coast by Thu night. A second
front sweeps over the North Gulf Coast for Sat morning. A 976 mb 
North Pacific low Fri afternoon moves to 58N 154W at 985 mb Sat 
afternoon. Its front extends from Southwest Alaska into the 
Western Gulf through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-151345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ352-151345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
341 PM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

926 
FZAK61 PAFC 151156
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-160115-
356 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 976 mb low will move to 55N 153W Sat morning then it will move 
inland, passing over Kodiak Island, Sat night. The associated
front will move into the northern Gulf Fri afternoon and intensify
Fri night. The front will then weaken Sat afternoon. A second
front will move into the southern Gulf Sun morning. 

$$

PKZ351-160115-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
356 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 30 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.

$$

PKZ352-160115-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
356 AM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

313 
FZAK61 PAFC 152324
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-161300-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 975 mb low at 52N 152W tracks over Kodiak Island to 59N 154W at
985 mb then inland for Sat night. Its front pushes over the Gulf 
through Sun afternoon. A 982 mb North Pacific low moves along the 
front to 56N 150W at 985 mb by Sun afternoon. 

$$

PKZ351-161300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ352-161300-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
324 PM AKDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

615 
FZAK61 PAFC 161159
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-170100-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 975 mb low at 55N 154W will move inland over the Alaska Peninsula 
Sat night. A 985 mb Pacific low will move near 55N 151W Sun morning 
then it will move to 57N 152W at 989 mb Sun night. The low will then 
move inland over the Kenai Peninsula Mon morning. 

$$

PKZ351-170100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-170100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
359 AM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

657 
FZAK61 PAFC 162343
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-171315-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front over the western Gulf moves into the northeast Gulf coast
by Sun afternoon. A 981 mb North Pacific low moves to 55N 152W by
Sun afternoon and then moves over Kodiak Island at 985 mb by Mon
morning. 

$$

PKZ351-171315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ352-171315-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
343 PM AKDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

615 
FZAK61 PAFC 171151
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-180100-
351 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front in the northern Gulf will dissipate tonight. A 980 mb 
Pacific low will move to 55N 153W this afternoon then it will move 
near 55N 152W at 992 mb Mon morning. The low will then move inland 
Mon night. 

$$

PKZ351-180100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
351 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S to E wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ352-180100-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
351 AM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S to E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

104 
FZAK61 PAFC 172333
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
333 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-181345-
333 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 981 mb low at 54N 151W Sun afternoon moves over Kodiak Island at
990 mb by Mon morning. A front enters the Gulf Tue afternoon
associated with a 985 mb North Pacific low at 53N 152W.  

$$

PKZ351-181345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
333 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt diminishing to less than 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 17 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ352-181345-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
333 PM AKDT Sun Mar 17 2019

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt becoming NE 10 to 20 kt after 
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKDT Wed Mar 13 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A negatively tilted long wave trough extends from the northern
Bering to the southern Gulf of Alaska. In the center of the
trough, a decaying vertically stacked low is positioned southeast
of St. Paul Island. Cold air continues to wrap around the low over
the western and central Bering, migrating into the southern Gulf.
At the base of the trough, a second vertically stacked low is
moving into the southern Gulf. Cold air is wrapping around the
backside of the closed low which is allowing it to intensify.
Within the main synoptic pattern, a northwesterly oriented
inverted trough is anchored over southcentral.

Sensible weather wise, southwestern Alaska has begun to quiet
down while Southcentral is ramping up. The surface low southeast
of St. Paul is weakening, while an occluding front ahead of this
low continues to bring gusty conditions to the southwestern
coastline and AK-Pen. A second front is pushing into the northern
Gulf ahead of the northerly tracking Pacific surface low. With
the warm frontal progression, winds remain southeasterly, and
precipitation is increasing along the northern Gulf coast. The
Kenai and Middleton Island radars show the most concentrated
precipitation along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William
Sound. While southeasterly winds are prevalent through Turnagain
Arm and Prince William Sound, winds are primarily out of the
north from the Susitna Valley south across the Anchorage Bowl and
through Cook Inlet, to the western Gulf Coast, with the strongest
of these winds currently through Cook Inlet.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Numerical model agreement is strong through Thursday morning with
the track of the Pacific low moving through the Gulf. In general,
the NAM and GFS are producing a stronger solution regarding a
barrier jet formation in the northern Gulf Wednesday night. In
Southcentral, the higher resolution NAMnest was the model of
choice to better fine tune winds in association with this
approaching low. Models really begin to struggle Friday as the
next system approaches the Gulf from the Pacific. While the models
have a good handle on the long wave pattern, they are struggling
with the movement of the embedded shortwaves. At the surface,
this is seen as a divergence in model solutions regarding the
position and track of the next low and associated front(s) moving
north through the Gulf. Because of this, a weighted blend between
the NAM and GFS solutions was used.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC... General VFR conditions will persist over the airport
complex with ceilings expected to remain at or above 5,000ft AGL
through the TAF package. LLWS is possible this morning as surface
winds remain light out of the north while east-southeast winds
aloft increase in advance of the storm system lifting north from
the Gulf. The threat for LLWS will then diminish this afternoon as
the overall winds increase down-inlet (away from the terminal).
LLWS is also possible after 09z Thursday as southeasterly winds
aloft increase once again. There is also the possibility of
vicinity showers beginning midday, but any shower activity should
be brief and isolated due to the downsloping effect of the winds
aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wed and
Thu)...
A strong storm is taking shape this morning over the Gulf of AK.
After a relatively quiet weather day across Southcentral on Tue,
things will steadily ramp up again through the day today.
Precipitation associated with a weaker trough from Southwest AK
has already pushed into the Gulf Coast this morning. Most of this
has fallen as snow, with even Whittier hanging on to mostly snow
with steady winds off the water. This lighter precipitation will
persist through the day before it is reinforced by a much deeper
fetch of moisture from the North Pacific. Winds will also be on
the increase today, especially for the North Gulf Coast and across
the higher terrain of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

