Storm Warning 92, NWS Anchorage, AK

918 
FZAK52 PAFC 091252
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-100145-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 950 mb low 160 nm northeast of Adak Sat morning moves to 60 nm
south of Kipnuk at 956 mb by Sun morning and then moves inland by
Sun afternoon. A 991 mb low 170 nm southwest of Shemya Sun 
afternoon moves to 130 nm west of Adak at 990 mb by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ150-100145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-100145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt, Seas 22 ft building to 32 ft in the
afternoon. From the Shumagin Islands E, S wind 35 kt becoming SW
45 kt in the afternoon, Seas 24 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 35 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 31
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-100145-
Bristol Bay-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-100145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-100145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 20 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-100145-
Unalaska Bay-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-100145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 38 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 37 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft subsiding to 22 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-100145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-100145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt. Seas 38 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 32 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-100145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-100145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt. Seas 35 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-100145-
Adak to Kiska-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft Bering side, 26 ft Pacific side.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-100145-
Kiska to Attu-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-100145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-100145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-100145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-100145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
352 AM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Freezing spray NW of Saint
Matthew Island. Snow showers SE of Saint Matthew Island.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

396 
FZAK52 PAFC 100002
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101300-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 954 mb low 155 nm North of Dutch Harbor moves to 25 nm Southeast
of St Michael at 984 mb for Mon afternoon. Its front wraps over 
Western Alaska and pushes across the Gulf of Alaska through Mon 
afternoon. A 993 mb low 560 nm Southwest of Attu Sun morning 
moves to 75 nm North of Nikolski at 990 mb by Mon afternoon. Its 
front spreads across the Aleutians through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-101300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 34 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101300-
Bristol Bay-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 12 ft after
midnight. Snow showers.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-101300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 21 ft in the
afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101300-
Unalaska Bay-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after
midnight. Rain showers and widespread snow showers.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 36 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 33 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101300-
Adak to Kiska-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
and rain showers.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101300-
Kiska to Attu-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-101300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
302 PM AKST Sat Mar 9 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
514 AM AKST Fri Mar 8 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

There are currently two upper level jets over the forecast area.
One is oriented north-south over the western mainland and the
other much stronger one of around 170 knots is tracking south of
the Aleutians. In the mid-levels, there is currently a weakening
upper level low over the central Bering with an amplified ridge
in place over eastern Alaska. A stronger upper level low located
in the left exit region of the aforementioned jet will intensify
and merge with the weaker low and will gradually break down the
ridge over the eastern mainland. At the surface, a ~970mb low over
the central Bering is weakening as it becomes vertically stacked
with the mid-level low. A stronger surface low is currently well
west of the Aleutians, but will quickly move into that region
today given the fast upper level steering winds and is also
expected to strengthen due to the upper level divergence and mid-
level PVA. It should be fully phased with the weaker low by this
evening.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

As has been true with preceding days, the models are still in
generally good agreement regarding the weakening of the central
Bering low and strengthening of the incoming western Bering low.
The two lows will merge over the central Bering and the associated
front will quickly track eastward, breaking down the ridge over
eastern Alaska and bringing unsettled weather to the entire
forecast region over the weekend. As all major models have shown
good run-to-run consistency over the past few days, confidence is
high regarding this overall upcoming pattern. Turnagain and Knik
Arm winds will likely increase Saturday afternoon and continue
through Sunday morning. One notable change from the previous
forecast is the earlier diminishing of these winds early Sunday
morning as latest models show the associated barrier jet departing
Prince William Sound slightly faster than previous runs.
Uncertainly remains on exactly when the localized stronger winds
will diminish.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the day along with
light and variable winds. A front approaching the area is causing
strengthening southeasterly winds over the airport, leading to
wind shear conditions. Once the front moves into the area, there
may be some light rain tonight, along with strengthening Turnagain
Arm winds down to the surface. After the front passes, the mid-
level winds will diminish but the Turnagain Arm wind will persist.
Looking just beyond the TAF period, as another even stronger
front approaches during the day Saturday, even stronger winds at
2,000 feet are expected to produce more intense wind shear
conditions than those occurring presently. Thus, any break in the
wind shear Saturday morning will be brief.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today and
Sunday)...

The active pattern will continue for Southcentral Alaska with two
fronts pushing through the area through Saturday. The first is
tracking into the Kenai Peninsula bringing a mix of rain and snow
to the region. Some areas along the coast have already
transitioned from snow to rain and as the front pushes north more
locations will see this transition. The heaviest precipitation
will fall over the eastern Kenai Peninsula but snow amounts will
be somewhat subdued due to the transition to rain for many low
lying areas. The front will diminish and track off to the
northeast tonight allowing temperatures to drop again.

The second front will move into the area Saturday bringing another
round of snow and rain to the area. This second system looks to be
stronger than the first with higher amounts of precipitation and
stronger winds. Areas around the Barren Islands and along the
north Gulf coast should see storm force winds as the front moves
through. Additionally, Turnagain Arm will see winds gusting in the
60 MPH range Saturday evening/night due to the front. Similarly
to the first front, the majority of the precipitation will be
along the north Gulf coast, with the heaviest amounts over the
eastern Kenai Peninsula. This system will also be warm enough for
many low lying areas to see a transition from snow to rain through
the day Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A dissipating front associated with a vertically stacked low in
the central Bering Sea continues to bring precipitation to the
southwest mainland. With temperatures hovering right around
freezing, expect mostly snow to continue, though expect a
changeover to rain along the AKPEN later today as temperatures
approach 40 in southerly flow. Expect conditions to temporarily
dry out from west to east later this morning, with another round
of precipitation over the Kuskokwim Delta coast this evening as
the vort max associated with the weakening low passes over the
area.

