Gale Warning 178, NWS Anchorage, AK

347 
FZAK51 PAFC 211242
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-220115-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 998 mb low near Middleton Island will move to the northeastern 
Gulf Thu afternoon. The associated front over the central and 
western Gulf will dissipate Thu night. High pressure builds over 
the Gulf Fri.


$$

PKZ119-220115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming NW 35 kt by late morning. seas 8 ft 
building to 12 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray near the Coast.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ120-220115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late this morning. Seas 8 ft
building to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 
12 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Freezing spray near the coast.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-220115-
Resurrection Bay-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-220115-
Prince William Sound-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-220115-
Port Valdez-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-220115-
Valdez Narrows-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-220115-
Valdez Arm-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-220115-
Passage Canal-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind increasing to 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Whittier. 
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Gusts to 45 kt in the morning. Freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-220115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt becoming W 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 
ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-220115-
Barren Islands East-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-220115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-220115-
Chiniak Bay-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-220115-
Marmot Bay-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-220115-
Shelikof Strait-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-220115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-220115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming W wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters
1 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 1 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 ft. Areas of freezing fog.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2
ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-220115-
Kachemak Bay-
342 AM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

967 
FZAK51 PAFC 220056
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-221415-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 mb low 100 nm Southwest of Yakutat exits the Southeast Gulf
of Alaska Fri morning leaving gusty NW flow in its wake. High 
pressure spreads over the Gulf of Alaska through Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-221415-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ120-221415-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 55 out of northern bays and passes. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-221415-
Resurrection Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt with gusts to 55 KT near Seward. Seas 7 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
45 kt near Seward in the morning. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-221415-
Prince William Sound-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of northern bays and
passes. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-221415-
Port Valdez-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt near Valdez in the evening. Seas
5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-221415-
Valdez Narrows-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-221415-
Valdez Arm-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-221415-
Passage Canal-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt with gusts to 50 KT near Whittier. Seas 5 
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt with gusts to 40 KT near Whittier. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 
2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-221415-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray along the west
coast.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft subsiding
to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-221415-
Barren Islands East-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 16
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-221415-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-221415-
Chiniak Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt with gusts to 45 KT. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-221415-
Marmot Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-221415-
Shelikof Strait-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of western bays and 
passes. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-221415-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-221415-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. 
Areas of freezing fog.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 
2 ft. Areas of freezing fog.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-221415-
Kachemak Bay-
356 PM AKST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight...strongest
near the Inlet. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

724 
FZAK51 PAFC 221233
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-230200-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A front over the central Gulf will dissipate Fri afternoon. High
pressure builds over the Gulf through Sun.

$$

PKZ119-230200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of the Copper River Delta. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-230200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray near the coast.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-230200-
Resurrection Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-230200-
Prince William Sound-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-230200-
Port Valdez-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-230200-
Valdez Narrows-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-230200-
Valdez Arm-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 7 
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-230200-
Passage Canal-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Winds diminishing to 20 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-230200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray this morning.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-230200-
Barren Islands East-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ132-230200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-230200-
Chiniak Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 1 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-230200-
Marmot Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-230200-
Shelikof Strait-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-230200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-230200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters
2 ft. Areas of freezing fog.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 ft. Patchy
freezing fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters
1 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-230200-
Kachemak Bay-
333 AM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

065 
FZAK51 PAFC 230053
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-231400-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure builds over the Gulf through Sun.

$$

PKZ119-231400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT....

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River 
Delta. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-231400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-231400-
Resurrection Bay-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts to
30 kt near Seward diminishing after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-231400-
Prince William Sound-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-231400-
Port Valdez-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts to
30 kt near Valdez diminishing after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-231400-
Valdez Narrows-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-231400-
Valdez Arm-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-231400-
Passage Canal-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Gusts to 30 kt neat Whittier diminishing after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-231400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-231400-
Barren Islands East-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-231400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-231400-
Chiniak Bay-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-231400-
Marmot Bay-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft building to 3 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-231400-
Shelikof Strait-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-231400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray and areas of
freezing fog.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-231400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt after
midnight. Areas of freezing fog.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Patchy freezing fog.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Areas of freezing fog.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-231400-
Kachemak Bay-
353 PM AKST Fri Feb 22 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 AM AKST Wed Feb 20 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The vertically stacked low that once encompassed the Bering is
pushing into the northern Bering, still bringing active weather
to the southwest and central Bering. This low sits in the left
exit region of the meridional jet where winds are approaching 140
kts at 30,000 ft. The jet, combined with the flow around the low
is promoting southerly flow aloft over much of the eastern Bering
and western mainland. Cold air is wrapping around the low and
advecting over the western Bering and Aleutians. A shortwave
is present over the western Aleutians. The other synoptic feature
is a persistent ridge over the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral.

At the surface, a tight gradient within the isoheights around the
surface low is creating strong winds throughout the Bering,
notably near the Pribilofs. A cold front ahead of the low, is
moving eastward over the western mainland. Satellite imagery
depicts this textbook system as a comma cloud. The central
rotation is in the northern Bering, and the front is depicted as a
swath of clouds over the western mainland. This front is bringing
heavy snow and strong winds to the Kuskokwim Delta. Ageostrophic
flow around the low is creating easterly winds through the western
Gulf while southerly flow around the surface ridge is causing
more of a westerly flow in the northern Gulf. Over mainland
Alaska, the ridge is keeping skies clear, winds calm and
conditions dry throughout Southcentral. However, this pattern is
changing soon as the next system develops in the northern Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Synoptically, models are in good agreement through Wednesday
afternoon, but they quickly diverge at the surface level. The
first sign is in regards to a developing surface low in the
western Gulf on Wednesday afternoon. Between model runs, there has
been general consensus of a low along the coast forming however
newer runs are showing a slightly more southeasterly track, yet
still the exact location is undecided between the models.

