Gale Warning 129, NWS Anchorage, AK

150 
FZAK52 PAFC 020007
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-021315-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 970 mb low 220 nm east of Shemya will move to the northern 
Bering Sat morning. A front will move over the western Bering Sat 
morning then remain nearly stationary through Sun afternoon. A 
983 mb North Pacific low advances toward the western Aleutians Sun
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-021315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-021315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, W wind 25
kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt except S 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ160-021315-
Bristol Bay-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-021315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, S wind 15 kt
increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-021315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-021315-
Unalaska Bay-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-021315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ173-021315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ174-021315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft building to 29 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
27 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ175-021315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt diminishing to SW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft subsiding to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-021315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt diminishing to SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas
33 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ177-021315-
Adak to Kiska-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft Bering side... 30 ft Pacific
side.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 33 ft.

$$

PKZ178-021315-
Kiska to Attu-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 23
ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ179-021315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-021315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-021315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Snow 
and rain.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.MON...E wind 30 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-021315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
307 PM AKST Fri Feb 1 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas in
ice free waters 12 ft building to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 45 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.

$$

389 
FZAK52 PAFC 021206
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-030100-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front will move over the western Bering Sat morning then remain
nearly stationary through Sun afternoon. A 986 mb North Pacific 
low moves to 130 nm east of Adak by Mon morning.

$$

PKZ150-030100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-030100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt except S 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 19 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ160-030100-
Bristol Bay-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-030100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, SW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10
kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-030100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ171-030100-
Unalaska Bay-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-030100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ173-030100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-030100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
27 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ175-030100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ176-030100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 31 ft.

$$

PKZ177-030100-
Adak to Kiska-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 29 ft.

$$

PKZ178-030100-
Kiska to Attu-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ179-030100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-030100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.

$$

PKZ181-030100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt.
.MON...E wind 30 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ185-030100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
306 AM AKST Sat Feb 2 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 30 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, S wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 20 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 PM AKST Thu Jan 31 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a sharp upper level ridge over western Alaska. There
is an upper level trough over northwest Canada. There is fairly
strong northerly flow aloft in between these features over
Southcentral. At the surface there is fairly strong offshore
flow from Seward eastward with strong high pressure over the
Copper River Basin. Over the Cook Inlet area and Southwest Alaska
the flow is weaker, and some stratus and fog is evident on
satellite imagery and on some surface observations. There is a
strong vertically stacked low centered to the west of the western
Aleutians. A leading front with this system extends from the
eastern Aleutians east-northeast across the Bering Sea.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement for the short term
portion of the forecast (Saturday afternoon). There are some
minor differences on the exact location of some of the surface
lows, but this should have minimal impact on the forecast.
Therefore forecast confidence is higher than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions this afternoon will change to generally
IFR to LIFR conditions in fog this evening through Friday
morning. Conditions should improve again Friday afternoon,
though some fog in the vicinity is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Tonight through Saturday night the ridge over the mainland will
be the dominant weather feature bringing drier and colder
conditions through. Two challenges in the near term are patchy
dense fog along the Cook Inlet and gusty winds for channeled
terrain along the coasts. Fog across the Matanuska Valley, to
Anchorage, to the western Kenai is expected to re-develop this
evening with similar slow improvement on Saturday; however,
coverage is expected to be less as the air mass is much drier
which is evident on the Anchorage 00Z sounding. Any localized
wind effects could shift the fog bank around during the early
morning. For gusty wind locations...such as Thompson Pass and
gap terrain along the coasts...expect peak gusts tonight tapering
down for Friday.

The next front moves across the southwestern Gulf Friday afternoon,
continuing on an eastward track through Friday night. A few
scattered showers are possible across the central and northern
waters just north of the low center. Wind shifts will occur as
this low tracks east, but speeds are relatively low impact with
this system.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper ridge over northwest Alaska and an Arctic upper low over
northeast Alaska and the Yukon will maintain weak offshore flow
and cold dry conditions this evening. Stratus persists in the
lower Kuskokwim Valley and in the Bristol Bay area, but offshore
flow farther north was strong enough to clear out much of the
inland Kuskokwim Delta. Weak north flow along the south side of
the AKPEN also facilitated partial clearing. A vertically stacked
storm force low centered roughly 300 miles west of Attu is
gradually shifting westward toward the Kamchatka peninsula. The
occluded front associated with this low is approaching the AKPEN,
and will bring a transition to south flow and wet conditions over
most of Southwest late tonight into tomorrow. The front will
dissipate as it reaches the mainland so significant precipitation
is unlikely, with around 2 to 3 inches of snow expected in areas
closer to the coast and up to an inch farther inland.

Another storm force low will reach the western Aleutians late
Friday into Saturday, and warm air advection ahead of its front
will continue the warm up Saturday, with another round of
precipitation. Again, the front will be dissipating as it reaches
the mainland but still expect some precipitation, though with the
continuing warm-up, will probably see areas of rain or rain/snow
mix.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A storm force low roughly 300 miles west of Attu continues to
bring areas of gales to the western Aleutians and portions of
the Bering, including the Pribilofs. Winds over the Bering will
diminish somewhat during the day Friday, however another storm
force low will impact the Aleutians and Bering late Friday into
Saturday. This low will develop from a wave currently roughly 800
miles off the coast of Japan. The latest ASCAT pass already shows
storm force winds in the vicinity of the wave and the low will
quickly develop under a 170kt jet. This system will bring another
round of precip to the Aleutians and Bering, with a strong
subtropical to tropical moisture fetch.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Beginning on Sunday in the western Bering, southwest winds should
be ramping down as a low weakens and exits to the north with
generally sub gale force winds expected, though the long SW fetch
will keep seas rough, with waves heights expected to remain near
or above 20 ft. Models are showing another, weaker, low,
approaching from south of Adak by Sunday afternoon, though there
is still a fair bit of uncertainty regarding this system. As it
stands right now, this system would only bring a quick bump of
winds towards low end gales, though further intensification could
increase winds towards storm force Sunday night through Monday
night over the central Aleutians and Bering Sea. Another low
approaches the western Bering from the Sea of Okhotsk by Tuesday
afternoon, though models keep the low center over Attu with the
core of strongest winds to the south of the islands.

Conditions look to remain rather benign over the Gulf of Alaska
through Tuesday with general high pressure residing over the area
keeping the storm track just to the west.

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning Sunday, an upper level ridge previously entrenched over
most of the mainland will shift east with the ridge axis located
over the ALCAN border by the end of the day. Out west, an upper
level low will continue to support an active pattern with a series
of systems expected to push across the Bering into the western
mainland. The eastward shift of the ridge axis will allow these
systems to push into Southcentral with precipitation expected to
make it across the Alaskan Range by Sunday morning. Another system
pushes north across the Bering by Monday with its associated
front pushing precipitation across the southern mainland by Monday
night. The consistent southwesterly fetch will mean these systems
will be pulling up milder air with increasing chances for rain
along the coast and possibly a bit further inland. The overall
unsettled pattern looks to continue through at least the end of
next week with the upper ridge axis maintaining its position east
of Southcentral with the upper low over the Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 175 176 177.
		 Gale Warning 127 170 172 173 174 178 179 185.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 127 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MM
MARINE/LONG TERM...KVP