Storm Warning 47, NWS Anchorage, AK

546 
FZAK52 PAFC 011248
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-020200-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A strong front continues to extend from St Matthew Island 
southeastward across the central Aleutians and then Alaska 
Peninsula through Sat afternoon. A second front associated with a
949 mb low 380 nm west of Shemya moves across the western 
Aleutians and Bering by Fri morning.

$$

PKZ150-020200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-020200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt except W 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt except S 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ160-020200-
Bristol Bay-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. Snow with rain in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ165-020200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, S wind 15 kt
increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-020200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-020200-
Unalaska Bay-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-020200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ173-020200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-020200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-020200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-020200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 50 kt. Seas 33 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 34 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ177-020200-
Adak to Kiska-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft Bering side...33 ft Pacific side. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Bering side, seas 24 ft. Pacific side,
seas 32 ft subsiding to 26 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft Bering side...25 ft Pacific side.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 33 ft.

$$

PKZ178-020200-
Kiska to Attu-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 32 ft.

$$

PKZ179-020200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-020200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. 
Snow with rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-020200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Snow.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt.
.MON...E wind 25 kt.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-020200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
348 AM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30
kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt. Seas 
in ice free waters 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.

$$

150 
FZAK52 PAFC 020007
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-021315-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 mb low 220 nm east of Shemya will move to the northern 
Bering Sat morning. A front will move over the western Bering Sat 
morning then remain nearly stationary through Sun afternoon. A 
983 mb North Pacific low advances toward the western Aleutians Sun
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-021315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-021315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 25
kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt except S 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ160-021315-
Bristol Bay-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-021315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, S wind 15 kt
increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-021315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-021315-
Unalaska Bay-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-021315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ173-021315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-021315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft building to 29 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
27 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ175-021315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt diminishing to SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft subsiding to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-021315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt diminishing to SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas
33 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ177-021315-
Adak to Kiska-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft Bering side... 30 ft Pacific
side.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 33 ft.

$$

PKZ178-021315-
Kiska to Attu-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 23
ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ179-021315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-021315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-021315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Snow 
and rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.MON...E wind 30 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-021315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 12 ft building to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 45 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.

$$

389 
FZAK52 PAFC 021206
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-030100-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front will move over the western Bering Sat morning then remain
nearly stationary through Sun afternoon. A 986 mb North Pacific 
low moves to 130 nm east of Adak by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ150-030100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-030100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt except S 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ160-030100-
Bristol Bay-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-030100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10
kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-030100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-030100-
Unalaska Bay-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-030100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ173-030100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-030100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
27 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ175-030100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-030100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ177-030100-
Adak to Kiska-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ178-030100-
Kiska to Attu-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ179-030100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-030100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-030100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.MON...E wind 30 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-030100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, S wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 20 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 AM AKST Thu Jan 31 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper-level trough extending from Kodiak Island across the
northern Gulf continues produce some widely scattered snow
showers across areas of the immediate southcentral coast. These
showers, however, are tapering off quickly as the trough and its
associated surface feature slides south and east. Farther north,
an upper-level ridge centered over northwest Alaska is elongating
and drifting toward Southcentral. This, combined with weak low-
level forcing and lingering surface moisture, is producing
widespread stratus and areas of dense fog from the Cook Inlet
north across portions of the MAT-SU Valleys. Areas of low stratus
are also present over the Copper River Basin where colder air is
advecting into the region and helping drive gusty offshore winds
through Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta.

For Southwest Alaska, low stratus remains from the YK-Delta south
to Bristol Bay as a weakening trough lifts to the northwest and a
surface ridge slowly builds over the eastern Bering. West of
Shemya, a 952 mb low is producing widespread gales and areas of
storm-force winds west of Adak, as seen on the latest ASCAT
scatterometer pass. An occluded front attached to the low
stretches across the Bering and over the central Aleutians
producing rain west of Dutch Harbor and the Pribilofs.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Guidance remains in good agreement through the duration of the
short-term forecast package. The models have continued the trend
in keeping the bulk of the energy from the upper-level trough
digging south toward the Copper River Basin east over the Yukon
and northern Canadian Rockies moving into the end of the week.
There continues to be some minor timing differences concerning the
front moving into the Gulf from the west Friday afternoon.
Forecast models all indicate that the front will fall apart as it
approaches the northern Gulf; however, all but the GFS hint at
the development of a weak surface low south of Prince William
Sound late Friday or early Saturday that would keep the threat for
showers along the southcentral coast for the weekend. There is
also some differences in the timing and position of the next front
to move east into the Gulf from Southwest Alaska late Saturday
into Sunday as the parent low moves from the eastern Bering into
interior Southwest Alaska. Given the good agreement between the
models, the NAM was favored for its higher resolution. Forecast
confidence remains higher than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...IFR and LIFR conditions are expected over the airport
complex through midday today due to persistent areas of dense fog.
Conditions should improve to VFR after midday as a light easterly
wind advects drier air over the region. Vicinity fog is possible
again beginning this evening as winds slacken and patches of low
stratus develop over Cook Inlet and Knik Arm.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A cold upper trough dropping south along the ALCAN boarder has
signaled a shift toward drier and colder conditions across the
Southcentral mainland. Cold air will continue to pour into the
Cooper River Basin today increasing pressure and thermal
gradients between the maritime coastal environment and continental
polar interior. These strong gradients in combination with
increasing northerly upper level flow and dry air intrusion will
enhance outflow and gap winds across much of the North Gulf Coast
and Kenai Peninsula. Expect the strongest winds to be out of the
Cooper River Delta and in the Thompson Pass to Valdez area. These
winds will peak late this evening then diminish slowly overnight
as upper support wanes.

