Storm Warning 93, NWS Anchorage, AK

306 
FZAK51 PAFC 100002
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-101330-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A strong front pushes across the Gulf by Sun afternoon. A second
front enters the Western Gulf Sun night and moves to the Eastern
Gulf by Mon afternoon. 

$$

PKZ119-101330-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 25 kt W of Middleton Island after
midnight. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas subsiding to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ120-101330-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 25 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ121-101330-
Resurrection Bay-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-101330-
Prince William Sound-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas
building to 10 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-101330-
Port Valdez-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread
rain showers.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-101330-
Valdez Narrows-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-101330-
Valdez Arm-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming NE wind 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-101330-
Passage Canal-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-101330-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt gusts to 55 kt diminishing to 25 kt after 
midnight. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after
midnight.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-101330-
Barren Islands East-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt diminishing to 30 kt 
after midnight. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ132-101330-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft except 19 ft N of Dangerous Cape.
Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 21 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-101330-
Chiniak Bay-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-101330-
Marmot Bay-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-101330-
Shelikof Strait-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-101330-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Rain and widespread snow
showers.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and widespread snow
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-101330-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-101330-
Kachemak Bay-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A very strong 180 knot upper-level jet is currently positioned
south of the Aleutians, stretching thousands of miles across the
Pacific to 160E. A much weaker ~100 knot north-south oriented jet
spans the central mainland. An mid-level low is located in the
left exit region of the Aleutian jet continues to strengthen and
is now nearly completely phased with a weaker low that was
spinning in the central Bering for the past few days. The mid-
level ridge axis over eastern Alaska last night has now moved over
Canada and a trough has developed in its wake, currently centered
over the Barren Islands. A weak surface trough slightly
downstream of the mid-level trough is bringing mixed precipitation
to coastal areas along Prince William Sound. A strong ~950mb
surface low is tracking across the central Bering and radar is
indicating associated precipitation along the western mainland
coast. The strong steering winds aloft will cause this front to
move quickly into interior portions of the state.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good agreement in the near-term. The strong,
broad area of low pressure will continue to track across the
Bering. Its associated front is expected to bring strong winds to
Southcentral beginning this afternoon. As models have indicated
the higher Turnagain Arm winds for several days now, confidence is
high. There remains some uncertainty with how strong the winds
will be in Anchorage proper as well as precipitation types along
coastal areas.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast
period. The main issue will be gusty southeasterly winds this
afternoon through early Sunday morning. Winds are expected to peak
at approximately 05z, potentially reaching 35-40 kts before
gradually diminishing thereafter. Wind shear is not in the
current TAF, however if surface winds verify lower than our
forecast, speed sheer in particular could be a threat. Winds at
2000 feet are expected at around 45-50 kts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today and
Sunday)...

A front over the Alaska Peninsula will track to the northeast
today and into Southcentral Alaska this afternoon. This strong
front, that is anchored by a low in the Bering, will bring strong
winds and heavy precipitation to the area. Additionally, it will
pull in warmer air resulting in a change from snow to rain for
many low lying areas and cutting off the possibility for blowing
snow conditions that would drastically reduce visibility. The
majority of the precipitation will be along the north Gulf coast
with the eastern Kenai Peninsula seeing the highest amounts.

Gaps and passes with an east/west orientation will see strong
winds with this system that will increase throughout the morning
and peak this afternoon/evening. One of the locations that will
see the strongest winds will be along Turnagain Arm where a High
Wind Warning has been issued for winds gusting to 80 MPH. Winds
and precipitation will begin to diminish Sunday morning after the
front passes, but will linger, to a lesser extent, around the same
locations through Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A strong front associated with a low in the eastern Bering will
push across Southwest today. Winds along the front will be strong
particularly along the coast in the lee of gaps and passes in the
Alaska and Aleutian Ranges. Winds along the coast are currently
gusting to around 40 mph and expect coast winds to peak around
mid-morning, while farther inland gusts could reach 70 mph by
early afternoon from Kamishak Bay to the Nushagak Hills.
Persistent southeast flow with a deep fetch of moisture will bring
temperatures to the upper 30s to low 40s for most of Southwest
this afternoon. Accordingly, other than along the ridges
precipitation will be rain. Downslope winds will limit
precipitation amounts for areas in the lee of the Aleutian/Alaska
Ranges and the Kilbuck/Ahklun Mountains, and increase highs to
the mid 40s. The front will clear the region tonight, and a
showery pattern with diminished winds is expected in its wake. As
the low shifts inland, cold air from eastern Siberia will wrap
around and winds will shift to onshore and temperatures will
decrease Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A vertically stacked low in the central Bering will continue to
bring a swath of storm force winds south of the Aleutians and rain
showers to much of the Bering, Aleutians and Pribilofs into this
afternoon. Cold air advection around the west side of the low will
support a large area of gales in the western/central Bering.
Precipitation will changeover to snow from west to east into
Sunday, but with a much drier air mass, snow amounts will be
light. Winds will diminish substantially Sunday. The next North
Pacific low will approach the western Aleutians Sunday afternoon,
but does not look very impactful with winds likely only small
craft advisory level. That said, it may be a bit early to
completely rule out gales.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Beginning the day 3 period on Monday, confidence is high that the
overall storm track will be shifting east into the Gulf of
Alaska. There is a high likelihood of a strong gale force to low
end storm force low moving into the Gulf of AK Tue night and
Wednesday. The large size of this low means it will impact all of
the Gulf waters as the low deepens then stalls with gale force
winds likely lasting through Thursday.

Over the Bering Sea, broad cyclonic flow with 20-30 knot winds
will gradually weaken through Tuesday night as the storm track
shifts eastward. This will bring a break to what has been a very
stormy Bering Sea of late as no strong lows are expected through
Thursday (likely remaining at or below gale force through that
period).

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7: Sunday evening through
Friday)...

Beginning the long term forecast Sunday evening, there will be an
upper level low centered over Southwest Alaska with that cyclonic
flow extending over the Bering Sea. Colder air will be filtering
into Southcentral on Monday as the trough shifts east. Rain and
snow will gradually become all snow Monday evening across all of
Southcentral, but no significant accumulations are expected inland
given the relative warm temps in place and the showery nature of
the precipitation.

As the mainland trough moves east into Canada, another shortwave
trough trailing over the Bering Sea will dig south and amplify the
flow. This will make the pattern become more meridional Tuesday
with increasing chances for coastal rain/snow and inland areas of
mostly snow. On Wednesday a deep Gulf low will develop and bring
storminess to the Gulf region with more chances for heavier
coastal precipitation into the late week. Conversely, rather
strong downslope flow will generally keep Southcentral inland
areas drier. For Southwest, it looks like the region west of the
AK Range will stay on the colder side of the cyclonic flow with
increasing chances for accumulating snow Tuesday into Friday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 101.
MARINE...Storm Warning 155 172 174 176.
 Gale Warning 119 120 125 129 130-132 136-139 141 150 160 165 170
171 173 175 177-181 185 351 352 411-413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP/JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...JA