The next system, a Kamchatka low advancing towards the western
Aleutians on Thursday afternoon, is also becoming a struggle for
the models to handle. While all note this feature, they have yet
to lock onto a track and intensity. The American models tend to
agree with placement but the GFS is depicting a deeper low. While
they start out of step with each other, by Saturday, they come
into agreement with the placement, while the strength remains an
issue.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC... Other than some scattered low clouds mainly south of the
area this morning, the weather starts out VFR and quiet. This
afternoon, snow moves in and will gradually increase in intensity
through the overnight, with the heaviest snow expected from around
midnight through the early morning hours on Thursday, during which
IFR conditions will be common with potential for periods of LIFR
conditions. The snow ends from west to east Thursday morning. Fog
will become an increasingly frequent issue going into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The main aspects of the incoming system remain on track. However,
there are two nuances that will have a large impact on the
duration and amount of snowfall over the region. The first will be
the track of the surface low and whether it pokes into western
Prince William Sound or stays just south of the Sound. In
general, if the low reaches into the Sound it will bring more
snowfall over the Cook Inlet region and Susitna Valley. The
Susitna Valley is more susceptible to heavier snowfall as the system
moves in this afternoon and evening due to it being in more
southwest flow aloft at that time.

This upper level low is the other important factor which will
largely dictate when the snowfall ends. Usually the snowfall will
shut off like a light when the 500 mb trough passes through. The
upper level pattern has been consistent showing not just a trough,
but a cut-off low developing in the trough as it passes over
Southcentral late Wednesday night and moves into the northern
Gulf. While a secondary short wave will traverse the area behind it
late Thursday morning, the main snowfall should end with this
initial upper level trough/low.

The 6Z recent model runs did generally scale back a little on the
QPF values expected over Southcentral and this may be in part due
to these two features mentioned above. However, the Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect and still look to be in the ballpark
for expected snowfall amounts through the Susitna Valley one was
scaled back a little on the amounts.

One other area to watch with this storm will be the Cordova area.
There will be some good lifting along the front as well as gusty
Southeast winds. Temperatures should remain near 30 for the low
which will allow for snow and blowing snow. Since the temperatures
are just below freezing, there is less of a chance for blowing
snow to reduce visibilities to blizzard conditions. Due to snow
intensity and the gusty winds, some blowing snow is likely in the
Cordova area overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

There is a surface low near St Matthew Island with an occlusion
and a warm front moving into Southwest Alaska. A decent amount of
moisture will work its way into SW Alaska bringing another batch
of snow to the region. The models have the surface low moving
almost due north this forecast period, and the occlusion getting
sheared apart from the remnants of the baroclinic zone. As for
snow amounts, the dendritic growth zone looks pretty healthy with
this system. Expect 2 to 4 inches in the Y-K Delta, and a few
isolated places may receive 6 inches. The models bring a minor
ridge into SW AK on Thursday which will be the lull before the
next storm. The precipitation shield with this second storm is
handled slightly different depending which model solution you look
at. The odds are good that the next wave of moisture will begin
to move into the region late Thursday and early Friday for the
coastal communities of Southwest Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An active pattern is on deck for this forecast period. The latest
ASCAT/Advanced Scatterometer pass has detected gale force winds
over the Central and Eastern Bering. This isn't much of a
surprise given how tight the pressure gradient forces were in the
model runs leading up to this event. This low will move almost due
north this forecast period. In its wake, another cyclone will follow
and can currently be located on satellite imagery southeast of
Kamchatka and southwest of Attu Island. This storm will deepen 20
millibars in 24 hrs, not exactly a bomb, but formidable in its own
right. Expect strong winds, rough seas and another round of
precipitation with this storm. This storm is projected to reach its
peak intensity near Attu and Shemya early Thursday and track north.
A secondary wave will form along the baroclinic zone and move
towards the Central Aleutians early Friday. The models are already
spinning up a third cyclone in the Sea Of Okhotsk on Friday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Thursday through Saturday continue to look windy across the
Bering Sea as a strong low moves up the Kamchatka Peninsula. Winds
ahead of the low in the central Bering are still expected to be
around gale force, but the forecast winds around the low center
have increased in strength and storm force winds are expected for
the Bering Sea and just north of the western Aleutians through
Friday. Saturday appears to be a bit of a break as most of the
energy will go into a low moving up into the central Aleutians,
but gales can be expected to persist across the central Bering.

In the Gulf of Alaska, a low moving into the Prince William Sound
and sliding off to the east on Thursday will increase
northwesterly winds through the gaps. These are expected to be
gale force through the Barren Islands and into the Gulf of Alaska
but higher gusts are possible especially along the coast in the
gap areas.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long term forecast continues to be on track from yesterday,
with a ridge of high pressure building in over mainland Alaska,
pushing the main storm track westward over the Bering Sea. Models
are trending towards a stronger high pressure system, which means
that it looks less and less likely for precip to make its way
inland from any lingering fronts over the weekend. This high is an
unusually warm high pressure system for this time of year,
looking more like a spring time high pressure system than the cold
winter highs we see in late January. Solar heating is still
marginal, so spring is not here yet...but temperature forecasts
for the weekend and early next week across the mainland look to be
a bit of a challenge.

As for the Bering Sea, the usual active storm track of the winter
will continue. The storms moving through aren't expected to be
unusually strong, but the amount of warm air aloft will bring rain
much further north than we normally expect at this time of year.
Warm and wet conditions are expected to continue for the eastern
half of the Bering through early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 101 111 121 141 145.
MARINE...Gales: 119 120 125 130 131 132 173-176 179 181 351 352
                411-414.
         Storms: 177 178 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RJA/JPW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...LF