The next focus is a storm force low roughly 450 miles southwest of
Attu. This low will maintain a deep southerly fetch of moisture
and bring potential for moderate precipitation and a substantial
warming trend over southwest Alaska starting Saturday. Sustained
winds at the surface will likely crack 40 miles per hour, with
potential for gusts over 60 miles per hour at times. South facing
slopes will get the heaviest precipitation, with a foot of snow
possible in the Ahklun and Aleutian Mountains, while areas to the
lee will see considerably less. Visibility will likely be impacted
by blowing snow along the Kuskokwim Delta coast Saturday morning,
but with temperatures likely right around 30, but sustained
whiteout conditions are not expected at this time. As warm south
flow persists, cold air in place will erode and expect
precipitation to change over to rain by Saturday afternoon, save
for the higher peaks. Daytime highs Saturday will easily reach
into the 40s on the north side of the AKPEN, and likely hit upper
30s in the Kuskokwim Delta, lower Kuskokwim Valley, and Bristol
Bay areas. Warm conditions will persist in southwest Sunday, with
showers likely as the low moves overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Heavy swell from a weakening low in the central Bering continues
over much of the marine waters, though seas will subside slightly
this morning. The wet pattern will continue into Sunday. A storm
force low roughly 450 miles southwest of Attu will move
northeastward and bring gales with a swath of storm force winds
along the front later today. The low will shift into the eastern
Bering Sunday. Cold air advection around the west side of the low
will maintain a showery pattern over the Aleutians Sunday, with
precipitation types changing over to snow over the western
Aleutians.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
(Sunday through Tuesday)

...Southern Coastal Waters along the Aleutians/AKPEN...

The main area of interest for the extended period is from Adak
eastward towards Kodiak Island on Sunday. For these locations,
sustained winds in the high-end gale range combined with good
fetch length will yield seas in the 30 to 36 feet range. Storm
force gusts are expected as well. After Sunday, winds will
decrease below gales and seas will subside as well.

...Bering sea and northern coastal waters of the Aleutians/AKPEN...

As an area of low pressure moves from the eastern Bering into
southwest Alaska, mid-range sustained gales are likely across the
western and southern portions of the sea southwards towards the
island chain. A few low-end storm force gusts aren't out of the
question as well, with seas generally in the 20 to 25 feet range.
Conditions will improve for Monday and Tuesday.

...Gulf of Alaska...

Following Sundays frontal passage/strong wind event, look for
small craft criteria winds and waves to persist across Shelikof
Straight and the Kodiak Island coastal waters northeastward
towards Prince William Sound on Monday, with improving conditions
expected on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A strong eastern Bering low will move ashore across the coastal
Kuskokwim Delta on Sunday, with several disturbances crossing the
region in the cyclonic flow. Another low looks to move along the
Aleutian chain towards Bristol Bay for Monday into Tuesday, with a
third low rapidly deepening as it lifts towards Kodiak Island for
the Wednesday and beyond. All of this points to a showery pattern
continuing across most of southwest Alaska and the Aleutians.

Further east, some gusty winds are expected for the Turnagain arm
and Upper Hillside on Sunday, with the higher elevations near
Prince William Sound also getting in on the act. This will occur
in association with an occluded front crossing the region.
Precipitation will be a decent bet as well for most locations,
especially along coastal Prince William sound due to orographic
lift. The exception to this will be the Anchorage Bowl, where
down-sloping effect to the lee of the Chugach Mountains will
develop.

For Monday into Tuesday, the frontal system will weaken due to
frontolysis (the weakening of a front), as it outruns its upper
level support. This will lead to a decrease in the potential for
precipitation.

Our attention then turns towards the Kodiak low mentioned above.
The latest trend in the models is for a slower and stronger low to
develop as it enters the western Gulf mid-week. The European Model
(ECMWF) has trended towards the more persistent GFS solution, with
the Canadian in between. Should a stronger solution develop
verify, a pattern change may be in store for the region.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 119 120 136-139 141 155 165 170-173
 			   175 177 179 181 185 351 411-414.
		 Storms 130-132 150 160 174 176 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JPW/AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...PD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
1237 PM AKST Fri Mar 8 2019

AKZ101-090945-
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian,
and Eklutna
1237 PM AKST Fri Mar 8 2019

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY...

Gusty winds will return to the Anchorage Upper Hillside this
evening and again on Saturday.

Friday evening into late Friday night, winds will become gusty
for Upper Hillside residents. Gusts will be as strong as 50 mph.

Early Saturday morning, a lull in the winds will develop.

By late morning Saturday, a second surge of wind will move over
the Anchorage Upper Hillside with sustained winds of 50 to 65 mph
with gusts reaching up to 75 mph, but a few gusts may be
stronger, especially in exposed locations or in channeled terrain.
The strongest gusts will be near the Upper Hillside.

Lower elevation areas, including Anchorage and Eagle River, may
see gusts up to 35 to 45 mph.

Winds will subside by Saturday evening.

This period of wind is expected to significantly limit any rain
and snow and lower Anchorage elevations on Saturday even as a
weather system is passing through the area.

You can monitor local weather stations for wind gusts during these
periods at www.weather.gov/Anchorage/alaskaObs.

DS/PD