Storm Warning 65, NWS Anchorage, AK

967 
FZAK51 PAFC 220056
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-221415-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 mb low 100 nm Southwest of Yakutat exits the Southeast Gulf
of Alaska Fri morning leaving gusty NW flow in its wake. High 
pressure spreads over the Gulf of Alaska through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-221415-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-221415-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 55 out of northern bays and passes. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-221415-
Resurrection Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt with gusts to 55 KT near Seward. Seas 7 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
45 kt near Seward in the morning. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-221415-
Prince William Sound-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of northern bays and
passes. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-221415-
Port Valdez-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Valdez in the evening. Seas
5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-221415-
Valdez Narrows-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-221415-
Valdez Arm-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-221415-
Passage Canal-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt with gusts to 50 KT near Whittier. Seas 5 
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt with gusts to 40 KT near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 
2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-221415-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray along the west
coast.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft subsiding
to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-221415-
Barren Islands East-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 16
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-221415-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-221415-
Chiniak Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt with gusts to 45 KT. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-221415-
Marmot Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-221415-
Shelikof Strait-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of western bays and 
passes. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-221415-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-221415-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
Areas of freezing fog.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 
2 ft. Areas of freezing fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-221415-
Kachemak Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight...strongest
near the Inlet. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

724 
FZAK51 PAFC 221233
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-230200-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the central Gulf will dissipate Fri afternoon. High
pressure builds over the Gulf through Sun.

$$

PKZ119-230200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-230200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-230200-
Resurrection Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-230200-
Prince William Sound-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-230200-
Port Valdez-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-230200-
Valdez Narrows-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-230200-
Valdez Arm-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 7 
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-230200-
Passage Canal-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Winds diminishing to 20 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-230200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray this morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-230200-
Barren Islands East-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-230200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-230200-
Chiniak Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-230200-
Marmot Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-230200-
Shelikof Strait-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-230200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-230200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters
2 ft. Areas of freezing fog.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 ft. Patchy
freezing fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters
1 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-230200-
Kachemak Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 PM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Beautiful satellite imagery this morning showing a textbook low
pressure system moving northward through the state. The low center
is well stacked from the surface through the upper levels and is
located just to the south of St Lawrence Island and drifting
north. Over the mainland the main jet is shifting eastward into
the ridge and separating the baroclinic leaf from the occluded
front moving through western Alaska. A wave developing along the
jet is currently moving toward the AK Pen. This wave, along with
the area of colder cloud tops in the southern Bering indicates
instability moving into the base of the trough, which should
continue development of a secondary low in the Gulf.

Close to the surface, the precipitation has tapered off along the
Kuskokwim Delta, but winds are still gusty along the coast, which
is closest to the retreating low. In Bristol Bay, precipitation
continues as the area of instability moves overhead, bringing
showers. In southcentral, radar is showing evidence of
precipitation moving up the inlet, however at this point it seem
to be mostly virga, since observations at the surface are not
reflecting any falling precipitation.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement today, although solutions have
changed slightly from previous runs. In the east, the movement of
the low into Prince William Sound has slowed slightly, and the QPF
amounts have backed off, leading to a slightly delayed and drier
forecast than yesterday. West of the Alaska Range, observations
show an increase in winds from what models were indicating,
meaning they might be slightly underdoing the strength of the low
in the Bering. That being said, overall they are tracking well.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Radar is showing returns over the Anchorage bowl as of 21Z
so it looks like we're on track for the snow onset. Heaviest snow
amounts are still expected to be overnight, but it should snow
pretty continuously through tomorrow morning. As with any snow, it
won't take much to lower cigs and vis and even when it's not
snowing heavily MVFR vis is the best we'll expect. Conditions
should clear rapidly tomorrow and be clear for the rest of the TAF
period, with the risk of fog as we move into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Friday night)

Quite the interesting forecast continues to play out, with many
challenges ahead. The first obvious one is with regard to snowfall
totals. Snow has been slower to increase in coverage today, and
this is mainly due to a few things. First, the original strong
tropical feed that we we're expecting to encompass the region by
now was "cut off" by a tropical low west northwest of Hawaii.
Secondly, the latest model trends continued to show the mid-level
disturbance talked about the last few discussions, showing a
further south track (about 50 miles further south). Third, SE
winds off the Turnagain Arm area have proven stronger than
earlier anticipated and taken a bite out of precipitation amounts.