Foggy conditions across the MAT-SU Valleys, Anchorage Bowl,
Turnagain Arm, and the Western Kenai should break up by noon today
as increased flow brings enough mixing. There is the possibility
if winds remain light tonight that the fog could reform across the
Anchorage Bowl and Knik Arm.

A weather front heading toward Kodiak on Friday will bring
increased chances of rain and snow to the western Gulf. This front
will also spread clouds across the northern Gulf, Kenai
Peninsula, and Cook Inlet to MAT-SU Valleys corridor Friday
night. Snow potential inland does not look very promising and
should not amount to much accumulation, if any.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Thursday
through Saturday)...

Generally quiet weather starts the day in southwest Alaska.
Satellite indicates low level stratus is stubbornly hanging on
over much of the area and that flow has transitioned to the
northeast. Satellite imagery indicates a plume like feature of
stratus moving down the north side of the Alaska Range and
expanding once it reaches southwest Alaska, really highlighting
the wind direction as cold air filters down the north side of the
range. Meanwhile, surface observations show this flow has pushed
fog out of most areas, with just some fog along the coast.

Weather will change Friday, with the arrival of a frontal system
extending from a low in the western Bering. This low does not have
a lot to support it, so it will fall quickly apart as it reaches
the coast. Saturday another very similar frontal system will do
the same, again falling apart as it pushes inland. Expect mostly
snow with the first system but with both fronts warming
temperatures, there will be more of a rain/snow mix mainly along
the coast with the second system Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
3/Thursday through Saturday)...

The storm force low we have been advertising for the past couple
of days has arrived in the western Bering. The latest
scatterometer pass indicates storm force winds moving through the
Rat Islands, while a ship observation at 0400Z south of Adak
indicated winds as high as 70kts. We have not observed storm force
winds west of these areas as forecast, but with the observation
out at Shemya again this evening, there is no way to verify if
storm force winds passed through there. It is likely given storm
force winds elsewhere.

This low is the first of two lows that will move through the
Bering Sea in the next couple of days. The next low moving through
Friday into Saturday will again have storm force winds impacting
the western Bering and Aleutians. Both will also have fronts that
will detach and move east across the Aleutians and eventually into
southwest Alaska. So a rinse and repeat pattern with brief breaks
in the weather before the next low moves in.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

The global models continue show a series of lows developing in
quick succession for the Bering and Aleutians. The pattern
actually holds up for 10 days. Suffice to say, very confident in
the notion of cyclones developing south of the Aleutians, jumping
the chain and then unleashing strong winds/rough seas into the
region. Very confident in how quickly the storms follow in the
wake of their predecessors. At the beginning of this forecast
period 00z Saturday, there is a surface low near Kamchatka with an
estimated pressure of 954 mb and a second surface low west of
Adak ranging from 960 mb - 966 mb which is enough to make a
difference between gale of storm force winds materializing. By 12z
Saturday the low west of Adak moves due north and then is west of
St.Paul. The GFS and the ECMWF both prog that track but the GFS
definitely intensifies the low more than the ECMWF. Meanwhile the
Kamchatka low slowly decays wobbles around the western Bering.
But there is another slug of vorticity propagating about the base
of the longwave trough that support a new low moving west of Adak
18z Sunday. Also at 18z Sunday, looking further down range there
is a new low in the Sea Of Japan that is going to undergo rapid
cyclogenesis once it moves over the Kuroshio Current and it is
headed directly to Attu Island.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The longwave pattern features a ridge from the Central Pacific
into Southwestern Alaska with the longwave trough over Kamchatka
and the Northwest Pacific. As time elapses, the troughing extends
eastward encompassing more of the Bering while the ridge axis
shifts over Southcentral AK. This is going to result in a
prolonged period of southwest flow and moisture advection over
the AKPEN and SW AK. There are numerous shortwaves embedded in the
longwave pattern. Expect this forecast period to be highly active
over the Aleutians/Bering with 3 distinct baroclinic fronts
moving across the chain and into Southwest Alaska resulting in
above normal level of precipitation. There is growing confidence
that this mean pattern actually holds through Day 10. And guidance
from the Climate Prediction Center actually suggests that it will
hold through Day 14.

With that ridge in place over the Central Pacific, what is less
clear is how much remnant moisture will work its way into
Southcentral Alaska. At this time, Sunday looks like the best
chance for precipitation in the Anchorage Metro Area and the
forecast thermal profiles are suggesting it will be snow! Places
like Kodiak, Homer and Seward could see more of a rain/snow mix.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 131.
MARINE...Storm Warning 176 177 411.
Gale Warning 127 170 172 173 174 175 178 179 185 412 413 414.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BB
MARINE/LONG TERM...PS