Storm Warning 208, NWS Anchorage, AK

424 
FZAK51 PAFC 311208
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-010100-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 974 mb low over Kodiak Island this morning will move up Cook
Inlet through Tue night at 973 mb then weaken through Wed night.

$$

PKZ119-010100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-010100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-010100-
Resurrection Bay-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Widespread snow and rain showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-010100-
Prince William Sound-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft 
subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers and snow.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-010100-
Port Valdez-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and
snow.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Widespread snow
showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-010100-
Valdez Narrows-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain
and snow.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-010100-
Valdez Arm-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SW wind 15 kt after midnight. Seas 
4 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-010100-
Passage Canal-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

.TODAY...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-010100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-010100-
Barren Islands East-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt
near the Barren Islands in the morning. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-010100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-010100-
Chiniak Bay-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-010100-
Marmot Bay-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-010100-
Shelikof Strait-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming W 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft 
building to 10 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-010100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-010100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain
and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 1 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-010100-
Kachemak Bay-
308 AM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Snow with rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

035 
FZAK51 PAFC 312355
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-011245-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 972 mb low over the Kenai Peninsula Tuesday afternoon moves
inland Tue night. A 999 mb 210 nm southwest of Kodiak City Thu 
morning moves 150 nm southwest of Kodiak City at 997 mb Thu 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-011245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ120-011245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. 
Rain showers transitioning to snow showers.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ121-011245-
Resurrection Bay-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain showers transitioning to snow showers.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-011245-
Prince William Sound-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain showers and snow.
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-011245-
Port Valdez-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Rain transitioning to snow.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-011245-
Valdez Narrows-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
Rain and snow.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-011245-
Valdez Arm-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming SW wind 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-011245-
Passage Canal-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. 
Seas 3 ft. Rain transitioning to snow.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow showers.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-011245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...W wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-011245-
Barren Islands East-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ132-011245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ136-011245-
Chiniak Bay-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-011245-
Marmot Bay-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ138-011245-
Shelikof Strait-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-011245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 10 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-011245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-011245-
Kachemak Bay-
255 PM AKST Tue Dec 31 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKST Mon Dec 30 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A polar front continues to dominate the weather across the Bering
Sea and Southwest Alaska as sub-500 dm 500 hpa heights remain in
place aloft. This very cold arctic air can be seen pouring out
over the Bering with a growing ice edge along the Kuskokwim Delta
coast. Widespread convective snow showers persist over the Bering,
with temps as cold as 9-13 degrees across the Pribilof Islands,
and -15 F and colder across the Kuskokwim Delta. On the east side
of the Alaska Range, warm subtropical air is advecting northward,
with a very pronounced subtropical jet stream associated with this
warm air advection regime. A leading low amplitude impulse aloft
is quickly propagating into Cook Inlet and the Kenai Peninsula
this morning, with the associated storm force front tracking
inland along the North Gulf Coast. This front has brought warm
southeast winds all the way into the Matanuska Valley, Prince
William Sound, the entire Kenai Peninsula, and the Anchorage
Hillside. Turnagain Arm was blowing hurricane force with 80 MPH
gusts at Mchugh Creek and 70+ MPH winds blasting over the
Hillside. There was even a report of 100+ MPH winds through the
upper Eagle River South Fork region above 3000 feet. Another
surface wave can be seen on satellite forming south of Dutch
Harbor, and this wave will rapidly amplify as the Bering Sea
potential vorticity anomaly aloft intersects it and moves into
Bristol Bay and across the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical weather models are all depicting a similar synoptic
pattern, and are in much better agreement with the overall
details of what is going to occur the next two days. However, some
finer and impactful details remain uncertain, with the first
being the westward extent of the deformation band snowfall across
Southwest Alaska. The GFS remains the farthest west with the heavy
snow band occurring from a north-south line from Dillingham north
to Sleetmute. The ECMWF and Canadian models are dramatically
farther east and favor a line from King Salmon to Sparrevohn. As
usual the extreme solutions are not favored so this forecast will
favor a middle ground solution, which is best depicted by the 00z
and 06z NAM.