That said, a secondary surge of moisture associated with another
low to the north of the Hawaiian low has developed, and the latest
CIMMS MIMIC Layer Precipitable Water is showing a renewed surge
northward, which has been marching north through the day. While
the brunt of this moisture will be shunted eastward, the western
flank of said surge will encompass the Kenai and Anchorage Bowl
for a few hours if this trend continues, with the heaviest
snowfall likely to occur between 10 PM and 3 AM overnight.

After that, the main story looks to be strong winds through
Thompson Pass and Keystone Canyon, as a surface low develops in
Prince William Sound tomorrow before heading into the eastern
Gulf. A very strong pressure gradient will lead to strong winds
developing for the Copper River Basin. Given a very good dendrite
growth layer and high snow to liquid ratios, this "fluffy" snow
should have no problem being transportable for blowing snow and
whiteout conditions to develop here. As such, a Winter Storm
Watch has been issued for potential blizzard conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...A shortwave
approaching Bristol Bay will bring snow to the Alaska Range
tonight, with generally up to an inch in lower lying areas of
Bristol Bay and along the AKPEN. That said, due to the convective
nature of the precipitation, locally higher amounts are possible.
A weakening low approaching St. Lawrence island will continue to
maintain south to southwest flow over the Kuskokwim Delta tonight,
and cold air wrapping around the south side of the low will
continue to support showers over the Kilbuck and Ahklun
mountains. A brief ridge will build over the central Bering
Thursday and precipitation will diminish.

A storm force low developing southwest of the western Aleutians
will become the next focus in the short term. A secondary low will
develop over the northern Pacific, supporting a long moisture
fetch from the south. Precipitation is possible over the Kuskokwim
Delta/ lower Kuskokwim Valley Friday, with precipitation types
initially snow. The Kuskokwim Delta coast could see blowing snow
early Friday. Persistent south flow will bring temperatures above
freezing by Saturday but precipitation will have diminished.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...A
weakening gale force low is shifting north towards St. Lawrence
Island, leaving much of the Bering in broad west flow with areas
of gales. Cold air originating from an Arctic low over eastern
Siberia will continue wrapping around the south side of the low,
supporting showers over the Bering including the Pribilofs.

A storm force low located roughly 400 miles southwest of Attu will
be the next focus in the short term. The low will push northward
tonight, supporting widespread gales with areas of storm force
winds in the central and western Bering and Aleutians into
Thursday. The low will continue shifting northward Thursday into
Friday, and gales will spread eastward toward the Pribilofs
Thursday night. As the low shifts northward Thursday, a secondary
low will develop along the associated cold front in the north
Pacific. Ample warm air advection ahead of the front front will
maintain precipitation over the western and central
Aleutians/Bering with southerly gale or near gale-force winds
expected through Friday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Thursday through Saturday continue to look windy across the
Bering Sea as a strong low moves up the Kamchatka Peninsula. Winds
ahead of the low in the central Bering are still expected to be
around gale force, but the forecast winds around the low center
have increased in strength and storm force winds are expected for
the Bering Sea and just north of the western Aleutians through
Friday. Saturday appears to be a bit of a break as most of the
energy will go into a low moving up into the central Aleutians,
but gales can be expected to persist across the central Bering.

In the Gulf of Alaska, a low moving into the Prince William Sound
and sliding off to the east on Thursday will increase
northwesterly winds through the gaps. These are expected to be
gale force through the Barren Islands and into the Gulf of Alaska
but higher gusts are possible especially along the coast in the
gap areas.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast continues to be on track from yesterday,
with a ridge of high pressure building in over mainland Alaska,
pushing the main storm track westward over the Bering Sea. Models
are trending towards a stronger high pressure system, which means
that it looks less and less likely for precip to make its way
inland from any lingering fronts over the weekend. This high is an
unusually warm high pressure system for this time of year,
looking more like a spring time high pressure system than the cold
winter highs we see in late January. Solar heating is still
marginal, so spring is not here yet...but temperature forecasts
for the weekend and early next week across the mainland look to be
a bit of a challenge.

As for the Bering Sea, the usual active storm track of the winter
will continue. The storms moving through aren't expected to be
unusually strong, but the amount of warm air aloft will bring rain
much further north than we normally expect at this time of year.
Warm and wet conditions are expected to continue for the eastern
half of the Bering through early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch 131
		 Winter Weather Advisory 101 111 141 121
MARINE...Storm Warning 177 178
         Gale Warning 411-414, 150 170 173-176 179 181 185 119-125 127
		              129-131, 351-352

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...SA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1032 PM AKST WED FEB 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     SNOW             GIRDWOOD                60.94N 149.11W
02/20/2019  M6.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SNOW STILL FALLING.

&&