Temperatures for coastal locations could be tricky today. Onshore
flow near Whitter (and into Portage) should help those areas to
warm some. But the warming will be working against continued
precipitation through the day, so the net effect could be
temperatures really just holding steady (vs climbing during the
afternoon). This could lead to a bit more snow falling with the
rain. However, surface temperatures above freezing should still
limit accumulations significantly. Seward is a bit of a different
beast. As the low center tracks due south of Resurrection Bay,
this will allow north winds to continue. These north winds often
serve to reinforce slightly cooler inland air (especially in the
early Spring) in Seward. The net result is a slower warm-up and
thus, more snow than rain. We have trended the forecast in this
direction until the winds shift off the bay early Thu morning.

The biggest concerns with this developing area of low pressure
remain the large snow amounts expected over the Eastern Kenai
Mountains and the gusty winds stretching from the the Turnagain
Arm through the Matanuska Valley. The forecast remains on track
for multiple feet of snow through Fri morning for the higher
elevations of the Eastern Kenai and over towards Girdwood. Winds
will start to steadily increase late Wed afternoon and should peak
early Thu. The Anchorage Hillside and Turnagain Arm could see a
few east-southeast gusts around the 70-75 mph mark. The Anchorage
Bowl and the parts of the Matanuska Valley (to include Palmer and
Wasilla) will see gusty northeast winds early Thu. As the system
passes through by late Thu, all the winds should shift out of the
south-southeast and start to slowly dissipate.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level trough will remain over the Bering and there are
several embedded shortwaves. The remnants of an occluded front
are just off the coast of southwest Alaska to the AKPEN, and this
feature has brought some moisture to the region. The radar at
Bethel/PABC had returns from Goodnews Bay to Kipnuk on it early
this morning. While the radar at King Salmon had a few light
returns from Clark's Point to Egegik. The expectation is that
arctic air will move into the back side of the upper trough.
Massive amounts of cold air always has dynamic repercussions. At
this time, the best chance for snow will be along the coast.
Meanwhile, another round of cyclogenesis south of Kodiak Island
will result in a potent low tracking into the Gulf of Alaska. It
is very possible that wrap around moisture will work its way into
pockets of Southwest Alaska, specifically the western Alaska
Range.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The latest ASCAT/Advanced Scatterometer data has pinged into gale
force winds north of St Matthew Island this morning and an area of
cyclonic flow outside Bristol Bay and north of Cold Bay. The
northern portion of the front is losing its gusto and will push
east a tad more before becoming quasi-stationary. The southern
portion of the front is an entirely different story but its moving
into the Gulf Of Alaska rapidly and out of this area of
responsibility. In the wake of the cold front, there is a healthy
amount of cold air advection and it looks fairly convective/showery
in the post frontal environment.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5/Friday through Sunday)...

A series of low pressure systems will move north through the Gulf
of Alaska. Confidence is still low on the timing and placement of
these low pressure systems, as long term forecast models are not
in good agreement. As such, the forecast will likely not be decided
upon until the short term. As of now, it looks like small craft
advisory level winds will be present in coastal waters. The Bering
and Aleutians will be quiet with light northerly flow. Warm temperatures
are inhibiting ice growth, but ice could develop in zone 185.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Friday through Tuesday)...
The long term pattern will be quite active for south central
Alaska, while the Bering will largely quiet be under sustained
low pressure. The longwave pattern is undergoing a shift to a
broad, longwave trough over the Bering Sea and ridging coming up
the Pacific Coast. This will place south central AK under a
transition between the two for the long term. Transition areas
are known as active areas of weather and we are expecting that to
hold true. A train of low pressure systems will move north through
the Gulf of Alaska through the long term, all of which will move
into south central AK. This will keep the area wet and warm
through the long term. Meanwhile, the Bering should see continued
cooler and mainly showery weather as smaller circulations spin
within the longwave trough.

Models are not handling this pattern very well, with still little
agreement on low pressure systems moving through the Gulf of
Alaska. So, as with the past couple of days we have high confidence
in the overall pattern but low confidence in impacts of specific
lows. The amount of uncertainty in models means the forecast will
not be honed until specific weather systems enter the short term.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 125 129 130 131 132 138 139 140.
 		Storm Warning 119 120 351 352.
		Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
MARINE/LONG TERM...BB