For the remainder of the region, a powerful arctic front will
cross the AKPEN and lift north through Cook Inlet and and the
Gulf Coast Tuesday and Tuesday night. The NAM and hi res models
from the United States are clear outliers and would support a
snowstorm as the incredible cold air advection (-10 C at 850 hpa
in 3 hrs) would support a powerful front and heavy snow squalls
from the southern Kenai Peninsula northward to Anchorage. For
now, those solutions will be tossed, but they are duly noted.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Light rain mixed with snow will end late morning, in
conjunction with light southerly winds. Expecting mostly VFR
conditions but CIGS will drop below 5000 feet at times. Expect
increasing low level wind shear this afternoon, remaining through
the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low currently over Cook Inlet will move north this morning and
dissipate by afternoon. This will bring a mix of precipitation
types to the area today with temperatures near freezing, except in
the central and western Copper River basin where they remain well
below freezing. Another system will push into the Gulf from the
southwest tonight and Tuesday. This will bring warmer temperatures
to the area. Precipitation will mainly be confined to the coastal
areas and the Susitna valley, with downsloping keeping the
northern Cook Inlet area fairly dry. The cold front with this
system will push through Kodiak Island beginning late Tuesday.
This cold front is quite vigorous and will bring dramatically lower
temperatures to the Island Tuesday night. The cold front will work
its way towards the Southcentral mainland Tuesday night.
The timing on this front is a little uncertain, but should push
across the Anchorage area late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Another storm looks to affect the region, with the latest model
runs favoring a low pressure track from King Salmon to Anchorage.
With this in mind, the biggest change in the models has been to
shift the deformation band on the backside of the low further
east, with the heaviest snowfall now expected to be east of a
Dillingham to Crooked Creek line. Here, storm total snowfall
should be in the 10 to 25 inch range. As the low passes by, north
to northwesterly winds will increase with wrap around snowfall
continuing, allowing for fairly widespread blowing snow to
develop. Most locations will see visibilities reduced to less than
one mile at times as the heavy snow, light powdery nature of
snow, and increasing winds all interact.

Further west across the upper Kuskokwim Delta, this region will be
well removed from the snowfall, but will also be in line to see
the cold air advection aloft kick in the fastest, with 850 mb
temperatures dropping below -30 C. By tonight, sustained winds of 20
mph, with gusts at or above 30 mph, will be common during the
overnight hours. This will create dangerous wind chill conditions,
with the previous forecast package having issued the wind chill
advisory. Overall, not much change for this region as our previous
thinking remains on track. The cold weather will continue on Tuesday
area-wide, with snowfall decreasing from southwest to northeast as
we head into the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
As an area of low pressure passes by to the east, a reinforcing
shot of cold weather will drop south across the Bering and
Aleutians. This will maintain an active snow shower pattern, some
of which could be locally intense, as the ocean delta-Ts increase
(the temperature difference between the sea and roughly 9000
feet). This pattern looks to continue through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
(Tuesday through Thursday)

...Bering Sea and Aleutian Coastal Waters...

Northerly gales and seas 15 to 25 feet will continue across the
eastern half of the Bering and Aleutians on Tuesday as low
pressure south of the AKPEN moves toward Kodiak Island. For the
western Bering, winds and seas will relax as a ridge builds over
the region. The gales diminish in coverage on Wednesday as the
low enters the Gulf and the ridge expands eastward over the
central Bering. By late Wednesday into Thursday, a band of
southeasterly gales will develop ahead of a front moving over the
Western Bering and Aleutians.

...Gulf of Alaska...

Broad southerly small-craft level winds, with perhaps some
embedded gales, will persist across the Gulf on Tuesday as a front
lifts toward the Southcentral coast. An area of westerly gales
will expand across the western and southern Gulf late Tuesday
into Wednesday as the low south of the AKPEN lifts toward a
position near Kodiak Island. These winds will continue into Thursday
as the low tracks in the northern Gulf. Seas will range from 15 to
25 feet across the Gulf through late Thursday before diminishing the
low tracks toward the Alaska Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
(Tuesday through Saturday)

The active weather pattern that has been so persistent for well
over a week now will continue into the new year. By Tuesday, the
main weather feature will be a 960 to 970 mb low spinning up in
the north Pacific south of the eastern Aleutians with yet another
arctic trough digging south over the Bering. As has been the case,
model performance this far out has varied considerably. Thus,
confidence in the evolution of this surface low and its
interaction with the digging trough remains low. With that said,
it does appear that this system will bring accumulating snow and
strong northeasterly winds to portions of Southwest Alaska. The
main difference between the models is track and timing, and these
variables will impact where the heaviest bands of snow set up.
Right now, this could be anywhere from along the Alaska Range
north to Bethel.

For Southcentral, Tuesday will also be quite active as a series of
shortwaves ahead of the aforementioned low ushers in bands of
precipitation and much warmer air with a continued southerly
flow. It is hard to believe right now with so much cold air in
place, but this system looks to push temperatures above freezing
not just for the immediate coast, but also for areas farther
inland and around Cook Inlet. Obviously, any mention of
temperatures above freezing will mean a changeover in
precipitation from snow to a wintry mix or even all rain. The big
question remains how much of this precipitation makes it over the
mountains and into places like Anchorage, as there will also be a
downslope component accompanying these shortwaves which will help
limit precipitation amounts. The warmer temperatures and mixed
precipitation will continue into Wednesday as the main low tracks
into the Gulf.

Conditions then turn colder and more showery for the second half
of the week as the low tracks south and a ridge develops over
interior Alaska. This set up will usher in colder air across the
Southern Mainland as northerly outflow winds pick up in intensity.
By the weekend, it appears the Southern Mainland will remain cold
and fairly dry. The active weather will stay over the Bering and
Aleutians where a series of surface fronts attached to a Kamchatka
Low pass over the region.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning 155 161.
 Winter Weather Advisory 181.
 Wind Chill Advisory 155.
MARINE...Gale Warning 150 155 160 165 170>173 175>177 179>181 185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 160 165 179>181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
MARINE/LONG TERM...CK/SB